Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 111932
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
232 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST
BUT WEAKEN SOME THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE PENINSULA. DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT OR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST OFF
THE GULF WITH NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER
INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH SOME POCKETS OF UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE
COAST.

PLEASANT DRY WEATHER WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. AFTER A COOL START
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S AREA-WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO AN INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE WEEKEND KICKS OFF WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR. ALOFT...A POTENT 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER
NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO/NORTHWESTERN QUEBEC. THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND HELPS PUSH THE SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES
AS THE DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT PROVIDE MANY OF
THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR CONVECTION.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY...WITH MONDAY SERVING AS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
WITH THIS STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF RESOLVING A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST SPURRED BY SUPPORT ALOFT FROM A 500 MB TROUGH. THE 00Z
ECMWF HAS A FASTER MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TIMING
FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER WITH A
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST EVOLUTION FOR
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IN CASE IT POSES A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS LOWER CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY.

BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE
REGION. A DRY REINFORCING FRONT WILL CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL SUPPORT A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FROM TARPON SPRINGS NORTH TO
THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND 10 TO 15 KNOT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE CAUTIONARY OR LOW END SMALL CRAFT
RANGE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET WITH SOME HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS. WIND AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHTER WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
WATERS ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DURING
MONDAY NIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TOWARD
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WITH WINDS
LIKELY REMAINING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AS THEY SHIFT RAPIDLY TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LINGERING DRY AIR WILL AGAIN SUPPORT 3 TO 4 HOUR DURATIONS OF
HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 35 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY
LOW ERC VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUE ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT HIGH DISPERSION INDICES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER
DISPERSIONS RETURNING ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  50  69  55  68 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  46  74  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  45  74  53  70 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  48  66  54  68 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  44  71  49  66 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  53  68  56  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA


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