Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 280129
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A deep layer ridge will remain in place across the region.
Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with lows in the mid
to upper 50s.
[Through 00Z Sunday]...Unlimited cigs/unrestricted Vis will
continue until just prior to daybreak when we will see a period
of MVFR Vis and scattered low clouds develop. VFR conditions
return to all terminals by 15z with light easterly winds.
.Prev Discussion [253 PM EST]...
.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The upper ridge along the eastern seaboard will flatten over the
next several days. The strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic
will weaken as well. This will yield a decrease in the easterly
winds across the forecast area. However, the southern portion of
the upper ridge will remain intact, keeping the weather dry and
temperatures above normal through Sunday night. Expect highs in
the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Flat upper ridge will remain in place over the Gulf Coast through
the early part of next week. This will keep the bulk of the
precipitation north of the forecast area with a continuation of
above normal temperatures. Could see an isolated shower or two
across the far northern zones on Tuesday, but the chances are
By Wednesday and Thursday, the ridge will break down allowing the
cold front to push towards the Gulf Coast. Upper short wave will
then dig towards the Gulf Coast, inducing weak cyclogenesis over
the eastern Gulf or just off the east coast of Florida. This
should help to enhance rain chances for the area behind the front.
There is still some disagreement in the guidance as to the timing
and amount of rainfall expected. However, expect rain chances to
be on the increase for Wednesday and Thursday, before diminishing
on Friday. Currently, thunderstorms do not appear very likely
given the post-frontal nature of the precip.
While Exercise Caution conditions will linger this evening over
the offshore waters, high pressure centered over the Mid-
Atlantic will gradually weaken through the weekend and allow for
winds and seas to subside.
With no significant rain anticipated through early next week,
there are no flood concerns at this time.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 57 78 55 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 60 75 58 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 55 75 53 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 53 75 52 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 55 77 54 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 58 79 56 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 60 74 59 75 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CST this evening FOR South