Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 270047
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
847 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016
TONIGHT...Low level east winds are quite breezy, around 20 knots.
The 18z GFS shows an area of high moisture pushing into the
Space/Treasure Coast. Radar has been showing a convergence line
over the Atlantic extending into southern Brevard with isolated
cells southward to Martin county. The latest MOS PoPs in this area
were 50-60 percent, but the current forecast has values of 40
percent which are well above climo, so probably won`t make any
changes in the evening update. So far, shower lines have been well
dispersed up and down the coast, but with the high moisture and
breezy low level winds, will have to watch for local heavy rain if
showers become repeating over the same area. A small lightning
threat will also linger.
Areas north of Canaveral have had minimal shower activity and the
GFS has been showing lower precipitable water advecting into that
region. Hence, the chance for onshore moving showers looks no
greater than 20 percent. Cannot rule out showers reaching interior
sections with the brisk low level flow.
.AVIATION...South of KTIX-KMCO, especially along the coast, there is
a chance of MVFR in/near showers and a slight chance of brief IFR.
Northern terminals look mainly VFR overnight, though stratocumulus
ceilings could briefly be MVFR. On Saturday, morning clouds/showers
along the coast mainly KTIX-KSUA will bring a chance of MVFR and
brief IFR in the morning, then the focus for showers with heavy rain
and brief MVFR-IFR will shift to the interior terminals during the
Tonight-Saturday...Poor conditions for small craft operation exist
in the open Atlantic with east winds around 15 knots at 41009 and
likely extending into our northern waters. Seas have been running
5-6 feet at that buoy and even around 4 feet at the near shore
An inverted trough (tropical wave) will move through the
central/northern Bahamas through Saturday. This will maintain the
pressure gradient and possibly even tighten it a bit in the southern
waters. Additionally, scattered showers and isolated storms are
expected to linger past sunrise from about Cape Canaveral southward.
So boating conditions will continue poor.
Will keep exercise caution statement in the north two offshore
zones overnight. This may need expansion across much of the
southern waters for Saturday.