Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 270058
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
158 PM SST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F (TD05F) HAVE
INTENSIFIED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. AS OF 10 AM SST...TD05F WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1S AND
170.8W...ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH OF TUTUILA OR ABOUT 220 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MANU`A. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO MOVE TD05F
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...THEN INTENSIFY IT WHEN IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN
COOK ISLANDS SUNDAY MORNING. UNLIKE SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS...MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN POOR IN FORECASTING THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT HAS BEEN DOWNPLAYING THIS
SYSTEM...AND IT CONTINUES TO KEEP IT AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS
IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...FIJI
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH MODELS...KEEPING
THIS SYSTEM WEAK AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING THEN
DISSIPATING...THIS HAS BEEN THE SCENARIO SINCE IT STARTED FORMING
WEST OF SAVAII. HENCE...MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY...TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND ARRIVAL TIME.
OUR FORECASTS FOR AMERICAN SAMOA ARE BASED MAINLY ON OBSERVATIONS
FROM SATELLITE...WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...DIVERGING SLIGHTLY
FROM INTENSITY OUTPUT FROM GLOBAL MODELS. HENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS AND WE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
LIKELY TO REMAIN AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...THE TRAILING TROUGH
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRITORY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WHEN IT IS PUSHED FURTHER EAST BY A
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MIDWEEK...WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL PRIMARILY BE BENIGN.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE EAST SWELLS FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BORA BORA COUPLED
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F NORTH OF TUTUILA WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE AMERICAN SAMOA COASTAL WATERS. THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HIGH SURF WARNING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND
MAKE UPGRADES AS NECESSARY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F HAVE BEEN
ANALYZED TO HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES FROM
ITS CENTER. THIS HAVE PROMPTED A GALE WARNING FOR SWAINS ISLAND
SURROUNDING WATERS AND A GALE WATCH FOR NORTHERN WATERS OF TUTUILA
AND MANU`A.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF TUTUILA
AND MANU`A

&&

$$
LUTU-MCMOORE






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