Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 030038
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
838 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
EARLY EVENING KTBW RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS LINED UP ALONG THE SPINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
(HRRR) AND OTHER HIGH RES/SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE
STORMS DRIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LINGERING CELLS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.

AFTER THE CONVECTION WINDS DOWN...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 70 OVER THE INTERIOR...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST. TUESDAY WILL IN MANY WAYS SETUP SIMILAR TO
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A STRONGER WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSH...KEEPING THE STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR. AS THESE STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
09-10Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THESE LOW CEILINGS LIFT
OUT...THE ONLY THREAT OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TUESDAY EVENING AND CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS FILLING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...LIKELY CAUSING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
FMY  72  89  73  86 /  10  20  20  70
GIF  71  88  70  81 /  40  40  30  70
SRQ  73  83  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
BKV  68  85  68  81 /  10  20  50  70
SPG  75  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/FLEMING
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE


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