Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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910
FXUS66 KPDT 212014
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
114 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...Dry westerly flow will be
over the area tonight for mostly clear skies and mild temperatures.
On Saturday into Sunday the ridge over the swrn states will build
northward across the PACNW causing increasingly warm temperatures
but a continuation of mostly dry weather. Highs on Saturday will
climb into the low to middle 90s lower elevations and by Sunday
upper 90s. By Sunday evening there will be a slight chance for
thunderstorms over the central Oregon Mountains as as a weak closed
low approaches the nrn CA coast and attempts to displace the ridge.
On Monday the threat for thunderstorms will increase somewhat late
in the day and early into the evening but be confined to southern
portions of the forecast area as the low remains off the nrn CA
coast and the ridge stays firm over eastern Oregon. This could lead
to some fire weather concerns (see discussion below). It will remain
hot on Monday with highs in the mid 90s lower elevations and 80s in
the mountains.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday.  The upper low off the
northern coast of California will be starting to move inland and
northeast Monday night with some moisture spreading into central
Oregon and along the south portions of the Blue Mountains.  The low
is expected to open and move northeast on Tuesday/Tuesday night with
more moisture and instability to bring scattered showers and a
chance of thunderstorms from central Oregon northeast along and
south of the Blue Mountains.  The system will move east out of the
area on Wednesday with some lingering showers/and a slight chance of
thunderstorms mainly along the eastern border of Oregon.  Dry
westerly flow will return to region for Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures in the lower elevations will be quite warm with mid and
upper 90s on Tuesday and then slightly cooler with mid 80s to lower
90s through the rest of the period.  The mountains should see 80s to
lower 90s on Tuesday and then 80s through the rest of the week. 93

&&

.AVIATION...00z Tafs.  VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours.  Mainly clear skies will continue overnight with some high
level cirrus clouds over Washington.  Winds will be light overnight
and at most locations Saturday.  KDLS will see stronger winds 10-
15kt with gusts to 20kt during the afternoon hours.  93

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Low amplitude ridging will result in dry conditions
and a warming trend through the weekend. The next significant fire
weather concern will be thunderstorms for the first half of next
week. Models are coming into a little better agreement with
mid/upper level low pressure digging along the northern CA coast
Sunday into Monday, then opening into a trough and moving
east/northeast Tuesday and Wednesday. With the flow becoming more
toward the southwest, sufficient moisture and instability will work
into the region for some thunderstorm development. Initial storms
would likely develop across Central OR Sunday evening, pushing east
to the southern Blues Monday, then into northeast OR
Tuesday/Wednesday. With limited deep layer moisture initially, will
keep thunderstorm wording at slight chance through Monday. Looks
like the greatest risk will be on Tuesday, and will use chance
wording for thunderstorms. Given significant uncertainty remaining
will not issue any watches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  91  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  65  93  68  98 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  63  94  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  63  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  63  94  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  63  89  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  52  90  55  96 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  54  88  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  56  89  58  97 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  65  92  67  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

78/93/80



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