832
FXUS66 KOTX 182238
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
338 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal high temperatures today with upper 80s and 90s.

- Dry conditions and gusty winds to result in critical fire
  weather conditions for portions of central and eastern
  Washington through this evening.

- Cooling temperatures back into the 80s to low 90s this weekend
  with continued breezy winds.

- Thunderstorm chances increase over the mountains Monday and
  Tuesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and breezy winds are resulting in critical fire
danger today as a cold front approaches the region. Slightly
cooler temperatures are expected this weekend and then showers
and thunderstorms return to the forecast early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON FRIDAY...

Hot, dry, and windy conditions are prevailing early this Friday
afternoon as a cool front approaches the Pacific Northwest.
High clouds are increasing with weak radar echoes approaching
the northern Cascade mountains. The strongest winds are expected
to be in the lee of the Cascades through the normal windy gaps
including Wenatchee. Winds currently are gusting 18 to 25 mph
but are expected to increase to around 30 mph later this
afternoon with the arrival of the front. Precipitation should be
limited to sprinkles as the front moves across the region with
the exception of a few showers near the Canadian border.

Saturday will be about 5-10 deg cooler across the area but
still a bit breezy. At this time, we expect to let the Red Flag
Warning expire this evening and then will reevaluate whether an
additional one is needed for a smaller area tomorrow.

Sunday and Monday will see a change in the weather pattern as a
trough deepens overhead thanks to a high amplitude ridge over
the north Pacific. The lowering heights will bring slightly
cooler than normal temperatures to the region and increased
instability. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop
over the northern mountains Sunday afternoon (20-40%) and then
become more widespread Monday (30-60%). In addition, the
steering flow under the trough is very weak so any thunderstorms
that develop will move slowly and have the potential of
producing abundant rain. This is a hazard that we have not
forecast too many times this summer so we`ll need to pay
particular attention to PWAT, instability, and storm motion. If
the thunderstorm potential develops over steep terrain or any
recent large fires, the risk for flash flooding will increase.

We will begin to message this increased confidence in scattered
to numerous thunderstorms, particularly over the mountains,
beginning Monday and in to Tuesday.

Wednesday and beyond...temperatures moderate close to normal
for this time of year in the upper 80s to low 90s. The upper
trough will weaken and shear apart leaving more stable air over
us late in the week. Outside of marginal fire danger with warm
temperatures and typical diurnal breezes, no additional hazards
are expected late next week. /AB


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front will push through this evening. This will
bring some bkn-ovc middle to high clouds this evening, then
decreasing clouds. Some showers and isolated -tsra are possible
near the Canadian border counties tonight to early Saturday and
again Saturday afternoon, including near Colville to Bonners
Ferry, possibly as far south as Sandpoint. Elsewhere a slim
chance of a passing shower will be found this evening and
overnight, but these are more likely to be sprinkles if
anything. The main TAF sites that has the best chance of seeing
anything is KCOE between 05-09Z. Otherwise look for VFR
conditions. Winds will remain gusty through about 03-05Z this
evening, gusting near 20-30kts. Another increase in winds with
gusts up to 20kts or so expected Saturday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
that VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites. Low
confidence in showers at TAF sites.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        60  84  56  82  58  81 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  60  84  56  82  58  80 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        58  80  50  79  54  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       70  90  61  88  65  85 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       49  84  48  82  49  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  40
Sandpoint      55  80  51  79  54  77 /  10  10  10  10  10  30
Kellogg        63  79  58  78  61  76 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Moses Lake     59  89  56  86  59  85 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      62  87  62  87  65  85 /   0   0   0   0  10  30
Omak           57  89  58  87  60  85 /  10   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Eastern
     Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-
     Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower
     Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709) -Waterville Plateau (Zone
     706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
ID...&&

$$