Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 300136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
936 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016


Currently-Tonight...A few boundary interactions had generated some
last gasp showers/storms where pockets of instability lingered. This
convection will dissipate before midnight, then the debris
cloudiness will gradually diminish, though it may be rather
slow since the mid-upper level winds are quite light.

Memorial Day...Not much change in the pattern is indicated.  The 18z
GFS showed higher moisture lingering over the southern third of the
Florida peninsula and generated the most precip there.  The model
showed this yesterday for today`s forecast, yet boundary initiated
convection in the south propagated scattered convection northward
into the less moist air mass, especially the central interior.  The
current forecast follows more of a blended model approach showing
scattered afternoon showers/storms with highest values in the south
(50 percent) and lowest in the north (30 percent).  500 mb temps are
still forecast to be quite cool (minus 9-10C), so strong storms are
expected again.  Isolated severe storms are possible where the
strongest boundary interactions occur.


Any lingering showers/storms will dissipate before midnight then it
will be VFR until afternoon storms fire again on Monday along sea
breezes and boundary interactions.  The highest coverage is
indicated KMLB-KSUA and points westward, but storms should propagate
northward into the inland TAF sites later in the day (I-4 corridor
and KLEE).


Tonight-Memorial Day...A weak high pressure ridge over the waters
will provide light winds.  The primary wave component will be from
an 8-9 second swell (3 feet or less).  The afternoon sea breeze will
kick off scattered storms again.  Storm motion will be slow and
erratic again. A few strong storms could affect coastal sections
especially south of Cape Canaveral. Boaters on inland lakes will
experience the greatest coverage and strongest storms again, so plan
to head back to shore before storms approach in the afternoon.


.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


IMPACT WX/RADAR/DSS...Weitlich/Cristaldi
FORECASTS...Lascody is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.