Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 012001
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
201 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER HIGH REMAINS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EAST IDAHO. SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP WEDGE OF DRY AIR SPREAD MAINLY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE DIVIDE. MOISTURE STILL ROTATING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. SFC
DEW PTS REMAIN QUITE WARM. RAP/HRRR THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE
CONTINUED TO FOCUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS IN THE UPPER SNAKE REGION...THEN
MOVING THE STORMS INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...LIGHTNING ALREADY OCCURRING IN NORTHERN NEVADA.
BELIEVE THE NEVADA CONVECTION MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY CROSSING THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO IDAHO SO KEPT DRY GRIDS ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER BUT
HAVE NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. AFTER
CONVECTION COLLAPSES LATE THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD
PASS THROUGH MOST OF EAST IDAHO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION APPEAR MINIMAL WITH TEMPS STAYING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HEADED TOWARD THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DMH

.LONG TERM...4TH OF JULY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW IN SOUTH
PACIFIC SHIFTS NORTH AND MERGES WITH DEVELOPING NORTHERN TROUGH AS
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH BC CANADA INTO THE PACNW. CENTER OF UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH TO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION OPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW FOR PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK NORTH TOWARD EAST
IDAHO. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY FOR 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES BUT CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY THEN JUMP QUITE A BIT
HEADED INTO THE WORK WEEK. KEPT CURRENT FCST TREND OF INCREASING
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS REGION COMES UNDER
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF TROUGH ALONG COAST. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD BE A PLAYER IN HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THUS MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AT TAF SITES WITH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE 10 KNOT RANGE AT
BYI...PIH AND IDA.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED THE NEXT THREE
DAYS WIT MOST ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN NEVADA AND UTAH.   THE
GENERAL HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL RATHER ELEVATED COMPARED TO NORMAL BUT COULD SEE A
FEW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES UNDER 15 PERCENT.   THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN IN EARNEST SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SOME MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PUSHING THROUGH IDAHO.  SHOULD ALSO SEE A
SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SUNDAY AS WELL.
GK


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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