Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 140950
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNRELENTING WARM AIRMASS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS STILL
HOLDING STRONG AND WILL ACTUALLY WARM UP MORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL REACH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TERRITORY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST DAY AS HIGHS BREAK
90 DEGREES IN SOME DESERT LOCATIONS. SOME MINOR RELIEF WILL ARRIVE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS AND LIKELY STILL ABOVE 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IS IT REALLY THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY? WE CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF APRIL AND THERE SEEMS TO BE NO
CLEAR END TO THIS WARMTH IN SIGHT. NO RECORDS FELL YESTERDAY AT
PHOENIX OR YUMA...AND LIKELY WON`T TODAY EITHER...BUT THAT WILL
CHANGE STARTING MONDAY AS HIGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BREAK
RECORDS AT PHOENIX AND COME CLOSE AT YUMA. WE`RE CURRENTLY HITTING A
MINOR DIP IN THE ROAD AS A WEAK AND VERY DRY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWS FOR A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND STARTING MONDAY AND MAX OUT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GET A BOOST DURING THE
PERIOD WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING 90 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND THEN FINALLY
BREAKING 90 ON WEDNESDAY. IF PHOENIX HITS 90 DEGREES IT WOULD BE THE
EARLIEST 90 DEGREE OCCURRENCE ON RECORD AS THE CURRENT EARLIEST DATE
IS FEBRUARY 24.

A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL HELP TO EJECT THE RIDGE OUT THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
LATER IN THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF AS HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO DROP AROUND 5-8 DEGREES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL INDICATES AN OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT LATE THIS
WEEK AS RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD SLUG OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WITH THE
EUROPEAN A BIT DRIER. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE TROPICAL IN
NATURE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...BUT ONLY
EXPECTING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY DUE TO NO DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ALOFT AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW. NEXT WEEKEND MAY SEE A RESURGENCE OF THE REALLY WARM
AIR...BUT IT MAY GET DELAYED A BIT IF MODELS ARE CORRECT IN DEPICTING
A DRY SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND LIKELY
STILL WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND THROUGH
AT LEAST 20Z SAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
UNDER 8 KNOTS.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT SURFACE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS THROUGH 18Z
SUN...HOWEVER BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 23Z SUN...GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO
25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT
SITES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL HOVER IN THE TEENS ACROSS ALL DISTRICTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON BREEZES MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD /YEAR/  | FCST | RECORD /YEAR/
             HIGH                    HIGH

SUN FEB 14    85  |   85   /2014   |  87  |   94   /1957
MON FEB 15    87  |   86   /2014   |  87  |   89   /2014
TUE FEB 16    89  |   84   /2014   |  88  |   88   /1981
WED FEB 17    91  |   88   /2014   |  88  |   88   /2014
THU FEB 18    83  |   86   /2014   |  82  |   90   /1981

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS


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