Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311906
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AFFECTED THE MUNICIPALITIES BETWEEN VEGA BAJA WEST
THROUGH ARECIBO. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET.

FOR TOMORROW...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AHEAD OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR 750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PER LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE LOW CURRENTLY DOES
NOT MEET THE CRITERIA TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. RESIDENTS AND
VISITOR IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR
LATEST INFORMATION ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...WILL KEEP VCTS AT
THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG
WINDS FOR VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  80  82 /  10  10  10  70
STT  81  88  81  81 /  10   0  30  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CULEBRA.

VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

08/71











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