Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 062241
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
241 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2015

.Synopsis...
Warm daytime temperatures will continue into early next week
under ridge of high pressure over the western U.S. Daytime highs
over the weekend will be around 10 to 20 degrees above normal with
nighttime low temperatures around normal. High temperatures
returning to closer to normal by the middle of next week with
possible return of precipitation, mainly over the mountains, starting
Wednesday.

&&

.Discussion...
Warm and sunny day today with temperatures generally in the 70s in
the Valley and mid 50s to 60s in the mountains this afternoon.
These temperatures are several degrees warmer than yesterday with
increased subsidence and warming airmass. The most warming is in
the Northern Sacramento Valley with northerly downslope winds bringing some
additional adiabatic warming for about 12 degrees warmer than
yesterday afternoon. The mountains have also seen a jump in temperatures
around 10 degrees compared to yesterday. Temperatures are expected to be
similar to a little warmer over the weekend and Monday with
persistent high pressure. Redding Airport has reached 81 degrees
so far today which breaks the old record of 80 degrees from 2005 for the
airport. Near record to record temperatures for this weekend with
records mainly in the low 80s in the Valley which were mostly set
in 2004, the Northern Sacramento Valley has the best chance at
breaking records this weekend too. The record for March 7- Redding
Airport 83 in 2004, Red Bluff 82 in 2004, Downtown Sacramento and
Sac Exec 81 in 1953 and Stockton 82 in 1953, for March 8 Redding
Airport 84 in 2004 and Red Bluff 83 in 2004, Downtown Sacramento
80 in 2004, Sac Exec 78 2004 and Stockton 82 in 1953. for March 9-
Redding Airport 85 in 2004, Red Bluff 87 in 1934, Downtown
Sacramento 81 in 2004, sacramento Exec and Stockton 77 in 2004.
Low temperatures will be around normal with temperatures generally
in the upper 30s to 40s except mid 20s to 30s in colder mountain
valleys and over highest elevations. Winds will generally be light
north to east with weak pressure gradients over the area.


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

For the extended forecast, Tuesday will be mostly dry as ridging
lingers above NorCal before exiting eastward. A slight chance of
rain could move into far NorCal Tuesday night including parts of
Shasta, Tehama & Plumas Counties as a low pressure system moves
into the West Coast. Models are still varied in the details of
this event with the GFS just clipping our northern CWA and then
quickly exiting by Thursday morning. The GEM and ECMWF show a
slower moving system that tracks farther southward into our region
that persists into Thursday. Have kept a slight chance to chance
of precipitation on Wednesday into Thursday, then dissipating by
Thursday evening. By Friday, ridging returns to the West Coast
with a return of warmer and dry weather.  JBB

&&

.Aviation...

Strong high pressure over Norcal resulting in VFR SKC conditions
with light winds through Sat.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







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