Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 021310
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
910 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA NOW MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF GRADUALLY WASHING OUT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT RE-BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. 88D
RETURNS NOW SHOW SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS LEVY COUNTY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH OTHER SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WEST OF SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES...OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WERE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH PW`S IN THE 1.9 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE DURING LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND
MILD MID LEVEL TEMPS (-5 TO -6C) IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
AGAIN BE DELAYED SOME...WITH OVERALL STORM COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE
LIMITED AS WELL WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED RANGE POPS
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE MERGER...AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I 4 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDES. THE HRRR AS WELL AS OTHER HI-RES MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SO PLAN TO CUT BACK POPS SLIGHTLY IN A MID
MORNING UPDATE...OTHERWISE NO OTHER GRID OR ZONE CHANGES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TODAY DUE TO
MILD DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION...BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT
ALL SITES JUST THE SAME AFTER 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA
THAT MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES AFTER 01Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GULF
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS IN OVER THE
WATERS. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN UNDER THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTS SEAS
WITH AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO
CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THIS SUMMER...AND PARTICULARLY DURING
THE LAST 5 TO 6 WEEKS OR SO...HAVE BROUGHT NUMEROUS RIVERS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD. THERE ARE CURRENTLY SIX
RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN FLOOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND TWO
OTHERS ARE IN ACTION STAGE.

RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE


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