Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 232105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
305 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow will spread drier air across the eastern
Great Basin today. Strengthening high pressure aloft across the
region beginning Sunday will lead to very warm and generally dry
conditions across Utah next week.


.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY)...Drier westerlies have spread
across the CWA this afternoon in the wake of the trof passing to our
north. Precipitable water imagery shows the moisture has been
shunted east with just some lingering along the southern and eastern
fringes of the CWA. Even with the drying, isolated convection did
manage to develop over the southern mountains and over the Book
Cliffs but cells are small and do not appear to have much rain
with them.

Somewhat cooler air has spread into the north and temps are
running about 5-10 degrees below yesterday while the south sees
little change.

A new trof is forecast to develop along the west coast tomorrow
and the flow over UT backs around to swly but stays light. This
swly flow persists thru Mon and starts to bring a little moisture
back into the south but sufficient moisture for an increase in
convection looks to hold off until Mon.

Temps start to warm back up across the north Sun as the high
centered to our southeast starts to expand nwd. Temps warm more on
Mon with readings reaching 100 again for portions of the Wasatch

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z TUESDAY)...The headline for next week
continues to be another extended streak of above-normal min and max
temperatures, with most days reaching triple digits along portions
of the Wasatch Front. The primary driver will be a strengthening
ridge over the Great Basin and southwestern U.S., with 700mb
temperatures reaching +16C to +20C over much of the region. Dry west
to northwesterly flow around the northern edge of the ridge will
dominate all but the southernmost CWA throughout the week, resulting
in clear skies and dry conditions to go with the warm weather.

Global models begin to diverge later in the week as subtle
differences in the orientation of an upper-level ridge over the
Southwest will impact the forecast. The GFS brings in substantially
higher PWATs and a period of enhanced cloud cover and PoPs Friday
and Saturday, whereas the EC relegates this action farther southwest
with limited effects on the CWA.


.AVIATION...Northwest winds will prevail at the KSLC terminal
through the day then switch to southeasterly between about 03-04z.
Smoke from the Antelope Island fire could occasionally drift past
the airfield, but visibilities are expected to remain greater than 6
statute miles.


.FIRE WEATHER...A drier westerly flow has spread across the fire
district today and only isolated small buildups are expected over
the southern and eastern mountains through this evening. The drier
airmass remains in place on Sunday with just a few afternoon
buildups expected again over the southern mountains. Moisture
increases a little across the south Monday with a little better
chance of afternoon thunderstorms over the southern mountains and a
few buildups possible farther north...while hot temperatures return
to the northern valleys. The moisture remains over the south and
east Tuesday while it stays hot and dry northwest.


.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Wilensky
AVIATION...Van Cleave

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