Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 301043 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
343 AM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN IDAHO TODAY
AND INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW HAVE BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF
WASHINGTON STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE
ALSO WORKED INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OREGON. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
TO AFFECT THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON,
THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
PERSIST FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES JUST TO THE EAST. ACROSS CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND OREGON, AN INCREASINGLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS FAIR WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM
AROUND 10 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS PRECIP. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WALLOWA COUNTY THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL WARM FURTHER, REACHING THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST GRANT AND SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY ON SUNDAY AS
THE PREVIOUS LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.  SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THESE
AREAS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

AS WE MOVE INTO MID WEEK...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.  AT THE SAME
TIME A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST.  THIS WILL ENHANCE A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
THE AREA...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  BEST CHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO START ACROSS THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON AREA ON
TUESDAY...AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.  THIS SCENARIO HAS A GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH
HIGH MODEL QPF...FAVORING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DECENT
WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EXTENDED AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NEAR TERM.

HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S FOR THE EXTENDED...AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MOUNTAINS. SO OVERALL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. ON THE
CHANCE THAT A SHOWER OR TWO MOVES OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES...THEN
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE 5 TO
15 KTS...WITH SOME TAF SITES GUSTING TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  44  75  47 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  67  48  76  51 /  20   0   0   0
PSC  73  45  80  46 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  74  43  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  72  42  79  45 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  72  42  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  65  33  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  60  42  71  42 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  63  37  74  42 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  73  45  83  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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