Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 020726 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
516 PM CHST MON MAR 2 2015

RETRANSMITTED TO PLACE ON THE WEB

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN THE MARIANAS
WATERS...MAINLY TO THE WEST MOVING AWAY. THE VAD WIND PROFILE
REVEALS EAST WINDS OF 13 TO 21 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 7
THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS OVER THE MARIANAS HAS PRIMARILY ASSUMED MARITIME
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THE USUALLY PREVAILING CLIMATE REGIME
HERE. IT IS NOW A BIT WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AND WE ARE NOW
GETTING MEASURABLE RAIN MORE OFTEN. EVEN SO...MODEL OUTLOOK STILL
SHOWS QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE LOW AND HUMIDITIES STILL FAIRLY LOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SEE LITTLE CHANGE...KEEPING US IN A
TRADE-WIND REGIME FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME SWELL IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN FROM THE NORTH. FOR NOW...WE
ARE KEEPING SURF AND SEAS BELOW HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER...SURF AND SEAS BUILD CLOSE ENOUGH TO THRESHOLD
VALUES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT THE SITUATION BEARS WATCHING.
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS. THAT MIGHT REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY. IF COMBINED SEAS REACH 10 FEET...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE WE ARE GETTING SOME MEASURABLE RAIN NOW...AMOUNTS ARE STILL
WOEFULLY SMALL. THINNER FUELS ARE NOW TINDERBOX DRY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO KICK UP A BIT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE A
RED FLAG WARNING RATHER LIKELY. ONLY JUST BARELY DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE IT TODAY. DROUGHT INDEX IS NOW 648 AND SET TO CLIMB FARTHER.
THE GFS40 AND ECMWF-HIRES MODELS PREDICT NO WETTING RAINS OVER THE
NEXT 10 DAYS...JUST MORE OF THE SAME.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND
SURGE AND WEAK DISTURBANCE ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NORTH
OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. MAJURO WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS FOUND NORTH AND EAST OF THE ATOLL. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TUESDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TRADE-WIND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A
BAND OF CONVECTION OVER MAJURO DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO LEFT
ISOLATED COVERAGE IN FOR NOW. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY
SOUTH AND WEST OF POHNPEI THROUGH THIS WEEK. SHOWERS MAY TRY TO
MAKE A COMEBACK OVER KOSRAE BY FRIDAY BUT FOR NOW MODELS SHOW THE
MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KOSRAE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA IN RESPONSE TO
THE TRADE-WIND SURGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS COULD RISE
BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN MAJURO WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL INCREASE ACROSS THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF CHUUK WATERS BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WENO AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE SOUTH OF CHUUK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...A SIMILAR SETUP TO THAT FOR POHNPEI. MODELS SHOW THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TRADE-WIND SURGE REACHING CHUUK BY
FRIDAY...BRINGING AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ACTIVE
WEATHER NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND AN EMBEDDED WEAK CIRCULATION
WILL PERSIST NEAR KOROR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY IF NOT TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF YAP. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESUME
OVER KOROR LATE TUESDAY AS DRY NORTHEAST FLOW RETURNS. A WET
PATTERN COULD SET UP AGAIN OVER KOROR BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH BECOMES ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS



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