Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 230144
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
944 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...POOR BOATING/HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
...RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...FOR TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
CONTINUE SLOW MOVEMENT THIS EVENING FROM SRN LAKE COUNTY TO LAKE
KISSIMMEE WITH AN OUT FLOW BOUNDARY MOVING BACK TWD THE EAST COAST
ACROSS OSCEOLA AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. INCREASED POPS SRN
LAKE/WRN OSCEOLA BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BUT STILL EXPECT DIMINISHING
TREND THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM. FORECAST MODELS HAVE NE ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE LOWEST LVLS VEERING MORE TO THE ENE/E BY SUNRISE. 18Z NAM/GFS
HINT AT SOME SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT FOR THE NRN ATLC WATERS LATE
LIKELY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER NE/ENE FLOW TO OUR
NORTH. WILL ADD SOME SHOWER CHANCES THERE OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE
DRYING TREND OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO THE MID 70S MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

SATURDAY...18Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH HIGHER SHOWER/TSTM CHCS WELL INLAND ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE COUNTY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...EVENING CONVECTION HAS STAYED MAINLY WEST OF KISM BUT
MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL BTWN 02Z-03Z. SOME MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KVRB
BUT SHOULD NOT THRU THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY WEST OF KMCO/KSFB SAT AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...NE FLOW TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND 10-15 KNOTS NORTH
WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT BUILDING TO 3-4 FT ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE NRN WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  84  73  85 /  10  20  10  20
MCO  72  91  72  91 /  10  20  10  20
MLB  74  86  77  85 /  20  20  10  20
VRB  72  88  74  86 /  20  20  10  20
LEE  73  90  73  91 /  10  20  10  20
SFB  73  89  73  89 /  10  20  10  20
ORL  73  89  73  89 /  10  20  10  20
FPR  71  88  74  86 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

VOLKMER/WEITLICH



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