Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 241656

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1056 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1020 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

Current forecast is on track. Have only made some minor adjustments
to Today`s grids to better reflect current trends in observations
and short-term model guidance.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 507 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/


The discussion for the 12Z TAF forecast can be found below.

VFR conditions will prevail with sct to ovc high clouds. S to SW
winds will be gusty by 16Z, with gusts abv 20kts possible across
NE OK and NW AR. Winds subside by sunset, and then turn to the N
behind a weak front tonight across NE OK and NW AR.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

The primary focus for much of the upcoming forecast period will
continue to center around fire weather concerns. Southerly flow will
increase today out ahead of a weak cold front moving through later
this evening and overnight. Low-level moisture will be in short
supply, and with dry fuels in place and gusty winds developing by
later this concerns remain a primary concern this
afternoon. Temperatures will not help fire weather conditions since
much of the forecast area could see afternoon highs topping out in
the low to mid 70s...about 15 degrees above normal for this time of
year. Greatest fire concerns look to be generally along and north of
Interstate 44 where winds could gust to 25 mph and relative humidity
values near 30 percent. Portions of northwest Arkansas will also see
heightened fire concerns this afternoon.

The cold front will near the eastern Kansas/Oklahoma border late
this evening with cooler air filtering in behind the front. Not a
big push of cold air with this front, so we will see temperatures
quickly rebound Saturday and Sunday. Overall, a rather pleasant
November weekend to travel back home after all the Thanksgiving

Decent ridging and tightening pressure gradient over the Plains will
allow for rather strong winds of 30 to 35 mph to develop Monday
afternoon. Low-level moisture will be slow to return with eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas seeing relative humidity dropping into
the 30 percent range before gradually moistening through the
evening. This will create another potentially dangerous fire weather

The next chance for precipitation will be tied to a trough and
attendant cold front Tuesday and Wednesday. Mid- to long-range
models still not agreeing on the timing and overall strength and
position of the trough...and this could impact how much, if any,
rain we might see. Given the lack of moisture this month and the
developing drought conditions, any rain this last week would be




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