Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 292122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
222 PM PDT Mon May 29 2017

Temperatures a little above normal for today followed by a
cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated afternoon showers or
thunderstorms possible over the mountains through mid week.


.Discussion...(Today through Thursday)

Water vapor imagery and model analysis indicated a ridge of high
pressure centered over the Great Basin shifting eastward as a
negatively tilted shortwave trough of low pressure off the
northern California coast brought high level clouds inland.
Visible imagery showed a cumulus field developing during the early
afternoon hours in the Sierra foothills and mountains.

Latest short term hires guidance depicts some isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing this afternoon ahead of the upper level
disturbance moving onshore, with initiation sometime between 1
and 5 pm. Models vary on coverage and duration of the storms, but
the main activity for isolated development should remain for the
Sierra mountains along and south of I-80 and diminish by the late
evening. Breezes through the delta will begin to increase through
the evening.

A series of shortwave disturbances rotating around the main upper
level low in the northeast Pacific will bring chances for
continued isolated showers and thunderstorms for the Sierra
mountains and bring cooler weather to the forecast area. High
temperatures Tuesday will drop by 5 degrees to return to near
normal for this time of year. Breezes through the delta will
continue through the day Tuesday.

Showers will continue Wednesday as the upper trough lingers over
northern California under northwest flow. High temperatures will
be on the cooler side of normal. Upper level flow shifts to more
stable flow on Thursday with dry weather expected and a return to
near to slightly above normal temperatures.



Warm, dry weather will persist through the extended period. High
pressure continues building Friday with most valley locations
reaching high temperatures in the 90s by Saturday. Temperatures
will remain above normal through at least early next week. Current
model runs show a shortwave trough clipping our area Sunday but
not enough moisture to produce any precipitation chances.
Temperatures do not look to be affected by this small system, and
high pressure will continue to build after it passes.




VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours for TAF sites.
Winds generally 10 kts or less, increasing to up to 15 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt after 00z in the southern Sacramento valley and
northern San Joaquin valley. Gusts to around 30 knots in vicinity
of the Delta. Isolated TSRA possible in the higher mountains,





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