


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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832 FXUS66 KOTX 182238 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 338 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal high temperatures today with upper 80s and 90s. - Dry conditions and gusty winds to result in critical fire weather conditions for portions of central and eastern Washington through this evening. - Cooling temperatures back into the 80s to low 90s this weekend with continued breezy winds. - Thunderstorm chances increase over the mountains Monday and Tuesday. && .SYNOPSIS... Hot temperatures and breezy winds are resulting in critical fire danger today as a cold front approaches the region. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected this weekend and then showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast early next week. && .DISCUSSION... RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY... Hot, dry, and windy conditions are prevailing early this Friday afternoon as a cool front approaches the Pacific Northwest. High clouds are increasing with weak radar echoes approaching the northern Cascade mountains. The strongest winds are expected to be in the lee of the Cascades through the normal windy gaps including Wenatchee. Winds currently are gusting 18 to 25 mph but are expected to increase to around 30 mph later this afternoon with the arrival of the front. Precipitation should be limited to sprinkles as the front moves across the region with the exception of a few showers near the Canadian border. Saturday will be about 5-10 deg cooler across the area but still a bit breezy. At this time, we expect to let the Red Flag Warning expire this evening and then will reevaluate whether an additional one is needed for a smaller area tomorrow. Sunday and Monday will see a change in the weather pattern as a trough deepens overhead thanks to a high amplitude ridge over the north Pacific. The lowering heights will bring slightly cooler than normal temperatures to the region and increased instability. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over the northern mountains Sunday afternoon (20-40%) and then become more widespread Monday (30-60%). In addition, the steering flow under the trough is very weak so any thunderstorms that develop will move slowly and have the potential of producing abundant rain. This is a hazard that we have not forecast too many times this summer so we`ll need to pay particular attention to PWAT, instability, and storm motion. If the thunderstorm potential develops over steep terrain or any recent large fires, the risk for flash flooding will increase. We will begin to message this increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, particularly over the mountains, beginning Monday and in to Tuesday. Wednesday and beyond...temperatures moderate close to normal for this time of year in the upper 80s to low 90s. The upper trough will weaken and shear apart leaving more stable air over us late in the week. Outside of marginal fire danger with warm temperatures and typical diurnal breezes, no additional hazards are expected late next week. /AB && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: A cold front will push through this evening. This will bring some bkn-ovc middle to high clouds this evening, then decreasing clouds. Some showers and isolated -tsra are possible near the Canadian border counties tonight to early Saturday and again Saturday afternoon, including near Colville to Bonners Ferry, possibly as far south as Sandpoint. Elsewhere a slim chance of a passing shower will be found this evening and overnight, but these are more likely to be sprinkles if anything. The main TAF sites that has the best chance of seeing anything is KCOE between 05-09Z. Otherwise look for VFR conditions. Winds will remain gusty through about 03-05Z this evening, gusting near 20-30kts. Another increase in winds with gusts up to 20kts or so expected Saturday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence that VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites. Low confidence in showers at TAF sites. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 60 84 56 82 58 81 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 Coeur d`Alene 60 84 56 82 58 80 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 Pullman 58 80 50 79 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Lewiston 70 90 61 88 65 85 / 10 0 0 0 0 20 Colville 49 84 48 82 49 78 / 10 10 10 10 10 40 Sandpoint 55 80 51 79 54 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 30 Kellogg 63 79 58 78 61 76 / 10 0 0 0 0 20 Moses Lake 59 89 56 86 59 85 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 62 87 62 87 65 85 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 Omak 57 89 58 87 60 85 / 10 0 0 10 20 40 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)- Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709) -Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...&& $$