Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 271856
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
256 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
.SHORT TERM (This afternoon-Sunday)...
Scattered to numerous showers and storms moving over the Central
and South FL Peninsula this afternoon expected to collide with
coastal convergence to enhance convective activity along the
immediate coast into the early evening hours. Storms shift
offshore tonight with clearing skies in fast easterly flow while
temps remain around seasonal norms.
On Sunday the tropical wave, Invest 99L, is forecast to remain
disorganized and approach the southeast Florida peninsula and
Florida Keys and this would place West Central and SW FL on the
drier side of the system to keep POPs mainly in the scattered
category. The best rainfall coverage appears over southern areas
closer to the system late Sunday. Daytime temps continue to run
within a few degrees of normal.
At this time, the system only has a 20-30% chance of developing
this weekend. We will continue to monitor this system as it
moves through the region.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night-Saturday)...
The area of low pressure will be moving over south FL/Cuba region
and into the Gulf through Monday. The area of low pressure will then
linger over the east/central Gulf through mid week. Models then
differ for the second half of the week, with a general solution
being the trough elongating NE to SW across the state and lifting
out to the NE through Friday with weak ridging building across south
FL for the end of the period. Deep tropical moisture will be in
place over the area through the period with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms possible each day. Temperatures will be in
the mid 80s to around 90 in the afternoons and lows in the mid 70s
to near 80 at the coast.
Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA continue to move westward over the
area impacting TAFS sites with brief restrictions to VSBYS/CIGS
through 00Z-02Z then VFR conditions returning all sites.
Pressure gradient remains fairly tight between high pressure in
the Deep South and the tropical wave moving from the N Carib
tonight into the SE Gulf Sunday/Monday. The persistent E-NE winds
will continue with easterly surges near SCEC criteria overnight
and early morning hours. As the tropical wave slowly moves
northward into the east central then NE Gulf winds and seas will
remain elevated and small craft advisories may be needed with
numerous showers and thunderstorms likely to locally enhance winds
and seas through the week.
Summertime warm and humid conditions continue this weekend then
increasing rain chance next week for no significant fire wx
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 78 94 78 91 / 30 50 20 60
FMY 77 91 76 90 / 20 50 30 70
GIF 76 92 76 91 / 20 40 20 60
SRQ 77 93 77 92 / 40 50 20 70
BKV 75 93 75 92 / 20 40 20 60
SPG 79 92 79 91 / 40 50 20 60
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard