Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 192136
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS EAST WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE SIERRA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEVADA. FOR NEXT WEEK, STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
MAY BRING INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MIDWEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST HAS SHIFTED WINDS TO
THE EAST TODAY, HELPING TO IMPROVE AIR QUALITY OVER THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, AS WINDS FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE EAST. AIR QUALITY SHOULD REMAIN BETTER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DID KEEP A MENTION OF HAZE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LIGHT WINDS WON`T BE ABLE TO FULLY SCOUR OUT
THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WEAK WEST
WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE TAHOE BASIN WHICH COULD PUSH SOME SMOKE
INTO THE AREA.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WE DID SEE SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE PUSHED OVER WESTERN
NEVADA. WE MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST, ALTHOUGH UNDER EAST FLOW ANY STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST AND WESTWARD.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE EVEN MORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA LATE SATURDAY, THEN
TRANSITIONING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE`VE EXTENDED THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SIERRA ZONES ON SUNDAY AS THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING BETTER CHANCES IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH MODELS IN
DECENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AND THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY
BEHIND THE WEEKEND`S EXITING LOW BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH WHICH DIGS DOWN THE THE WEST COAST.
CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH 700 MB WINDS PEAKING AROUND 40-50 MPH, THOUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS WELL. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SMOKE FROM THE
KING FIRE BACK INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, BUT IT IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON FIRE ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REACHING THE NORTHERN
SIERRA THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THEY DO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR HOW THE LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE 00Z EC WAS
LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT SPLIT THE TROUGH, WHILE THE 12Z EC IS MUCH
FASTER TO SHIFT THE LOW THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SECONDARY PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PAST TWO RUNS
OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DROP THE LOW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN,
CLOSING IT OFF OVER UTAH...WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY`S
MODEL RUNS WHICH TOOK IT THOUGH THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF HAZE ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REMNANT SMOKE FROM THE KIND FIRE. THIS MAY
BRING SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO SLANTWISE VISIBILITY BUT WITH NO
ADDITIONAL SMOKE EXPECTED IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT THE ONE CAVEAT IS LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SIERRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY BRING THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE INTO THE TAHOE BASIN,
IMPACTING KTRK AND KTVL.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA
MAINLY SOUTH OF MONO LAKE, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTS ACROSS NEVADA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







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