Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 190701 CCA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
428 PM CHST SAT APR 19 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR REVEALS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE MARIANAS MARINE ZONES
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING JUST WEST OF THE GUAM MARINE ZONE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULATION CENTER AT ABOUT 11N142E
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CONVECTION NOW COVERS YAP
AND KOROR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. THE MARIANAS MARINE ZONES ARE
LOCATED EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE CIRCULATION
CENTER AT 11N142E TO ABOUT 23N150E. THE MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION AND TROUGH BUT SATELLITE
AND RADAR INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MARIANAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THIS PATTERN INTO SUNDAY AS THE CIRCULATION AND
TROUGH MOVE WESTWARD. ANOTHER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CONCENTRATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH NEAR KOSRAE. A SURFACE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
CONVECTION HAS CROSSED THE DATE LINE AND IS APPROACHING MAJURO.
FORECAST FOR MAJURO FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE. NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS
NOT A PLAYER IN THE FORECAST. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY BRINGS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EAST. FOR KOSRAE...ADDED SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT BASED ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERHEAD. MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION NEAR KOSRAE COULD PERSIST BEYOND TONIGHT...BUT
HELD OFF ON EXTENDING DURATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BASED ON SMALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR KOSRAE.
FOR POHNPEI...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE THROUGH DAY 5.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD FROM 10N130E TO PASS JUST
NORTH OF KOROR AND JUST SOUTH OF YAP...THEN TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD TO
PASS SOUTH OF CHUUK NEAR 5N. 98W HAS BEEN SHOWING AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER CONNECTED
WITH 98W IS THE MONSOON TAIL. TAIL HAS GROWN DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY SHIFT AND HAS ENVELOPED BOTH YAP AND KOROR. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE BEEFED UP POPS AND WINDS FOR BOTH THE YAP AND KOROR FORECASTS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MONSOON
TAIL WELL. WILL ASSUME 98W CONTINUES HEADING WESTWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO BEEF UP THE FORECASTS FOR YAP AND KOROR EVEN MORE IF
MONSOON TAIL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. WIND FORECAST FOR KOROR ASSUMES
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND
TONIGHT. FORECAST FOR CHUUK MAINTAINS THE RELATIVELY DRY TRADE-WIND
PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY BRINGS IN
WEATHER FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY VIA MOSTLY CLOUDY/SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER WORDING. MODELS DEVELOP A CIRCULATION IN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH EAST OF CHUUK BY TUESDAY...BUT DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE CHUUK FORECAST UNTIL THE PICTURE FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 COMES INTO
CLEARER FOCUS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/MCELROY








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