Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 230911
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP MOIST UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS
WIND. 76

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS.  FLOW
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DON`T PUT OUT
TO MUCH QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS
WELL TUESDAY ONWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES IN THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT
KRDM...KBDN AND PERHAPS KPSC. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE CASCADES IN THE MORNING AFFECTING KYKM AND IN THE AFTERNOON
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KYKM. STORMS WILL BEGIN WINDING DOWN AFTER
24/04Z. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL BUT
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW MORNING EXCEPT
NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AFTER 18Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AFTER 20Z. PERRY

&&

...FIRE WX...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  53  79  51 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  85  57  78  57 /  40  30  10   0
PSC  86  59  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
YKM  78  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
HRI  84  56  80  53 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  75  51  74  52 /  60  30  10  10
RDM  74  38  74  39 /  40  20   0  10
LGD  83  50  72  45 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  82  49  75  48 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  74  57  77  56 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/89








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