Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 250800
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
400 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Deep northeasterly flow will continue to bring a much drier airmass
into the region with forecast PW values dropping to around 1.0" by
this afternoon. An isolated late afternoon shower or thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out, especially across the southeast Big Bend where
some moisture will be advected in from the Atlantic. Highs will be
in the lower to mid 90s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

For the most part, deep layer ridging will prevail through
Saturday. The only exception will be an upper-level wave rotating
around the periphery of the ridge over the Tri-State region on
Friday. However, dry mid-level air will prevent any deep moist
convection with this disturbance. PoPs are forecast to be in the
10-20% range through the period, with highs a couple of degrees
above average in the middle to upper 90s.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Moisture levels will return to near normal by Sunday, with more
seasonable rain chances and high temperatures. Beyond Sunday, the
forecast becomes quite complicated and challenging.

A tropical disturbance currently near Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic is forecast to move northwest towards the
Bahamas through Friday. Over this period of time there is a 50%
chance that it will become at least a tropical depression.
Additionally, over the course of the next 5 days there is an 80%
chance of tropical development. Since models first began forming
a tropical system there has been a wide window of solutions, with
little agreement run to run and between models regarding timing,
track, and intensity. A great deal of uncertainty still exists,
but with this latest suite of guidance there is at least some
narrowing in track solutions. There tends to be a little more
favoritism to a solution that would bring the disturbance
across/along the Peninsula late this weekend, and into the
eastern/northeast Gulf early next week. From there, the window of
solutions opens back up again, taking the system either west
through the Gulf or north along the west coast of Florida. At this
time, it`s a good idea to keep a close eye on the forecasts over
the next several days, review your family emergency plan, and be
sure your emergency supply kit is in good order. Beyond that, it`s
just too early at this point, especially given the model
uncertainty, to paint a clearer picture.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will be from the northeast
and gusty a times this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Nighttime easterly winds surges to cautionary levels should be
expected over the next several nights with a gradual weakening of
winds speeds through each afternoon. Early next week the forecast
becomes quite uncertain as it will be dictated by the evolution of
a tropical disturbance currently in the Atlantic. Mariners should
pay very close attention to the forecast through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Although a drier airmass continues to filter into the region,
the minimum relative humidity will stay above critical levels.
Afternoon dispersion values will likely reach or exceed 75 at
several inland locations this afternoon and again on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Dry conditions with below average rain chances will prevail
through Saturday with no threat for flooding through the weekend.
Next week, the potential for heavy rainfall exists if a developing
tropical disturbance in the Gulf moves this way. Stay tuned to the
forecast over the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   95  74  94  73  95 /  10   0  10  10  20
Panama City   91  78  90  78  90 /  10   0  10   0  20
Dothan        94  71  94  72  95 /   0   0  10   0  10
Albany        95  71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      94  73  95  71  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
Cross City    92  75  93  74  93 /  20   0  20  10  30
Apalachicola  89  79  89  79  89 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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