Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KRAH 241026
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
625 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SE WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME FOR MEMORIAL DAY... EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER. MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NC. PW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND 850 MB... AS WELL AS A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EMANATING FROM SRN PLAINS CONVECTION. DRY WEATHER
IS STILL EXPECTED. MODELS HINT AT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SC AND SW NC LATE IN THE DAY... HOWEVER WEAK AND
MEANDERING STEERING FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THESE HOLD OUT OF OUR CWA.
THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EXPECTED SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S MON NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRATUS
ESPECIALLY WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP A BIT FROM THE
SSW AT 5-8 MPH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE LONG TERM
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE HIGH OFF OF THE COAST. IF ANYTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE
FORECAST...IT IS THAT DIURNAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED INTO THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW MAKES IT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER
EAST. IN GENERAL...INSTABILITY INDICATES ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20 KTS OVER THE TRIAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THIS OCCURRING IS
FAIRLY LOW BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA. THAT
BEING SAID...TO PICK A DAY THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
CONVECTION...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE LOW 80S TO
POSSIBLY LOW 90S IN SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURES IS RELATED TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
AS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH LESS CONVECTION WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPS
WHEREAS IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...MORE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR 90S LATER IN THE WEEK AND RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS. STILL ABOVE NORMAL REGARDLESS. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR INT/GSO TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD... 08Z-12Z LATE TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.