490
FXUS66 KOTX 150517
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1017 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong cold front from the north today delivering windy
  conditions. Brief damaging winds possible for the Okanogan
  Valley, northern mountains, and north Idaho Panhandle.

- Areas of blowing dust on the Waterville Plateau and Moses
  Lake area Monday evening.

- Showers and a 30-40% chance of thunderstorms over the ID
  Panhandle and NE Washington Monday evening.

- Much cooler temperatures Tuesday across Eastern Washington and
  North Idaho with blustery northeast winds.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Big weather will arrive through the evening as a strong cold
front moves through the region from the north. The front will
deliver windy conditions from the north and northwest, and
critical fire weather conditions for much of Eastern Washington.
This system will also deliver rain showers and a chance of
thunderstorms to the Idaho Panhandle, and a chance of showers
and thunderstorms over NE Washington. Tuesday will be cooler
with breezy northeast winds. Temperatures warm into the end of
the week, with occasional shower and thunderstorms chances near
the Canadian border and periodic breezy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: A compact low pressure system will bring
significant winds through this evening as it delivers a strong
cold front from the north. Damaging wind gusts, blowing dust,
critical fire weather conditions, and thunderstorms are impacts
we continue to monitor into the evening.

* Winds: As of 140 PM, the front had gone through Oroville, WA
  which is notoriously one of the sites that receives the
  strongest gusts in these situations with a gust of 68 MPH
  recorded. As of 2 PM the Kelowna to Omak pressure gradient was
  near it`s peak at 9 mb, which is comparable to other historic
  high wind events that have occurred in the Okanogan Valley.
  As the front continues to push south, high winds will push
  south into Omak before reaching the Waterville Plateau with
  gusts up to 55 MPH. Over NE WA and the ID Panhandle, a burst
  of wind will occur as well, with gusts of 40-50 MPH producing
  potential tree damage. The wind burst will reach the Spokane
  area this evening with a wind shift from west to north or
  northwest. A very sharp pressure rise will also occur in the
  North Panhandle producing strong north to northeast winds
  through the Purcell Trench into Sandpoint and Coeur d`Alene
  this evening. A tight pressure gradient and cold advection
  will allow for windy conditions to persist overnight, although
  with a gradual decrease in speeds going into Tuesday morning.
  Several wind advisories are in effect, as well as a High Wind
  Warning for the Okanogan Valley.

* Fire Weather: Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for much of
  Central and Eastern Washington through 11 PM this evening. In
  addition to the warm and breezy conditions ahead of the front,
  the burst of wind with the front passage and gusty winds
  behind it raises concerns for new fire starts. One piece of
  good news is that relative humidity will increase behind the
  front thanks to rain cooled air over southern British
  Columbia. Yet with wind often the driving factor for fire
  spread there is concern for fire growth with any new or
  existing fires in Central and Eastern Washington. As winds
  shift to northeast overnight into Tuesday, breezy conditions
  will continue to be a concern for any new fires for the
  Okanogan Valley, down through the Columbia Basin as daytime
  relative humidity on Tuesday drops into the 20-25% range.

* Blowing Dust: Winds of this magnitude spreading south onto
  the Waterville Plateau and around the Moses Lake area combined
  with very dry soils is likely to kick up blowing dust. Given
  we are not in planting season confidence in precise amounts
  and impacts carries lower confidence.

* Shower/Thunderstorm Potential: As the low tracks over NE
  Washington towards the Central Panhandle Mountains Monday
  Night into Tuesday morning, this places the North ID Panhandle
  and Pend Oreille county in the NE quadrant of the low. How far
  west and south the showers extend carries lower confidence,
  but wetting rains are possible around Metaline Falls,
  Sandpoint, and Bonners Ferry. Thunderstorms are also possible
  Monday evening in these same areas.

Tuesday night to Monday: The Inland NW will be in a somewhat
active northwesterly flow, with the occasional shortwave coming
into western Canada and dropping south into our area. First
Tuesday night into Wednesday one wave exits and shortwave
ridging builds in. Clouds will be limited, but some area of haze
and smoke from regional wildfires will linger. Winds remain
north to northeasterly through early Wednesday, then start to
turn more southerly again ahead of the next shortwave.
Temperatures warm back into the mid-80s to mid-90s Wednesday.

Between Wednesday night and Thursday and again toward Friday
into Monday a couple shortwave systems drop in from the north.
Limited shower and t-storm chance will be found near the
Canadian border Thursday afternoon. Wind will increase from the
north again Thursday, through the Okanogan Valley to western
basin, but will remain west to southwest over the southeastern
WA and lower ID. Right now speeds are forecast between 10-20
mph with gusts near 15-30 mph over Okanogan Valley into the
Columbia Basin into the Palouse. Heading into Friday through
Monday the next wave comes in is a bit stronger, carving out a
broader trough over the region. Friday remains dry, then shower
and t-storm chances will be found near the Canadian border each
afternoon between Saturday and Monday.

Winds turning more southwest to westerly throughout the region
Friday and Saturday, winds speeds of 15-25 mph and gusts 20-40
mph. The winds look strongest on Saturday. These periods will
have to be monitored for possible fire weather concerns. However
at the moment models do show RH values increasing, though it
will be close. So this will be monitored. Temperatures warm into
the upper 80s and 90s Friday and Saturday, then cool closer to
normal with 80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday. /Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: North to northeast winds will remain gusty overnight
and into Tuesday morning for most of the region. Convection
will dwindle over northeast WA and North ID through the night
but could bring gusty and erratic winds to the area for the next
couple of hours as well as infrequent cloud to ground
lightning and brief heavy rain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
that VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites. Low
confidence on how smoke/haze will impact smaller airports from
Omak (KOMK) to Colville (KCQV) to Sandpoint (KSZT) early Tuesday
morning as smoke could be trapped in the morning inversions.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        59  77  54  86  58  92 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  59  77  53  85  58  89 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        54  79  49  84  54  88 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       66  89  60  94  65  97 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       61  78  42  85  48  88 /  60  20   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      62  73  47  81  52  84 /  80  50   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        58  70  53  82  60  87 /  50  40  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     67  86  57  91  61  95 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      63  88  63  92  66  96 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           63  88  57  91  61  94 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -
     Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington
     Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse  -Snake River (Zone
     709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and
     Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-
     Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin
     (Zone 707).

     Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands.

     High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Okanogan
     Valley.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Waterville
     Plateau.
ID...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for
     Coeur d`Alene Area-Northern Panhandle.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Coeur d`Alene
     Area-Lewiston Area.

&&

$$