Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 110958
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. OTHERWISE...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. MOST STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
BUT SOME WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING...AS OF THIS WRITING...FROM TUCSON N TO E. THESE SHOWERS
WERE MOVING TO THE NNW. I EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DECREASE THROUGH 7
AM THUS WILL HOLD ON TO LOW END POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
LOW/INVERTED TROF APPROACHING THE TEXAS BIG BEND. ADDITIONALLY THERE
WAS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING NEAR LUBBOCK TEXAS.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE PULLED S AND THEN W THRU SRN NM OUT AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROF/INVERTED TROF. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE OVER SE ARIZONA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COCHISE
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF
THE E-NE WHICH WILL HELP STEER STORMS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS AND FLASH FLOODING. THOUGHT
ABOUT HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ESPECIALLY FOR SANTA CRUZ AND
COCHISE COUNTY. HOWEVER THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS IDEA
AS NOT ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH WHERE THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR. WILL LET DAYSHIFT PONDER THIS IDEA. SINCE
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AROUND THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF SCATTERED STORMS UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING THIS EVENING FROM TUCSON
EAST.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE WEEKEND LOOKS
ACTIVE AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW/INVERTED TROF MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. HEAVY RAINERS AND THUS FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE ONE OF THE CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SEVERE
STORMS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCTD -SHRA/ISOLD TS FROM KTUS E THIS MORNING UNTIL 16Z.
EXPECT SCTD TSRA/SHRA FROM KTUS E AND S LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF STORMS W OF KTUS. MVFR VSBY
NEAR +TSRA...AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 35-40 KTS.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL BE AROUND 8-15K FT AGL. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED
TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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