Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 301445
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1045 AM AST MON MAY 30 2016

.Impacts for today...Showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage and intensity during the next couple of hours across the
San Juan metro area...El Yunque rainforest and across much of the
interior and north/northwest sections of the island. Due to
already saturated soils...heavy showers can lead to mudslides in
areas of steep terrain and create flash flooding near the main
rivers and its tributaries. Stay tuned for any additional
statements or possible advisories or warnings. Isolated to
locally scattered showers forming off streamers are expected
across the USVI. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon between the USVI and eastern PR. Minor changes made to
short term grids.


&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...MVFR to brief periods of IFR possible at
TJSJ/TJMZ/TJBQ thru at least 22z. Latest TJSJ sounding indicated
ESE winds blo FL150 at 8-18 kts...westerlies abv and increasing
w/height.


&&

.MARINE UPDATE...Seas expected to remain below 4 feet and
southeast winds will continue between 10-15 knots with higher
gusts near showers and thunderstorms. Frequent lightning likely
with thunderstorms near the coastal waters of northern and western
PR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 AM AST MON MAY 30 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Upper trough across the western atlantic will
continue to promote unstable atmospheric conditions across the
region next few days. deep low level moisture will continue to
move across the region.

DISCUSSION...Round of showers and thunderstorms were seen across
the local area overnight. periods of moderate to heavy showers
were observed mainly across the eastern half of puerto rico.
Rainfall accumulation were between half to one inch in localized
areas. An upper level trough across Bahamas...Cuba and Hispaniola
will remain over that area for the next few days. This feature
will continue to maintain a relatively unstable weather pattern
across the northeast Caribbean for the next several days. A
surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will maintain a
southeast low level wind flow across the region until at least the
middle of the week. Abundant tropical low level moisture embedded
in this southeast wind flow in combination with daytime heating
and local effects are expected to produce a new round of scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across
interior...western and northern Puerto Monday Afternoon. No
significant changes to the present weather pattern is expected
until the middle of the week and probably through the end of the
work week...as deep low level moisture maintains good chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the region.

AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected thru the rest of the
forecast period with SHRA in and around the Leeward and USVI
terminals as well as TJSJ during the morning. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA
are expected north and northwest of PR...pos affecting TJBQ/TJMZ and
possible TJSJ mainly after 30/16Z. Winds from the E to SE at around
5 to 10 knots...increasing to 10-15 knots after 30/14Z.

MARINE...Relatively tranquil marine conditions will prevail with
seas generally of 3 to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  77  87  78 /  50  30  40  40
STT  85  80  87  81 /  50  40  40  50

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

13/09


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