Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281947
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
345 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...Low level easterly flow will veer to ESE overnight in the
925-850 mb layer. Late afternoon and early evening convection across
the interior and srn zones should push west of the area into late
evening. Will continue with isolated to scattered showers/storms in
these areas through around 10 pm across the interior before activity
diminishes. Convective mid/upper level cloudiness will linger to
around midnight with SW steering flow aloft then decreasing clouds
late. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.

Thursday-Friday...Weak mid level anticyclone over northern Bahamas
drifts slowly west toward southern peninsula. Precipitable waters
values below 2.0 inches Thu rises a few tenths of an inch Fri as
narrow swath of lower PW remains to the south. Rather light surface
pressure gradient across region Thu as ridge axis remains far to the
north, allowing for stronger/earlier Atlantic sea breeze
formation/motion. Late morning/early afternoon scattered storms for
coastal counties, increasing to 50 POPs inland during afternoon.
Increased moisture Fri with active Atlantic/Gulf sea breezes
suggests high storm coverage (50-60 percent) for most of CWA, with a
little lower chances along lower Treasure Coast where convergence
should penetrate inland earlier. Should be enough SW/W steering flow
both afternoons to allow scattered late day/evening convection to
work back toward the east coast, mainly Volusia/Brevard Counties.
Max/Min temps near normal to a few degrees above.

Saturday-Tuesday...Above normal, deep-layer moisture continues to
pool across region, with PW values 2.0-2.2 inches. Mid level
anticyclone transitions across southern peninsula then remains over
far eastern Gulf. Low level ridge axis, albeit weak, becomes
established across south-central peninsula over the weekend,
possibly meandering a little northward Mon/Tue. With light flow
regime, but favoring onshore component, within high moisture
environment, expect diurnally active sea breeze convection through
the period. Highest coverage generally inland (50-60 percent), but
scattered convection expected across coastal counties as well (30-50
percent, highest north half). Over the weekend, steering flow
expected to be light easterly across the south and light
west/southwest across the north, bringing some late day convection
back toward the east coast late. By Mon/Tue, N/NE steering flow may
become a little stronger, which would allow greatest coverage of
convection to impact interior peninsula by late afternoon/evening.
Max temps near climo, with mins a few degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Convection will move inland away from KVRB-KSUA terminals through
late afternoon with scattered convection in the KSFB-KISM corridor
at 20z moving westward toward KLEE between 21z and 23z. Mid and
upper level cloudiness will decrease after midnight with mainly VFR
conditions late.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Easterly winds expected to around 10 knots with seas 2 ft
nearshore to 2-3 ft offshore. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms possible across the southern waters and offshore gulf stream
waters overnight.

Thursday through Friday...Light east winds Thu, become south to
southeast Friday to around 10 knots, with enhanced sea breezes near
shore each day. Seas 1-2 ft nearshore and 2-3 ft offshore. Scattered
thunderstorms, especially nearshore mid day into the early
afternoons, and possibly moving offshore Volusia/Brevard Counties
during the evenings.

Saturday through Sunday...South to southeast winds to around 10
knots. Favorable seas, 1-2 ft nearshore and 2-3 ft offshore.
Scattered thunderstorms...most likely mid day and again during the
late afternoon/early moving offshore Volusia/Brevard Counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  76  90 /  10  30  30  50
MCO  74  92  75  94 /  10  40  20  60
MLB  76  89  77  90 /  10  30  20  50
VRB  73  90  76  91 /  20  30  20  50
LEE  75  92  75  94 /  20  50  30  60
SFB  74  92  75  94 /  10  40  20  60
ORL  75  92  75  93 /  10  40  20  60
FPR  73  90  76  90 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT/MID/LONG TERM...Volkmer/Combs
AVIATION/RADAR/DSS....Kelly



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