Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 250700
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
300 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A deep upper level trough will gradually move eastward across our
area today with westerly/northwesterly flow in its wake bringing
progressively drier air into our region. Although thunderstorm
chances have ended as the cold front has moved east of our area, a
few showers are currently ongoing just southeast of Panama City.
Coastal regions of the FL Big Bend could see some isolated showers
this morning with enough residual moisture persisting across this
area. Otherwise, dry conditions are anticipated throughout the day.
Westerly winds will increase to around 10-15 mph during the
afternoon with a few gusts around 20 mph possible. Cool air
advection in the wake of the cold front will lead to very pleasant
temperatures for late May in our area, with morning lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s and highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower
80s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Deep layer ridging will build in across the area, bringing a quiet
start to the weekend. Overnight temperatures will be cooler than
average tonight and about average tomorrow night, with lows in the
50s tonight and in the 60s tomorrow night. Highs will warm back up
to the mid to upper 80s Friday, upper 80s to low 90s Saturday, with
low 80s along the immediate coast both days.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Upper level troughing will move into the Great Lakes early next
week, developing a frontal system which will stall and then dissipate
to our north by mid-week. This system will bring a return for 20-40%
chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area starting Monday,
with the highest chances over our northwestern zones. Highs will be
mostly in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows will be around 70.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period across our area under
decreasing high clouds. Light winds mainly from the west will
increase during the late morning and afternoon Thursday with gusts
of 15-20 kts possible.

&&

.MARINE...

A small craft advisory will remain in effect through the late
morning. Small craft operators are encouraged to continue to
exercise caution through the remainder of the today as westerly
winds gradually fall to below 15 knots by this evening. Winds and
seas should remain light through the rest of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High dispersion values are possible this afternoon along with
decreasing RH values as drier air moves into our area. However, RH
should still remain above critical thresholds with minimum values
around 30-40 percent today. Therefore, no red flag conditions are
anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Most of the area has picked up about 2-4" of rain over the last
week. As much of the area has been parched, particularly south-
central GA and the FL Big Bend, this rainfall has been welcome
relief. No river flooding is occuring or forecast to occur. The
highest rise is along the Kinchafoonee Creek near Dawson, which is
currently in action stage and will rise to around 6.5 ft this
morning before falling.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   83  57  88  66  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   78  67  81  74  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        79  60  88  64  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        79  58  87  65  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      81  57  87  64  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    82  60  85  68  88 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  80  66  83  73  85 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Moore



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