Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 250845
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
245 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. The low over eastern
Idaho will continue to weaken and slide east through tomorrow. The
models are showing a bit of variability in placement for showers
and isolated storms, but there is a consistent signal for
development over the central mountains, Upper Snake Highlands and
along the Wyoming border. We COULD see a few cells back toward
Malad and Malta but the potential/confidence is pretty low at the
moment. Once again, expect light to little rainfall and gusty
outflow winds. Heading into tonight and Friday morning, any
lingering showers would occur closer to the Montana border.
Another round of isolated showers and storms is possible again
tomorrow due to what`s left of the trough remaining over the
state. The best chance will be from roughly Galena Summit to
Island Park, then south toward Driggs. Temperatures will remain on
the cool side of normal. We might see a few more low 80s pop up
today and tomorrow. There will be some lingering northeast breezes
this morning but the overall wind pattern remains on the light
side.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday. We quickly transition
to southwest flow by early next. That means a return to dry and
warmer weather this weekend and to start out the last week in
August. The model discrepancies remain from around Tuesday onward.
The GFS has been on the dry side, although the latest run shows
perhaps a better chance of storms Tuesday into Wednesday. This is
due to the model taking a stronger disturbance it was keeping to
our southwest before, and swinging it across Idaho now. After
that, it maintains the main area of low pressure along the west
coast and dry for the most part. The ECMWF is keeping with its
overall "wetter/more stormy" scenario although it`s slow down the
eastward movement of the overall weather pattern. One thing is
for sure, it should remain warmer but temperatures will be
dependent on cloud/storm coverage or lack thereof. In terms of the
chance of showers and storms, we followed what the last forecast
had which was a 10-15% of mountain development at times.  Keyes


&&

.AVIATION...Another minor disturbance embedded in northwest flow
will bring thunderstorms vicinity of KSUN this afternoon. There is
also a slight chance of thunderstorms around KDIJ and Alpine this
afternoon. Smoke from local fires may effect visibility at KIDA.
RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Northwesterly flow pattern continues over
southeast Idaho today with another minor disturbance in the flow to
trigger isolated showers or thunderstorms in the Salmon-Challis
Forest area, near Driggs and possibly near Bear Lake this afternoon.
Temperature lapse rates are quite steep and this will help produce
gusty out flow winds from cloud bases, even if thunder is not heard.
Precipitation will be limited to a trace to 0.03 inches. Surface
pressure gradient will favor north-northeast winds again today but
over all a little weaker. By Friday, this pressure gradient weakens
further and afternoon heating should favor a return to slope driven
winds more. Friday afternoon there is one more disturbance sliding
through Montana, but with more moisture and instability trickling
back into Idaho. Therefore we have included a slight chance of
thunderstorms between Galena Summit, Mackay, and Monida Pass.
Saturday through Monday, mostly dry westerly winds aloft are
forecast, along with temperatures rising back into the middle and
upper 80s for the lower valleys. Unfortunately, humidity also
finds it`s way back into the single digits at lower elevations.
RS

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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