Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 262131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
730 AM ChST Sat May 27 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
The deep tropical moisture is confined to the south of the
Marianas. The Mei-yu front is to the north. This means continued
dry season weather on tap through the middle of next week.


First images of visible satellite this morning show only isolated
cumulus. The GFS still attempts to depict mostly cloudy skies
starting tonight, however the depiction is getting to look wan and
frail in the time height. For now just shortened it by making
Memorial Day mostly sunny. The day shift will need to watch though
and either shorten it further or remove it entirely if it is not
starting to happen.

For fire weather, plants are starting to dry out in earnest now.
Antecedent moisture has kept fire season at bay until now, and
once rains start getting serious, they will put it to bed right
away since it never got all that bad.

Mariners will face an unusual problem next week, that of whether
or not they can find enough wind to get their sails going. Any
boats with a backup plan such as a gas or diesel engine will find
this to be merely a curiosity.

Finally, starting Tuesday, there could be a chance of island
convection. Winds might be a bit high near the ground, and could
also be a bit high aloft. However, at least now, while not exactly
friendly, they will no longer be actively hostile. Did not enter
this into the forecast yet, it will have to be watched.


.Eastern Micronesia...
An area of trade wind convergence over Kosrae will bring
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through tonight
before this area moves westward. Other convergence to the west
will bring some showers to Pohnpei during the afternoon and
tonight with drier conditions for Sunday and the rest of the week.

There are more isolated showers near and to the east of Majuro
but they could become more scattered by this afternoon, again
before drier air moves in for the remainder of the period.


.Western Micronesia...
Latest satellite imagery shows most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity to the east of the area with some more isolated showers
to the north. Expect mainly dry conditions today and tonight only
isolated showers. Then, as the trade wind convergence showers move
westward more scattered activity will become possible especially by
midweek for Palau and Chuuk, but should remain south of Yap.


Marianas Waters...None.


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