Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 140925
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...14/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND
RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST UTAH...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS PROGGED TO EXIT
ARIZONA AND HEAD INTO MEXICO BY AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...
BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES STILL EXPECTED TODAY...WITH ONLY THE SLIGHT
INTERFERENCE OF A VEIL OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS TO IMPEDE THE SUN.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH TODAY...A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST AND MOVE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
APPROACHING 20 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME PLACES.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FAR SOUTH ALL WE WILL SEE IS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS BUT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC OR ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
BUT PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN SLIM AS THIS OCCURS. WILL SEE
A DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND MAINTAIN SIMILAR
READINGS EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HIGHS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL EVEN WITH THE REDUCTION IN DAYTIME HIGHS DURING THAT PERIOD.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM 12 TO 20 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST
DAY SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 20 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. LOW TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM 6 TO
10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...THEN
AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/12Z.
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER 10 KTS THRU 14/17Z THEN
BECMG NW 8-15 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS MAINLY GILA RIVER
VALLEY. WIND EASING BELOW 10 KTS AGAIN AFTER 15/03Z.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...REACHING RECORD HIGH LEVELS AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  RH
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY WEAK NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER.  GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON


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