Area Forecast Discussion
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094
FXUS62 KTAE 310531
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
131 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.AVIATION...

[Through 06z Monday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail,
although scattered convection is also expected during the day
today. The earliest start to scattered convection is likely to be
at ECP during the late morning or around the noon hour, followed
by the remainder of the area during the afternoon hours as
convection develops inland from the Gulf.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [833 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Deep layer high pressure is over the northern Gulf coast today and
will remain in place through the evening. This ridging has allowed
temperatures to warm up quite a bit already today, with 1PM
temperatures already in the low to mid 90s everywhere except the FL
Panhandle. Precipitable water values on this morning`s TAE sounding
rose to about 1.7", but will continue to climb to around 2" by this
evening. We also have ample instability in place with SPC`s
mesoanalysis showing 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE across the forecast area.
With all of this moisture and instability in place, we`ve already
seen an active start with seabreeze thunderstorms across north FL
this morning and beginning to develop in southeast AL and southwest
GA this afternoon. Some of these storms may produce gusty winds.
Storms are expected to dissipate around sunset. Overnight lows will
be in the mid 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A deep ridge will persist over our area, resulting in a
typical summertime pattern where the sea breeze and outflow
boundaries will be the main forcing for daytime showers and
thunderstorms. Models are in fairly good agreement that very
moist air will persist, with around 2" PWAT values expected over
much of our area. Therefore, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours with peak instability and sea breeze forcing. Seasonably
hot and humid conditions will continue, with highs generally in
the low-mid 90s. Lows will be in the mid 70s inland, with upper
70s to near 80 expected along the coast.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Continued deep layer ridging will persist over our area, keeping
hot and very humid conditions in place through this period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, and
coverage of showers/storms should be decent with PWAT values of at
least 2" projected to persist through the week. With moderate
instability and barely any shear present, no widespread severe
weather is anticipated; however, a few isolated strong wind gusts
can`t be ruled out from the pulse storms. Seasonable temperatures
will persist, with highs in the low-mid 90s and lows in the mid-
upper 70s each day.


.MARINE...

Winds around 10 to 15 knots or less will persist through the next
several days, with isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible each day.


.FIRE WEATHER...

With RH values above critical thresholds, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

No widespread flooding issues are expected through this period.
With deep layer moisture and slow movement of scattered
thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening, localized areas
of minor flooding can`t be ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   94  76  94  76  95 /  50  20  50  20  50
Panama City   88  80  89  79  89 /  50  20  30  10  30
Dothan        93  75  93  74  93 /  50  30  50  30  50
Albany        94  75  95  74  95 /  50  30  50  40  40
Valdosta      94  74  93  74  95 /  50  30  50  30  50
Cross City    94  75  93  74  94 /  50  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  90  79  90  78  90 /  30  20  30  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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