Area Forecast Discussion
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639
FXUS62 KTAE 221818
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
218 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...
Thunderstorms this afternoon are most likely at ECP/TLH/VLD but
unlikely to make it much further inland. As a result, expect ocnl
IFR conditions in and near thunderstorms through about 23z.
Thereafter, should be VFR conditions until 9z/10z when MVFR vsbys
will be possible at TLH/ABY/VLD. Any morning restrictions should
end prior to 14z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1147 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Visible satellite imagery and surface data at 15z show the sea
breeze front beginning to organize around the Florida Big Bend and
along the Florida Panhandle. There are notable differences today
compared to yesterday. Low and mid level water vapor imagery show
an area of drier air moving across Southern Georgia/Alabama and
this is likely to have a suppressive effect on afternoon
thunderstorm development. Additionally, the KTAE 12z sounding has
considerably less favorable lapse rates throughout the
troposphere, indicating that storms today should likely not reach
severe limits.

That all being said, model guidance does seem to suggest with the
modest south-southwest flow in place that storm coverage should be
maximized in the Florida Big Bend and Florida Panhandle. The drier
airmass across Southern Georgia/Alabama should limit development
there. This is currently well depicted in the latest PoP forecast,
so see no need to make any adjustments this morning.

The temperatures also seem to be on track for the lower 90s across
the area. Heat indices will continue to be in the 100-104 degree
range, but still well shy of the heat advisory threshold of 108
degrees.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Flat ridging aloft tonight will give way to a deepening East Coast
trough Sunday-Monday as a shortwave trough moves across the Great
Lakes area and trailing energy moves through the Mid South. This
will induce Lee troughing down the Appalachians and keep surface
winds locally from a westerly component. Moisture remains
plentiful with PWATs of 1.8-2.1 inches this period. The net result
is more of the same summer pattern. Coastal and northern Gulf
streamer showers/storms overnight to seabreeze activity during the
day. Highs will be in the lower 90s with lows in the mid 70s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Even though the Great Lakes trough continues moving eastward
Tuesday and central US ridging strengthens mid week, leftover
energy will deepen the east coast trough further with indications
of a cut off low over the Carolinas Wednesday/Thursday and
troughing stretching into the northern Gulf. There are no
indications of moisture being scoured out and PWATs remaining high
so rain chances will continue to run around normal through the
long term period. Highs will be in the 90s and lows in the 70s.


.MARINE...

Light to moderate winds and seas will prevail through the next few
days. Showers and thunderstorms will be most likely between
midnight and noon.


.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

A typical summertime scattering of storms is not expected to
produce any river flooding. Isolated minor flooding could be
possible in urban locations under slow moving storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  89  74  91  74 /  20  60  20  60  20
Panama City   78  87  78  88  79 /  20  60  40  60  30
Dothan        74  90  74  90  74 /  20  60  20  60  30
Albany        74  91  75  90  74 /  20  50  20  60  30
Valdosta      73  91  73  91  73 /  20  60  20  60  20
Cross City    74  88  74  88  74 /  30  60  40  60  30
Apalachicola  77  86  78  88  78 /  30  60  40  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Pullin



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