Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 290141
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
241 PM SST TUE MAR 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED
WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OVER NORTH...EAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS OF THE FCST ZONES. AT SURFACE...GFS
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTS AT BRINGING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH CONFLICTS
THE 500 TO 200 MB WIND AND VORTICITY MODELS. CLEARLY...A LOT OF
WEATHER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AFTER
TONIGHT. PERHAPS...MOST OF THIS EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL PASS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL EITHER MOVE OVER OR MISS THE ZONES
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER WEDNESDAY. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT MATERIALIZING
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANU`A STARTING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS SITUATION WILL CREATE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HUMID AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FCST ZONES THROUGH SHORT TERM. THEREFORE...
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ZONES
AND HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVER COASTAL WATERS
EAST AND NORTH OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. INTERESTINGLY...
CLOUD REMNANTS FROM THIS WEATHER PHENOMENON WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
REGION THUS ALLOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER
AND NEAR THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION
CLOSELY BEFORE UPDATING THE SHOWER COVERAGE. HENCE...LOCAL WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT THROUGH LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...REMNANTS OF A SOUTH SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SEA HEIGHTS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL III SHOWS LARGE
NW SWELLS UP TO 7 FT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AROUND SAVAII AND UPOLU WATERS
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SW SWELL ACROSS THE SAMOAN WATERS. AS A
RESULT...ANTICIPATE COMBINED SEAS TO REMAIN NEAR MODERATE LEVELS
AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE EXPECTED NW AND
SW SWELLS AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM SST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

CB






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