Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KRAH 241505
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1005 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM MONDAY...

REST OF TODAY: VERY MILD TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS REMAIN THE STORY
TODAY... WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS. AFTER A WARM START WITH TEMPS HAVING HELD STEADY OR RISEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT... LATEST READINGS ARE FIRMLY IN THE 60S
EVERYWHERE... AND DESPITE THE VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
(GREATEST/THICKEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA)... WE ARE
POISED TO PEAK IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
BUMP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS... DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED PARTIAL CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST) AND CURRENT PACE OF
TEMPS... WHICH WILL BE STUNTED TO A 1-2 CATEGORY CLIMB BY THE CLOUD
COVER. 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA... WITH THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH
RADAR TRENDS... BRINGING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW
OVER SRN/ERN GA INTO ERN SC TOWARD THE NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM DEPICTS MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG BRUSHING OUR ERN CWA... HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS ANY LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD BE CAPPED BELOW THE -10C LEVEL... AND THE
GFS/RAP LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
IN THE SE. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER HERE... BUT
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE MERELY SHOWERS. REGARDING WINDS... THE ONSET OF
MIXING HAS ALREADY LED TO GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IN SEVERAL SPOTS...
AND FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TODAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 20 KTS (23 MPH) IN THE SE TO 25 KTS (29 KTS) IN THE NW WHERE
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE DEEPER. -GIH

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO THE VFR CATEGORY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SECTIONS OF OUR
COASTAL PLAIN...MAINLY JUST EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.