Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 300928
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. BEST
ACTIVITY WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA....MAINLY ON FRIDAY...WHEN LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OR
SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN
MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AND ACROSS TIST/
TISX THIS MORNING. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AFTER
17Z. LOW LVL EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  90  79 /  20  20  40  40
STT  90  79  87  79 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71


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