Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 301125
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
325 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES.
LAKE WATERS WILL BE CHOPPY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE STORM TRACK LIKELY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND NORTHERN SIDE OF
UPPER LOW WHICH WAS NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TO QUICK TO CLEAR MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND THUS WE HAVE
PLACED SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN FOR THE MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-80. AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, A DRIER
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM
AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN A CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONO-MINERAL
COUNTIES ALTHOUGH THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT.

THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING NORTHEAST RIDGE LEVEL WINDS
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. RIDGE GUSTS WILL
APPROACH 75 MPH WITH AN INCREASING SFC GRADIENT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS TO PYRAMID LAKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, AND ACROSS LAKE TAHOE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CHOPPY LAKE
WATERS MAY REQUIRE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 MPH WITH 1 TO 3 FOOT CHOP.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
PREVAILING INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START NOTICEABLY COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING AS CLEAR SKIES AND A DRIER AIRMASS ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

FOR NEXT MONDAY, WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHEAST
CA-NORTHWEST NV. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN MIXING AND AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 60S FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS, IF CLOUD COVER DOES
NOT BECOME TOO THICK IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS WAVERING ON THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THERE PREVIOUSLY WAS GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE MOISTURE FEED AND
STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER
WESTERN NV, THE 00Z GFS AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE BRINGING
PRECIP INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NEWLY ARRIVED 06Z GFS WENT BACK TOWARD A DRIER
OUTCOME WHICH WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. DUE TO
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WE WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING MUCH CHANGE AT
THIS TIME AND KEEP THE REGION DRY, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE
TRENDED UPWARD. THIS POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN MIN
TEMPS NOT AS COOL FOR MOST NIGHTS.

BY NEXT THURSDAY, IT APPEARS THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AS STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
WIDESPREAD HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AREAS OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD
WITH THICKEST CLOUD COVER MOST LIKELY FROM INTERSTATE 80 NORTHWARD.

FOR MAX TEMPS NEXT TUESDAY-THURSDAY, THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT WILL GET. INVERSIONS
WILL BE WEAK SO UNLESS A THICK OVERCAST PREVAILS ALL DAY, HIGHS EACH
DAY SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH
MID-UPPER 50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE FEED. AT
THIS TIME, THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY SUBTROPICAL, SO EVEN
IF PRECIP DOES REACH THE SIERRA IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE RAIN WITH
SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ON THE HIGH SIDE. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK GENERALLY BETWEEN 12,000 AND
14,000 FEET MSL HAS PREVENTED FOG FORMATION AT KTRK OVERNIGHT. IF
THESE CLOUDS DO NOT DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE THAN FOG IS UNLIKELY TO
DEVELOP, AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED EXPANSION OF THESE
CLOUDS OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND WESTERN NV SOUTH OF LOVELOCK.

NORTHEAST SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING SPEEDS
10-15 KT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NV AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR EASTERN
CA. LIGHTER WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY. STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR
THE SIERRA. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO LIMIT FZFG POTENTIAL AT KTRK
TONIGHT DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







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