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000
FXUS62 KTBW 122026
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
326 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...GIVING A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL
FRONT THAT CROSSED THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLIER IN THE
WEEK. THE DRIER PUSH IS ALREADY APPARENT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER
ALMOST THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE
30S. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PUSH OF COOL AIR...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S OVER THE
NATURE COAST...AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST OVER PARTS OF LEVY COUNTY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING EVEN MORE TO THE EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...GENERALLY
FROM AROUND 70 TO THE NORTH AND AROUND 80 OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE INVERTED
TROUGH. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT BEING DRAGGED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...RISING BACK TO 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS COMING BACK
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. LATE SATURDAY...SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE NATURE COAST
AND NORTHERN MARINE ZONES FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...THOUGH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL
EXPECTED NOT TO ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MON WITH THE FLOW ALOFT VEERING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A LOW ON THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF...TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MON AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF
AND INTO SOUTH FL.

FOR TUE-WED...THE BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN STATES AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTH FL AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF COAST TO THE SE U.S. WHERE IT WEAKENS...ALLOWING MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT TO CREEP BACK NORTH INTO FL.

THE BEST ODDS OF RAINFALL WILL BE SAT NIGHT WITH LIKELY-CHANCE-
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
NORTH. THEN DURING SUN THE GULF COAST LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE FRONT
APPROACHES WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS. THESE THEN TAPER DOWN TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER WED. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUN WILL DRIP BELOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK THEN WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AROUND THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
PGD...FMY AND RSW WILL ERODE AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NORTHEAST
FLOW PERSISTING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS KEEPING A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH WINDS AND SEAS CURRENTLY HOVERING AROUND ADVISORY
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE MARINE ZONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL RELAX
A BIT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH RH VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BACK UP INTO THE 40S.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  52  75  62  80 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  57  79  64  83 /   0  10  10  10
GIF  49  75  60  82 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  53  78  62  81 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  41  74  57  82 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  57  74  64  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLEMING
LONG TERM...RUDE
AVIATION...CLOSE