Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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846
FXUS65 KTWC 150426
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
925 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Sunny and dry conditions will prevail across southeast
Arizona Friday and Saturday. A cold but quick moving weather
system will bring colder temperatures, valley rain and mountain
snow showers Saturday night and Sunday. Warmer temperatures and
dry weather will return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A clear sky prevailed across southeast Arizona in the
wake of upper trough passing through area. Easterly pressure
gradient increase overnight producing gusty east winds at times.
Mild night most area that will see these east winds. Those that
don`t it will be quite chilly. So expect large temperature spreads
across areas/zones.

The tail end of passing upper level trof over Sonora Mexico will
spin up into an upper level low. Moisture associated with the
feature will remain over Sonora/Chihuahua Mexico through Saturday
and be advected north late Saturday night into Sunday in advance of
a fast moving wetter and colder weather system impacting the area on
late Saturday night into Sunday with valley rain and mountain snow.
Taking a quick look at the 00z runs of the NAM/GFS and they are
pretty similar to 12z/18z versions. Current forecast looks on track
but I can see later shifts increasing PoPs, QPF and mountain snow
amounts.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 16/00Z.
Clear. Sfc wind bcmg ely 12-16 kts with gusts to 25 kts at times,
and continue into Friday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Easterly 20 foot winds will develop overnight and
persist into Friday with speeds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts to 30
mph at times. Otherwise, mild and dry weather will prevail Friday
and Saturday. A stronger weather system will bring cooler
temperatures, valley rain and mountain snow to the area Sunday. Drier
air and warmer temperatures will then return next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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