


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
022 FXUS62 KTBW 151742 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 142 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Invest 93 continues to move onto the east coast of FL and will continue its journey west across FL today and tonight. NHC has given the system a 40% chance of development once it moves into the Gulf over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, main concern the next couple of days will be rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has tagged most of the forecast area with a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of excessive rainfall. Meaning some areas may get multiple rounds of rain, increasing the risk of flash flooding. A flood watch is in place till 11pm this evening, because of the expected rainfall. Though conditions are currently quiet, rain and storms are still expected to fill in this afternoon into the evening. Some storms could have strong, gusty winds and frequent lightning. As always, be sure to have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. Unsettled conditions continue for the next couple of days as the system makes its way into the Gulf. Towards the weekend we shift back to a more typical summertime pattern as southeasterly flow settles back in. Temperatures heat back up by the end of the week with the later afternoon shower and storm coverage expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR conditions prevail outside of convection. Invest 93 will continue to move west over FL bringing periods of showers and storms later this afternoon into the evening. Quiet, VFR conditions return overnight. Showers and storms return tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate for the next couple of days as Invest 93 moves over FL into the Gulf. Winds will begin to increase this evening and stay elevated. Winds finally start to subside Friday into the weekend as the low pressure system moves further away from the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Plenty of moisture over the area will keep fire weather hazards low. Only concern will be high dispersions Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 91 78 92 / 60 80 40 80 FMY 76 91 76 93 / 50 70 40 80 GIF 74 92 76 93 / 40 80 20 80 SRQ 76 91 75 92 / 60 70 50 80 BKV 71 92 72 92 / 60 80 40 80 SPG 77 88 78 90 / 60 70 50 80 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Hardee-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley