Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 240719
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT... AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AT THE SURFACE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND ON OUR WEATHER IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC... LEAVING A VERY WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS SEPARATING TWO WEAK RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SW TODAY. ALOFT... THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL KY/TN TO MS/AL AND A STRONG
VORTICITY CENTER NEAR CHICAGO WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD AS THESE FEATURES TRACK ESE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES WILL STILL ALLOW FOR MILKY
INSOLATION... PUSHING TEMPS UP TO MAXES OF 70-73... CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOLLOWING FORECAST THICKNESSES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT... THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEPART...
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT MAINLY NORTH WINDS AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER W TX AND LA BUILDS STRONGLY TO THE NE TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS. LOWS TONIGHT 39-45... ON THE LOW END OF
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SW WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO NC... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH NRN/WRN
NC WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH
SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BUT DRY/STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILDER SAT NIGHT... 45-50... AS A TIGHTER
MSLP GRADIENT KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY STIRRED OVERNIGHT. -GIH

&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN
OUR MILD AIRMASS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT
WILL BARELY GRAZE THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSET BY
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING MID
70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A CORRESPONDING BUMP IN
MORNING MINS INTO THE LOW 50S.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DELAYED AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO
WESTERLY FLOW AND ACTUAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP A BIT...NEAR 70 NORTH
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH CENTRAL TN AND MS/AL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY... SPREADING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 15 000 FT
AGL OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST POTENT
PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER NOW NEAR
CHICAGO THAT WILL DROP SE OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING...
AND ONCE THIS PASSES WELL TO OUR SE... SKIES OVER NC WILL CLEAR. NO
OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED... WITH DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR
LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SAT MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
HOLD AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH TUE... AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION: A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING MAINLY AT FAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



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