Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 102253
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
253 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather continues into next week outside of a few
sprinkles or showers across the northern mountains Friday. The
next chance of precipitation for NorCal may arrive by middle to
end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong ridging remains in place over the West Coast, allowing for
dry weather and little more than scattered high clouds. Ridge has
weakened just a bit, allowing for temperatures a few degrees
cooler than yesterday. Thursday will feature much of the day with
temperatures within a degree or two of today`s readings. A weak
wave attempts to push into far northern portions of the state
Friday into Saturday, with only a small chance for sprinkles or a
few showers across northern mountains as ridging wins out.
Otherwise dry and mild weather will continue into the weekend.
Patchy fog formation is possible again the next few mornings
across the San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley.

CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)
After a little flattening of the strong ridge along the W Coast
early in the weekend...5H heights once again rebuild along the
coast on Sun and into early next week. The axis of the ridge takes
on more of a positive-tilt and so do the NAEFS height anomalies
and mean temp/return intervals...oriented from SW to NE across
Norcal. While the strongest anomalies trend a little S and SE of
our CWA...Norcal will still see a once in very 5-10 yr return
period. On Mon...the 1 in every 2 to 5 yr return period at 850 mbs
is generally located from the SFO Bay area into the Sac Vly. So
once again...for the SAC CWA...the Srn portion of the Vly will
flirt with near record maxes...quite "presidential" indeed. (Lower
case letter p intended.) Breezy Nly/katabatic winds down the
valley during the day could boost the maxes to record levels. The
anomalous pattern shifts over Socal on Tue...so the warmest day
looks to be Mon.

Models are still forecasting a positive to neutrally-tilted trof
impacting NorCal near the end of the EFP (Wed-Thu). It does not look
as if this trof will tap into anomalously high TPW values...e.g. the
NAEFS Mean PW anomalies are near normal for our CWA and the
operational GFS 6-hr averaged precip rate is about normal at
.10-.20"/hr. However...snow levels should lower to pass levels
for the Wed nite/Thu periods.    JHM

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper ridge axis has shifted Ewd into the Great Basin and SW flow
aloft will continue to spread BKN high cloudiness (Ci/Cs) into
Norcal. Light winds and strong temperature inversions in the early
mornings will lead to local MVFR vsbys in BR in the southern
Sacramento Valley TAF sites, local IFR in FG in the northern San
Joaquin Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$


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