Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 150425
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 PM MST SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AGAIN MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WE HAVE BEGUN TO COOL OFF THIS EVENING WITH 04Z SFC
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S CWA-WIDE.
THE BREEZY ELY/SELY WINDS WE SAW EARLIER TODAY HAVE DIED DOWN AS
WELL. AFTER SEEING A FEW WEAK ECHOES OUT IN CENTRAL AND WRN PIMA
COUNTY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...THE RADAR FOR SERN AZ IS NOW QUIET.
OF NOTE IS AN AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NRN SONORA WHICH HAS DEVELOPED ONLY WITHIN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WARMING
CLOUD TOPS ALREADY...SO DO NOT EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO KEEP IT
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SERN AZ. KNOCKED NEAR-TERM POPS DOWN EARLIER
THIS EVE AND EXPECT THIS TO HOLD OVERNIGHT. OUTERMOST CLOUD BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE COULD MAKE IT TO THE KDUG TERMINAL AS EARLY AS
TMRW MORNING. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT...SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY UPDATES. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/06Z.
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS.  THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE WINDS
DECREASING A BIT AS A RESULT.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE TODAY WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  A GREATER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY...BUT THEN STILL REMAINING SCATTERED.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE EASTERLY BREEZE AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.  IT
WILL EASE UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING NEAR THE
WHITES AND NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER WITH A BIT MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THEN ALL FOCUS GOES TO THE INCREASE MOISTURE AS MAJOR HURRICANE
ODILE EDGES NORTHWARD.  DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FORCED
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.  THEN THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.  TIMING FOR THE MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION REMAINS  QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE A DOWNWARD TREND FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES
THRU THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON HURRICANE ODILE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE RESURGENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS ODILE HUGGING THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND WEAKENING NEAR THE BAJA SPUR BY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER IDEAL TRACK TO FORCE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED THAT THIS INITIAL
MOISTURE SURGE INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST
COAST SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE MOISTURE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEK
WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING BECOMING A
CONCERN BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF ODILE WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THE TRACK OF NORBERT WHICH AIDED IN THE FLOODING THIS PAST
WEEK...THE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
LACKING. THAT SAID...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COMPARE THE OUTCOME OF
THIS PAST WEEK TO WHAT MAY EVOLVE WITH THE PROJECTED WEATHER
SCENARIO THIS WEEK. THIS LACK OF DIRECT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO APPEARED TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MODEL QPF VALUES
WHICH CONTINUED TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST RAIN
EVENT. NONETHELESS...A WET PERIOD WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THAT SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL LINGER PAST
THURSDAY...BUT IMPROVING WEATHER CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION/FIRE WX...CERNIGLIA




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