Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 212200
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 AM CHST FRI AUG 22 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE
MARIANAS WHICH IS PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS 4 TO 9 KNOT EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
LOWEST 12 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WHETHER OR NOT IT
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST ZONES. THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF SAIPAN WATERS
SO LEFT THEM IN TODAY. ONCE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PULLS FAR ENOUGH
AWAY WE CAN TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS OUT. INHERITED GRIDS HAD THE
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER TODAY. WITH THE LOW MOVING A BIT NORTH
THIS ALSO LOOKED GOOD AT THIS TIME.

WAVES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET WITH A FEW 4 FOOT VALUES.
NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE FORESEEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. A WEAK CIRCULATION AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AWAY FROM KWAJALEIN AND KOSRAE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS PUSHING INTO
MAJURO AND KOSRAE AS EXPECTED. EXTENDED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TODAY AT POHNPEI AS THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND MOVES NORTH OF POHNPEI. RIDGING IS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
INCREASING CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION FROM CHUUK TO NEAR KOROR WILL
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CONVECTION THAN EXPECTED. JUST TO THE EAST OF
CHUUK...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO REMAIN IN TACT AS IT
APPROACHES CLOSER TO CHUUK...BUT MAY RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE MORNING. FOR KOROR...A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND AND A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS SEEN TO THE SOUTH. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KOROR WATERS. BASED ON THIS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER OVER KOROR FOR TODAY AND THOUGHT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW IN PLACE SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN PLEASANT CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK TO CHUUK
AND KOROR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/KLEESCHULTE





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.