Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 311925
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
325 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE STATE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. THE
KEEPS THE W/SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WIND SPEED
BECOMING GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS A BIT
OVER SOUTH FL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. RIVERS ARE STARTING TO COME DOWN ACROSS
THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST QPFS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SATURATED CONDITIONS BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE ANY FLOOD
WATCHES PLANNED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
80S...WITH LOW 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE
COAST.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE
EAST AND A RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. RIPPLES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...RIDING OVER
THE TOP OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA/SOUTH
GEORGIA. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL EXIST ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY BETWEEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE TROUGH
TO THE NORTH. THIS COMBINATION IS GOING TO RESULT IN A RATHER
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AS IT STANDS NOW...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WILL SET UP MAINLY NORTH OF PASCO COUNTY. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY OVER THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. OF COURSE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN MORE THAN
THEIR FAIR SHARE OF RAIN...LIKELY RESULTING IN MORE FLOODING. WITH
SUCH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAINS REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CURRENTLY FLOODING RIVERS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FLAT EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE SETTING UP
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR.

ANOTHER TROUGH COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NATURE COAST
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY W/SW WINDS BECOMING
GENERALLY 5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER
01/14Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ANY STORM THAT MOVES OVER A
TERMINAL WILL CAUSE TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE FL STRAITS KEEPING THE W/SW FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WATERS. FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AS THESE FEATURES SHIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...WITH THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS NEEDING A
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL ALSO
MONITOR THE REST OF THE WATERS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION...BUT AT
THIS TIME THEY LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE AROUND 15 KNOT RANGE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR THE
STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  87  78  88 /  40  50  40  50
FMY  77  92  77  91 /  20  20  20  50
GIF  75  88  75  89 /  20  60  20  70
SRQ  77  88  77  89 /  40  40  30  40
BKV  75  87  74  88 /  40  60  40  60
SPG  78  87  78  88 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON



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