Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 011250
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...MORNING 915MHZ CAPE WIND PROFILERS SHOW DEEP SSW
FLOW FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH 10.0KFT. KXMR SOUNDING
PROFILE SHOWS VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES (700/500MB, +10.2C/-
5.6C) RESPECTIVELY WITH A DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.68
INCHES. SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND AREAS THAT
RECEIVED ABUNDANT RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
THIS SHOULD BURN OFF SOON.

THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS STILL HANGING ON AND
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE. THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS WILL NOSE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND THE GFS BOTH SHOW DRIER AIR INFILTRATING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FL WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A SLOW START TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY BEGINNING ALONG THE ECSB ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST AND THEN WEST SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ENTERING LAKE
COUNTY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. COLLISIONS OF SEA BREEZE/MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
AFTERWARD BUT TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOCAL MODELS SEEM
SLUGGISH ON COVERAGE LATE TODAY LIKELY A RESULT OF THE DRIER/WARMER
AIR. WILL NOT ALTER CURRENT SCATTERED FORECAST COVERAGE BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST AREAS STAY DRY. HIGHEST OVERALL COVERAGE
REMAINS FORECAST FOR ALONG/NORTH OF I-4.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE AS THREATS. CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. A CHANCE FOR
LINGERING RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS IS FORECAST ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND
N BREVARD COAST THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
OVERNIGHT OVER LAND. CLOUD DEBRIS WILL THIN THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY STUBBORN LLVL FOG DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINS WITH SOME LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF THROUGH MID
MORNING. SCT TSRA FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOTH EAST/WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES ACTIVE. CELL MOTION OUT OF THE SSW AT 10-15 KTS. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING MAINLY KTIX NORTHWARD.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MORNING SW/SSW LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK
TO ESE/SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND MOVEMENT
INLAND. WINDS WILL AGAIN VEER TO SSW/SW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS BUT MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WHILE DRIER AIR IS IN
PLACE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING MAY VENTURE OFF
OF THE COAST MAINLY N OF THE CAPE. SEAS 2-3 FT OFFSHORE AND 1-2 FT
NEAR SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...BACK TO OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE STORMS DRIVEN BY SEA AND LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. BUT BECAUSE THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HAS SATURATED THE
GROUND IN SOME PLACES...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN FROM SCATTERED STORMS
WILL BE MORE APT TO CREATE STANDING WATER AND AGGRAVATE ONGOING
FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/VOLKMER



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