Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 010846
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PUSHING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS
WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH BREEZY CONDS ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY TODAY AND MOS POPS ALONG THE COAST REMAIN
10 PERCENT OR LESS. MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC TODAY AND MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD AS LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY IS ALREADY STARTING TO SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS.
HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL SO WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. SCATTERED MARINE STRATOCU WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INLAND THROUGH THE DAY WITH SKIES PARTLY SUNNY AND
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INTO TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS NORTH OF ORLANDO LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY CONDS WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

MON-MON NIGHT...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND OFFSHORE. THE MAIN ENERGY WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT A
BAND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES IS PROGGED ALONG/AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MOS POPS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE NORTH TO
30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH. THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE
LACKING...DO NOT WANT TO UNDERCUT MOS TOO MUCH AS A BAND OF LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SOME RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE NORTH.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING...HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY
OCCUR IN THE SOUTH...BUT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
WITH TIME...SO THE LOWER POPS THERE LOOK OKAY.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS MON
NIGHT INTO THE 40S FOR THE INTERIOR AND DOWN TO THE SPACE COAST.
QUICK VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE TREASURE COAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 50S.

TUE-SAT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
WED. AFTER A CHILLY START TUE MORNING...THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS
WILL GRADUALLY BE MODIFIED BY ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH WED. CONSENSUS
POPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WED SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST TUE-WED.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL HANDLING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT AT LEAST A WEAK LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM THE GULF ON THU.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE MORE DEFINITION OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
IS NOW A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE LOW. IN ANY
EVENT...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RAISE POPS TO AT LEAST 50-60
PERCENT ON THU.

THE LOW SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST BY FRI WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER ECMWF BRINGS MORE DRYING WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS WINDS SWINGING ONSHORE QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI THEN CONFINE THEM TO
THE COAST ON SAT. THE QUICKER ONSHORE FLOW ALSO WOULD LIMIT EXTENT
OF COLD ADVECTION...BUT CONSENSUS VALUES SHOW FRI-SAT TO BE AT
LEAST A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SCT-BKN MARINE STRATOCU ONSHORE
WITH ANY CIGS AOA 4K FT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS
AFT 14Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. MAY NEED TO ADD
A PERIOD OF LLWS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY ACROSS NRN
TERMINALS DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL S/SW WINDS UP TO
AROUND 35 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHES THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE PERSISTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SEAS UP
TO 6 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

WIND SPEEDS THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
INTO TONIGHT WITH BOATING CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SCA STARTING OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA
COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

MON-THU...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE OPEN
ATLANTIC AHEAD/BEHIND A COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES WILL CONTINUE.
CONDITIONS NEAR SHORE WILL ALSO BE MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO EASE ON TUE BUT NORTH WINDS
NEAR 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING MAY LINGER AND KEEP CONDITIONS POOR
IN THE GULF STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY BUILD SEAWARD THROUGH WED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING ABOUT A 10 KNOT ONSHORE WIND.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THU. WE DO NOT HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WINDS YET WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS THE
MODELS GET MORE HONED IN ON IT...EXPECT A PERIOD OF INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU OR THU NIGHT...THEN INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...BRISK SOUTHEAST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER DISPERSION VALUES ANTICIPATED. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MITIGATE ANY LOW RH CONCERNS.

MON-THU...BRISK SOUTHWEST/WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ON MON
AND LEAD TO QUITE HIGH DISPERSION AGAIN. FRONTAL BAND MOISTURE
WILL MITIGATE LOW RH CONCERNS. BRIEF COOLING/DRYING WILL OCCUR TUE
BUT WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED NO LOW
RH CONCERNS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING IS FORECAST FOR THU WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  62  73  40 /  10  20  60  10
MCO  75  60  77  44 /   0  10  60  10
MLB  72  62  78  46 /  10  10  50  10
VRB  74  63  82  52 /  10  10  50  20
LEE  75  62  71  41 /   0  20  60  10
SFB  74  60  74  40 /   0  10  60  10
ORL  74  61  74  44 /   0  10  60  10
FPR  75  63  82  52 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....LASCODY



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