Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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644
FXUS63 KMKX 300847
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
347 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CURRENT NARROW BANDS OF RADAR RETURNS OVER IOWA...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN IOWA...ON LEADING EDGE
OF 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE TO SRLY
FLOW OVER 850 MB BAROCLINIC RIBBON...AHEAD OF 500 MB LOW OVER THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM
CENTRAL MO INTO SRN IL ON NOSE OF STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE 850 MB LOW CENTRAL KANSAS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTTING
THIS INITIAL FORCING AND MORE ELEVATED MOISTURE AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIMIT PCPN TO
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES UNTIL MID-MORNING...WHEN STEADIER RAIN MOVES
INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

ONE CONCERN IS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE TO 925 MB
CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE INITIALLY CLOSED CIRCULATIONS OVER WRN MO
EARLY THIS MORNING WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT AS THEY CROSS IL TODAY/THIS
EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...SUNDAY MORNING. AN ELONGATION OF
THE 850 MB LOW SHIFTS THE AXIS OF THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE. SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT AHEAD
OF MAIN 500MB LOW HELPS OPEN THE LOW UP AS IT PHASES WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE.

HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE AND
MOISTURE WRAPPING TO THE NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUFFICIENT
FOR CATEGORICAL POPS AND SOME WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. A
SLOW TAPERING OFF OF POPS OVERNIGHT AS STRONGEST FORCING SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
LINGERING DEFORMATION OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL EAST FLOW AND
WITH THE PRECIPITATION...BUT LOWS WILL HOLD AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT.

.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. THE NAM/CANADIAN ARE THE QUICKEST TO END PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THEY BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.

THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT...AND KEEP
LIGHT QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS
BETTER LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OVER THE AREA THAN THE
NAM. THEY ALSO KEEP SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FAR EAST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH THE 850 MB LOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERN IOWA TO NORTHERN INDIANA SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED
SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM NOT AS MOIST BUT STILL SHOWING SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY. SO...WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS GOING FOR SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA...HIGHEST IN THE FAR SOUTH. ALSO KEPT LOW POP
SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PER GFS/ECMWF. BRISK
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY WITH 40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH MID 50S WELL INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION.
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL REMAIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. INLAND
HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. CHILLY LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB DEVELOPING TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...BUT THERE IS WEAK INSTABILITY ON GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
KEPT LOWER END POPS GOING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF BETTER MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND IN LATER
MODEL RUNS.

A WARM DAY AROUND 70 IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS.

500 MB FLOW BECOMES NEARLY DUE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AS 500 MB LOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED TO THE EAST OF
WISCONSIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD...AND BRINGS QUIET WEATHER.

SOME SUNSHINE EACH DAY SHOULD BRING MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND. 50S ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE WITH
ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MVFR STRATUS DECK HAS CLEARED/LIFTED IN THE EAST BUT STILL
AFFECTING THE WESTERN CWA...WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT
GUSTY EAST WINDS AND MVFR CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES AS RAIN SPREADS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM MID-LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH
OVER ILLINOIS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND FETCH SUFFICIENT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY..BEGINNING
AT 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND 21Z FOR THE NORTH...WITH
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BUILDING HIGH WAVES. NORTH
WINDS SUNDAY REMAIN AT CRITERIA INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOWERING. WILL SEE WAVES SUBSIDE BY 00Z MONDAY IN THE NORTH...BUT
WILL KEEP HEADLINE UNTIL 03Z IN THE SOUTH...AS WAVES WILL BE A
BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE THERE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT
     SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD



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