Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 270952
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
252 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOME MORNING FOG IN THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. SHOWERS
DIMINISH WITH A DRYING TREND ON SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS
TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS
MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP
BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW FOG JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
LOW STRATUS MOVING UP THE COAST LOOKS LIKE ITS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF NEWPORT AND WILL CONTINUE UP THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL HOLD THEM OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH LACK OF CLOUD COVER...COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG AGAIN THIS
MORNING BUT VISIBILITIES SEEM TO BE WAVERING SO FAR SO WILL NOT ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND
NOON. MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE COAST BEFORE
00Z AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT MAY BE LIMITED BY AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AS MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN SEEMS COMPLETELY
REASONABLE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
DROPPING STEADILY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT
FOR THE DURATION OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.

A RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HOWEVER MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY...THOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK A NUMBER OF DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S IN THE VALLEY. BOWEN

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ZONAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. THIS MEANS FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED SYSTEMS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE IN
THE DAY AND MON NIGHT. LIKELY SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT AS COOLER AIR ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS REGION.
AFTERWARDS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION BEGINS TO DROP AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER BUT KEEP
SOME MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT IFR
AND LIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 10-12Z EARLY THIS
MORNING AND LIFT BY 18-20Z LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
BRIEFLY STAY VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SLOWLY DETERIORATE
TOWARDS MVFR BY 08Z SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR/LIFR
CIGS AND VSBYS BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST 18-20Z TODAY. BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE TOWARDS MVFR BETWEEN
04-06Z SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. /27

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KT AND SEAS AROUND 7-8 FT UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS OVER THE INNER
WATERS MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE 21 KT...BUT DO NOT FEEL THEY WILL
LAST LONG ENOUGH OR BE WIDESPREAD TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SEAS
WILL LIKELY CLIMB A LITTLE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 10 FT.

WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD BRING A SOLID ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF GALES. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT SEAS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TEENS LATE SUN OR MON AND REMAIN
ABOVE 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM
     THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN FROM
     9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



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