Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 232102
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONTINUED
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST CONTINUES
AMPLIFY/BUILD NORTHEAST TODAY. 20Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA INDICATE VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES...WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING STILL ON TAP YET.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM WITH THE CONTINUED
AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN BE EAST OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OF HEATING ON FRIDAY (COMPARED TO TODAY`S HIGHS) AND THEN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY UNCHANGED SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR TUCSON...FORECAST HIGHS ARE 94 DEGREES F BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHICH IS JUST BELOW RECORD LEVELS. STILL EXPECT A
STATION OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO TIE OR BREAK PREVIOUS
RECORDS DURING THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOP OUT AT 7-12 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.

A TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MONDAY. MAIN MOISTURE/DYNAMIC FIELDS TO
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE SOME MOISTURE POOLING RIGHT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HAVE
PUT IN SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS SUNDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) POPS
MONDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER VALUES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE WHITE`S ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
THEN INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC/SOUTHWEST US LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL AND DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORMAL AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

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