Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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975
FXUS65 KSLC 140502
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1002 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING. THE STRATUS LAYER THAT HAD SETTLED COMFORTABLY
OVER THE OLD LAKE BONNEVILLE BASIN ERODED QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FIRST WEAK DISTURBANCE GRAZING NORTHERN UTAH EARLIER TODAY.
THIS IN TURN ALLOWED TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA TO WARM TEMPORARILY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CLEARER SKIES ALLOWED FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIVE COOLING AFTER SUNSET WHICH ALLOWED FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN.

THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE FOG THAN STRATUS...WITH WIDESPREAD REPORTS
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL VALLEYS. HOWEVER THE WORST AREAS
THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN IN UTAH COUNTY THIS TIME...BUT RATHER IN THE
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS...NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND CACHE
VALLEY. FOG IS DENSE IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO FAR
NORTHWEST UTAH. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE INVERSIONS
WHICH MAY RESULT IN DECREASED FOG COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW UNLESS
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS INCREASING COVERAGE OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SAID WEAK UPSTREAM WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO GRAZE FAR NORTHERN UTAH
TOMORROW. AHEAD OF IT...THE UPPER JET WILL NOSE INTO NORTHERN UTAH
TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL BURST OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHERN UTAH. TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. AS THE
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODIFIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...RAIN SHOULD START
MIXING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MANY NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THE
MAIN PART OF THE TROUGH GRAZES THE AREA.

UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO INCREASE FOG OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS...TWEAK SKY COVER AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VIS OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KSLC
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH 10Z. BEYOND THIS...FOG/STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS AS A THICKER DECK
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE VIS REMAINS AT 1/2 MILE OR LESS...AND/OR CIGS REMAIN
BELOW 500 FEET THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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