Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 290136
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
836 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 900MB COMBINED WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL AGAIN
SET THE STAGE FOR LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME OF THE FOG BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE. SREF/NARRE AS WELL AS
THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND IN-HOUSE FOG TOOLS AGAIN SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY.

HAVE ALREADY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT
THESE DETERIORATING TRENDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WILL UPDATE THE
ZONES SHORTLY TO REFRESH WORDING. WITH ALL OF THE MODEL DATA
POINTING TOWARD ANOTHER POTENTIALLY FOGGY NIGHT...ANOTHER DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FOG OVER THE LAND AREAS...HIGH DEW POINT AIR
OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SOME SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...AND WILL ADD PATCHY/AREA
COVERAGE INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEAR AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE COOLEST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESIDE
AS WELL AS OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR WATERS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LAND FOG FORMATION. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AFTER 06Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AND BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AFTER 08Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
IMPROVE BACK INTO THE MVFR AFTER 13Z...THEN BECOMING VFR ALL SITES
AFTER 19Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE 7 TO 10 KNOT RANGE AFTER 15Z ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVERRIDES THE RELATIVELY
COOLER WATERS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE AND
PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. OTHER THAN ADDING
FOG TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED
IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






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