Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 251409
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1009 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
No major changes to the going forecast today. Weak ridging will
be in place today with highs in the lower/middle 80s inland and
upper 70s near/at the coast.
.PREV DISCUSSION [621 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The local area will be dominated by weak ridging today as an upper
level low continues to move east of the area and a new trough digs
into the southern plains. Mostly sunny skies are expected today with
highs ranging from the upper 70s along the coast to the low to mid
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
An upper level short wave in the southern Plains will swing
northeastward into the Ohio valley by Thursday afternoon. At the
surface, a frontal system will develop and push across the lower
and mid-Mississippi valley Wednesday night and move into the
southeast on Thursday. Dynamics for this system will be pulling
north as the system approaches our area and models showing the
linear MCS out ahead of it will likely fall apart by Thursday
night. However, with SBCAPE up around 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear
around 30 kts, and 0-1 km shear of 15-20 kts in our southeast AL
counties Thursday afternoon, we cannot rule out the possibility of
severe weather. Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the
main threats, although an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The frontal system will dissipate Thursday night as it lifts
northward, so the area will remain under zonal flow aloft and
southerly Gulf flow at the lower levels through the weekend.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s in the
afternoons and chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
around 20% with isolated thunderstorms. Our next frontal system
will come Monday as a strong +PV anomaly and associated cut off
upper level low move from mid-upper Mississippi valley into the
Great Lakes. This will bump up chances for showers and
thunderstorms Monday, as well as bring cooler temperatures
[Through 12z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected through the
period with westerly winds generally near or below 10 knots.
Winds from the south will increase to 15 to 20 knots Wednesday
night ahead of an approaching frontal system and seas will
increase to 3 to 5 feet. This system will dissipate and lift north
Thursday night, so winds will continue to be mostly from the south
through the weekend.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
through the remainder of the week, precluding any red flag
Thursday`s system is not expected to produce more than a half inch
to inch of rain across the area. There are no flooding concerns at
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 83 57 83 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 20
Panama City 78 66 77 70 79 / 0 0 0 10 30
Dothan 83 59 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 10 60
Albany 83 59 86 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 50
Valdosta 82 56 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 20
Cross City 81 57 81 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 79 62 79 67 81 / 0 0 0 0 10