Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 241734 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1032 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO
MOST LOCATIONS AS IT MOVES NORTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
15 MPH TODAY, BUT WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS TONIGHT. ALSO SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. OVERALL FORECASTS
WERE ON TRACK WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. DID MAKE SOME
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND DID RAISE POPS IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY AS A STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
WILL RANGE FROM 6000-7000 FEET. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN DIVERGING BY DAY 6...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON THE HIGH
DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE MID WEEK. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...FORECASTING CIGS AND VSBYS REMAINS A
CHALLENGE DUE TO THE COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INLAND. RAIN
TODAY WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR...AND
LOCALLY IFR. RAIN HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO KRDM AND KBDN AND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE OR/WA BORDER BY 21Z THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON BY 00Z. THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT
THAT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW RADIATIONAL FOG AT KPSC BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN EASTERLY
SURFACE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE CREATING STRATUS CLOUDS AT KDLS OVERNIGHT.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  46  59  45 /  60  30  20  30
ALW  58  49  60  49 /  50  60  20  30
PSC  59  45  62  48 /  20  60  20  30
YKM  53  40  56  41 /  20  70  30  40
HRI  58  43  62  46 /  40  50  20  30
ELN  56  39  56  40 /  10  70  30  40
RDM  56  38  58  36 /  80  10  20  40
LGD  56  43  63  44 /  60  20  20  30
GCD  57  42  62  42 /  80  10  20  40
DLS  55  45  60  47 /  70  70  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82






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