Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 221832
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
232 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A cold front moving across the area this afternoon will move
across the northern gulf tonight before stalling out. There
may be a few evening showers along the gulf coast with the
front. A large area of high pressure across the Great lakes
will move southeast and provide a low level easterly flow
with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows tonight will range
from the mid 50s north to around 60 near the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday night]...

In the upper levels a ridge over the Great Plains will move
eastward over the Southeast. At the surface high pressure will
be over the Eastern U.S. on Thursday and begin to move offshore
Friday. Easterly low level winds will become southeast Friday
and bring slightly warmer temps to the area. Skies will be
partly cloudy with no measurable rain expected. Highs Thursday
will range from near 70 north to lower 70s south warming into
the mid 70s most areas Friday. Lows Thursday night will be
in the lower 50s north to upper 50s south and mid 50s north to
around 60 south Friday night.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A cut-off low over the lower plains will slowly move northeast
before opening up over the eastern Great Lakes early next
week. A mid/upper trough will move through the region Saturday
night. The associated cold front will be weak and will not move
into the Southeast. The trough will be the primary weather maker
with the best chance of rain on Saturday evening into the overnight
hours. Thunderstorms are possible and could be fairly strong with
shear near 40knots aloft. However instability will be deceasing as the
trough approaches in the evening hours. POPs will be in the 30 to 40
percent range in the westernmost parts of the region. Highs will be in
the lower 80s. Lows will be in the upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...

Prevailing VFR conditions expected this eve with wind
becoming east. MVFR cigs expected to spread into the
area from the east by early Thursday morning around 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Light westerly winds will become strong and easterly by
Thursday morning. 20 kt winds are expected Thursday night
through Friday morning. On Saturday evening winds will become
light and southerly. Seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected on
Thursday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum relative humidity values will remain above critical
thresholds. Other than elevated dispersions towards the
coast and eastern Big Bend...no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers are well below action levels. Rain totals are
forecast to be less than half an inch over the next seven days.
No flooding concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   59  73  55  76  57 /  10  10   0  10  10
Panama City   61  72  59  73  61 /  10  10   0  10  10
Dothan        57  70  54  76  57 /  10  10   0  10  10
Albany        56  69  52  75  56 /  20  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      57  72  53  76  56 /  20  10  10  10  10
Cross City    60  74  55  76  55 /  10  10   0  10  10
Apalachicola  62  72  60  72  61 /   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...PP/McDermott
LONG TERM...PP/McDermott
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP/McDermott
FIRE WEATHER...PP/Scholl
HYDROLOGY...PP/McDermott



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