Area Forecast Discussion
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024
FXPQ60 PGUM 220643
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
443 PM CHST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MARIANAS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CENTERED JUST SOUTH
OF CHUUK LAGOON IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHUUK STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY SKIES WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS THE MARIANAS. THE DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WE
COULD SEE AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THAT DISTURBANCE PASSES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BECOMING GENTLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. A
RESIDUAL NORTH SWELL FROM LONG-GONE TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 5N FROM A WEAK CIRCULATION
NEAR CHUUK TO SOUTH OF MAJURO. WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THE GFS AND ECMWF REPLACE THE TROUGH WITH WEAK EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TRADES WITH SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BUT NO WELL-
DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEMS. LITTLE CHANGE THEREFORE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS.
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE SHOULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE TRADES KNOCK OUT THE TROUGH AND BRING
DECREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MODELS KEEP YAP AND PALAU UNDER RELATIVELY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER DRY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS. CHUUK...BEING RIGHT IN THE THICK
OF THE CIRCULATION AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS... SHOULD SEE LOTS
OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BUT
THEN THE CIRCULATION MOVES OFF TO THE WEST AND THE TROUGH
EXTENDING EAST FROM IT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
FEATURE DRY NORTH WINDS AS A RIDGE SETS UP JUST TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

M. AYDLETT/MIDDLEBROOKE



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