Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 161425
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT PARKED OVER THE FL STRAITS THIS MRNG WITH A BRISK NRLY
POST FRONTAL SURGE GENERATING RESPECTABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MRNG
MIN TEMPS MANAGED TO DROP INTO THE M/U40S N OF I-4 WITH KDAB
REPORTING 48F...KLEE AT 47F. MORNING RAOBS...USAF 915HZ PROFILER...
AND THE KJAX/KMLB VAD WIND PROFILERS ALL SHOWING 25-30KT WINDS BTWN
THE SFC AND 3KFT. TIGHT POST FRNTL SFC PGRAD IN PLACE AS WELL WITH
KJAX-KMFL ARND 6MB...KDAB-KPBI ARND 4MB. GEOSTROPHIC APPROX TABLES
SHOW THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-25KT SFC WNDS. ATTM...ONLY THE COASTAL
SITES ARE GUSTING IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...BUT SHOULD PICK UP OVER
THE INTERIOR BY MIDDAY...ESP N OF KISM-KTIX WHERE THE FRONTAL
STRATUS BAND HAS CLEARED. WILL EXPAND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES.

A STRONG POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE BLO H90. FRONTAL STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN LARGELY INTACT
S OF KISM-KTIX. MID MRNG TEMPS RANGING FROM THE M/U50S ALONG AND N
OF I-4...L/M60S TO THE S. GIVEN COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...AFTN TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THEIR
ADVERTISED LVLS...WILL KNOCK A FEW DEG OFF THE MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
N OF KISM-KTIX: THRU 18Z...SFC WNDS BCMG N/NE WITH G20-25KTS CONTG
THRU 00Z. PREVAILING VFR THRU 00Z WITH OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060.
BTWN 00Z-04Z...MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-030...AFT 04Z MVFR CIGS BTWN
FL010-020 WITH BRIEF PDS BLO FL010...CHC MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRAS.

S OF KISM-KTIX: THRU 04Z...N/NE SFC WND G20-25KTS...PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS BTWN FL020-030 WITH OCNL BINOVC...SLGT CHC MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRA.
AFT 04Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN FL010-020...CHC MVFR VSBYS IN
SHRAS.

&&

MARINE...
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WITH LCL DATA/BUOY-C-MAN STATIONS
MEASURING SUSTAINED WINDS BTWN 15-25KTS...NEARSHORE SEAS 5-6FT WITH
DOMINANT PDS ARND 6SEC...OFFSHORE SEAS BTWN 6-7FT WITH DOMINANT PDS
ARND 7SEC. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-7FT NEARSHORE AND 8-9FT
OFFSHORE AS NRLY SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS VEER TO THE NE...LCL PGRAD WILL
SUPPORT A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE. VERY STEEP WAVES AS THE OPPOSING
NRLY WIND FIELD/SRLY GULF STREAM WILL KEEP DOMINANT PDS AOB 7SEC. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT SCA.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BLOTTMAN





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