Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 241115
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
415 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...

It remains mild and mostly dry today through Sunday morning, as a
brisk westerly flow aloft develops over the region. Sunday
afternoon, an upper level disturbance will move across Southwest
MT, producing rain or snow showers and bringing in cooler
temperatures for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...

A pair of upper-level disturbances, one moving across northern
Montana and the second skirting far southern Montana, will exit
the region today. This will allow strong winds and most shower
activity to diminish across north-central and southwest Montana,
leaving mostly dry and mild conditions across the region today
through Saturday early afternoon as low-amplitude anticyclonic
flow continues in the upper levels over the region. A Pacific warm
front skirts mainly western Montana late Saturday afternoon into
the evening and will bring a brief chance of some light rain
showers or mountain snow to primarily higher elevations. A better
push of moisture Sunday as a large-scale upper level system enters
the PacNW will mean more clouds and a greater chance of showers,
though there is still a large degree of uncertainty currently.
Winds are expected to increase in the typical windy areas along
and just downwind of the interface between the mountains and
plains Sunday. CC

Sunday Night through Friday...
Temperatures look to be seasonably mild with occasionally breezy
conditions continuing as a progressive pattern takes shape next
week, with the potential for unsettled weather continuing into at
least the first part of Monday before upper ridging moves
overhead. The next weak system looks to move through quickly
Tuesday night into Wednesday before broad upper ridging builds
just to our south late Wednesday through Thursday. Models begin to
diverge toward the end of next week, with some models depicting
increasing moisture ahead of a low pressure system just off the
PacNW coast. CC


&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1115Z.
VFR conditions will predominate through the TAF period, with the
exception of this morning over the far southwest mountains, where
the remnants of a cold front will exit to the south. Breezy
conditions will continue across much of the region, with gusty winds
diminishing near or shortly after sunset this evening in most
locations. CC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  34  49  40 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  47  31  46  32 /  10   0   0  10
HLN  49  26  45  31 /  10   0   0  10
BZN  48  22  44  30 /  20   0   0  10
WEY  41  22  37  27 /  40  10  10  20
DLN  47  24  46  33 /  20   0   0  10
HVR  51  29  49  30 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  46  30  49  35 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls


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