Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 300921
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
521 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A STEADY SE WIND FLOW AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND MORE QUICKLY AND COLLIDE WITH THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE JUST WEST OF LAKE COUNTY NEAR SUNSET. FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE LOW LEVELS
AND A LITTLE MORE SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS FROM THE RIDGE AXIS
ALOFT. SO PRECIP COVERAGE AND THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR THIS AFTN WHERE 15-20 PERCENT POPS ARE DRAWN. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE AN EARLIER END TO THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL REACHING THE LOWER 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR AND MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ADVECT SOME VERY HIGH (CIRRUS) CLOUDS WHICH MAY FILTER THE
SUNSHINE FROM TIME TO TIME. FINALLY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
A STRONGER SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. BREEZY SE WINDS 15-20 MPH
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE CAPE FROM BREVARD
TO MARTIN COUNTIES.

SUN-MON...AN ADDITIONAL DAY OF MOSTLY DRY WX TO FINISH OUT THE
WEEKEND. SFC-MIDLVL RIDGING OVER THE W ATLANTIC JUST OFFSHORE WILL
PROMOTE A CONTINUED MARITIME SE WIND FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF A
RELATIVELY CAPPED AND SOMEWHAT MOISTURE CHALLENGED ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE PNSLA. EMBEDDED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TEAMED WITH PREVAILING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT WHATEVER MODEST CONVECTION OCCURS IS
INITIALLY SHALLOW AND GETS USHERED INLAND AND REALIZED MAINLY NW OF
INTERSTATE 4 IF AT ALL. FOR MON...TRAILING FRONTAL BAND AND
ASSOCIATED MOSITURE RIBBON GETS ADDITIONALLY STRETCHED W/E ACROSS
OLD DIXIE AS SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE U.S. NE COAST. A FLATTENED UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL PROVIDE LITTLE PUSH ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCROACH A LITTLE CLOSER TO NWFL. CONCENTRATED
MOISTURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY TO N OF FORECAST AREA WHILE
CENTRAL PNSLA ATMOSPHERE WILL SIMPLY NEED TO WORK WITH WHAT IT HAS.
20-30 PERCENT POPS LEVERAGED BY SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT/MERGERS WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR THE INTERIOR W OF ORLANDO. CONTINUED WARM WITH MAX TEMPS
U80S/L90S...AND MINS GENERALLY U60S/L70S EACH DAY.

TUE-FRI...AS MID-LATE WEEK PROGRESSES THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE
SHIFTING BUT WITH SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. WHILE SFC RIDGING IS
STILL THE MAJOR GOVERNING INFLUENCE FOR TUE...IT WILL ALSO BE
RETREATING SEAWARD/SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR VEERED S-SSW LOW-LVL
FLOW AND OFFSHORE MOVING CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT FINDS SAIL AND BEGINS ITS SOUTHWARD MIGRATION AS A FRONTAL
WAVE FORMS TO MAKE ASSIST. SOME INCREASE IN MOSITURE WITH SOME
COOLING ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BY WED THE UPPER PATTERN REALIZES SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION WITH A
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST AND HOISTING S-N RIDGING ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S. GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT
OMEGA PATTERN FORMING BY WEEKS END. LOCALLY...EXPECT FROPA WED
TRANSITIONING TO POST-FRONTAL SITUATION THU-FRI. SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE BEST OPPORTUNITY IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
AND LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WED...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG.
DECREASING OPPORTUNITY FOR THU...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE
S-HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN CURBING FOR FRI AS CONTINENTAL
AIR OVERSPREADS IN NW FLOW. MAX TEMPS M/U80S TUE- WED...THEN
L/M80S THU- FRI. LOWS U60S/L70S... BECOMING L/M60S BY THU-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA AFT 18Z AT THE INTERIOR TERMINALS (SFB/MCO/LEE) AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH. THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION
SHOULD OCCUR WEST OF LEE 22Z-00Z. THERE WILL BE HIGH CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD WHICH FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS PUT AT 40K FT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS
INCREASING NEAR 15 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTN WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. PRES GRAD WILL SUPPORT NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING 3 FEET
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT IN A WIND CHOP.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ECFL WATERS AND W ATLANTIC WILL
FURNISH SE WIND FLOW WITH AN ENHANCED ONSHORE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
EACH DAY. WINDS 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 15 KNOTS
IN VICINITY OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE NEAR COAST...ESPECIALLY S OF
CAPE CANAVERAL. BEYOND 20 MILES...10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT
ACROSS ALL WATERS SUN...THEN 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FEET
OFFSHORE ON MON.

TUE-WED...PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT DISTURBED WEATHER WHEN COMPARED TO
THAT AS OF LATE. INCREASING MOSITURE FOR TUE AND AN ANTICIPATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE WED WILL OFFER INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WINDS VEER S-SSW AS SFC RIDGE RETREATS BOTH SEAWARD AND
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BE HIGHER IN VICINITY OF SOME
STRONGER OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL REACH NEAR 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN OVER
THE INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER NEAR
THE COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH ERC VALUES SLOWLY CREEPING UP WITH
LACK OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST...ANY NEW OR ONGOING FIRES MAY SPREAD
RAPIDLY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  70  86  68 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  90  70  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
MLB  85  72  85  70 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  85  70  85  69 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  91  70  90  71 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  90  70  89  69 /  20  10  10  10
ORL  91  70  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  85  70  86  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....DS



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