Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 310955
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
255 AM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016
High pressure will lead to summer conditions with afternoon highs in
the 80s for the Sierra and 90s across western Nevada this week.
Afternoon highs will approach record levels near the end of the
week. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will return this
weekend and early next week.
High pressure will build strongly into the region today through
Wednesday with temperatures pushing well above normal. A weak
shortwave bumps into the ridge late Wednesday into Thursday and
keeps temperatures from rising any further, at least for a day.
Still, highs will easily reach close to 80 every day in the Sierra
and low-mid 90s across western NV through Thursday. Snowmelt will
accelerate as a result with increasing flows in creeks and streams
running out of the Sierra.
Models continue to produce QPF signatures along the eastern Sierra
south of Hwy 50 each day with the best chance on Wednesday as
shortwave rides top of ridge and zephyr winds/convergence
increase. Mid levels remain quite warm and convection looks
shallow. So we left in the 10% pops as we cannot completely rule
out an isolated shower/storm, but buildups look more likely at
the moment. Winds will get a little breezy along the Sierra Front
northward Wednesday afternoon and evening with gusts 25-30 mph.
.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...
Models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern over the
western U.S. for this weekend, showing a very strong ridge
building over the Intermountain West and then slowly pushing east
as an upper low pushes into CA/NV by Sunday. This is leading to
high forecaster confidence in a significant heat wave that will
affect our region this coming weekend.
Temperatures this weekend will soar into the mid/upper 90s across
the valleys of western NV and NE CA with 80s in the Sierra
valleys. We have continued to raise forecasted temperatures for
the weekend with highs near or potentially breaking records for
early June. This significant early season warm up will also
increase snowmelt and river flows coming out of the Sierra.
Low pressure is trending a little slower into CA/NV, which in turn
is trending warmer temperatures Sunday and Monday. We have also
removed the mention of thunderstorms for Friday at this time, as
we should remain capped due to the slower timing of the low. By
Saturday, cooler temperatures aloft will destabilize the
atmosphere with thunderstorm chances increasing Saturday through
Monday. Temperatures will peak out either Saturday or Sunday, and
then begin a slight cooling trend as the low moves overhead. Hoon
No major impacts through Wednesday with light winds overall. A
weak zephyr wind returns on Wednesday with peak gusts around 20kts
from the west. No thunderstorms are expected, although a few
buildups possible in the late afternoon on Wednesday. Hoon
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