Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 012043
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
643 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MARIANAS AND IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN. SOUDELOR HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AS CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE CENTER HAS BECOME MORE VIGOROUS AND LARGER IN AREAL EXTENT.
OTHERWISE...MONSOONAL CONVECTION HAS REMAINED DETACHED FROM
SOUDELOR AND HAS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF SOUDELOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY. LATEST
WARNING FROM THE JTWC BRINGS SOUDELOR THROUGH THE MARIANAS JUST TO
THE NORTH OF SAIPAN AS A MINIMAL TYPHOON...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH
THE INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS AND SCENARIO. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A WET MONSOONAL PATTERN AFTER SOUDELOR DEPARTS...SO KEPT
SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST ALTIMETRY AND BUOY READINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW RIP
CURRENT RISK FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE
DETERIORATING RAPIDLY AS SOUDELOR APPROACHES THE MARIANAS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL THE FORECAST
ZONES BY LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
SOUDELOR IS DISPLAYING A BANDING EYE IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY STILL SHOWS WIND RADII EXTENDING
FARTHER OUTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS TC. WIND GRIDS AND
FORECAST COVER THIS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS THE
SAIPAN FORECAST ZONES WILL BE EXPERIENCING THE ROUGHEST WEATHER
WITHIN THE MARIANAS FORECAST DOMAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. 18Z WARNING
FROM JTWC CARRIES SOUDELOR JUST TO THE NORTH OF SAIPAN AS A
MINIMAL TYPHOON JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR AND THE ASSOCIATED MONSOON TROUGH REMAIN
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
IS NOW LIFTING FARTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST POINTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER KOSRAE THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OUT OF THE STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIFT FARTHER
WESTWARD OVER POHNPEI FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED OVER
POHNPEI THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON UNTIL THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER KOSRAE REACH THE ISLAND. A DRIER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER MAJURO AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH WESTWARD AS
SOUDELOR MOVES FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER KOSRAE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE THERE UNTIL MIDWEEK.
POHNPEI AND CHUUK WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH THE LONGEST...THOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. BOTH POINTS ARE LIKELY TO SEE DEEP CONVECTION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED ABOVE WITH THE EASTERN MICRONESIAN
SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU AND SOUTHERN YAP STATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BRIEFLY
SHIFTED OUTSIDE OF KOROR WATERS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THOUGH COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT...DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE NEAR KOROR THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF YAP THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT WILL
DRIFT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE GLOBAL WAVE MODEL INDICATES SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
PALAU AND YAP BY MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LONGER PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST AS TROPICAL
STORM SOUDELOR PASSES TO THE NORTH OF BOTH LOCATIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SHORES AND REEFS FOR YAP AND KOROR BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUZ002.

     TYPHOON WARNING FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PMZ152.

     TYPHOON WARNING FOR PMZ153-154.

&&

$$

MCELROY/KLEESCHULTE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.