Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 061313 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
610 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY EAST WINDS TODAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND SATURDAY...
CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER A VERY
INNOCUOUS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CIRCULATING
JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS MOVE THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME SOMEWHAT STRONG IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW...OR FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERTICAL MOTION WILL GENERATE
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY
BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN OUR FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TODAY...EXTENDING FROM
CASA GRANDE AND PHOENIX EAST TOWARD THE COLORADO RIVER. DIMINISHING
WIND IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... DRY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ON THE LOWER DESERTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SONORA WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST AND EAST BREEZINESS
DURING THE DAY TODAY AFTER SURFACE HEATING BEGINS THE MIXING
PROCESS...STARTING 16-17Z ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS NEAR AND ABOVE FL030. COULD BE
APPROACHING LLWS CONDITIONS...BUT NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUT IN
TAFS. CLEAR SKIES.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL CLIMB EVEN HIGHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S ON THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS
WILL PUT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE...20-25
PERCENT HIGHER TERRAIN. OFF AND ON BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING NORTH AND NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS...BUT CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ



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