Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201019
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will continue at all sites through the forecast
period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 407 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Heat and humidity will be the main concerns across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas through the end of the work week
and into the start of the weekend as the dome of high pressure
remains over the Southern Plains. High temperatures in the mid
90s to around 102 degrees will be possible each afternoon with
south to southwesterly winds 5 to 15 mph.

Heat index values in the 100 to 110 degree range will also be
possible each afternoon across all of Eastern Oklahoma and also
Northwest Arkansas. In response to yesterdays dewpoints slow to
mix out have added the rest of the CWA to the heat advisory that
runs through Friday. Not all locations within far Northwest
Arkansas might reach criteria...though with indices looking to be
close to 105 degrees have gone ahead and added them to the
advisory. Overall this advisory will likely need to extend into
Saturday...though will hold off for now and let the day shift re-
evaluate with latest data.

During the weekend...latest model solutions indicate the ridge of
high pressure amplifying over the Western U.S. which will allow
for a shortwave to drop southeast out of Southern Canada into the
Great Lakes Region Sunday. A trailing frontal boundary associated
to the shortwave continues to be progged to sag southward toward
the CWA Sunday/Monday before retreating northeast Tuesday as the
wave moves into the Northeast U.S. There is still some uncertainty
on just how far south this boundary gets to/into the CWA with
models differing on the details. Thus...will continue with chance
pops Sunday/Monday and slight chance Tuesday before the boundary
exits the region. A break in the excessive heat looks possible
during this period with temps looking to get back close to the
seasonal average. Behind the departing boundary...indications are
that the ridge of high pressure shifts back over the Southern
Plains for the second half of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  80 100  80 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
MLC   97  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  100  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   94  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   96  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
F10   97  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   96  75  97  76 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...07


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