Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 250031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jan 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2268 (S10E48,
Ekc/beta-gamma) produced a couple of weak C-class flares; the largest a
C2/1f at 24/0740 UTC. The region remained fairly stable with some weak
intermediate spot development. The remaining spotted regions were either
stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were
observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at mostly low levels with a chance
for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flaring over the next three days
(25-27 Jan). The most likely source for any significant flare activity
is Region 2268 and the return of old Region 2257 (N07, L=322) on or
about 26 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 136 pfu at 24/1725 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
forecast to be at normal to moderate levels through days one and two
(25-26 Jan). Moderate to high levels are expected by day three (27 Jan)
due to effects from an enhanced wind stream associated with the southern
polar coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels (below S1-Minor) for the next three days
(25-27 Jan).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, reflected nominal
conditions. Wind speeds began the period averaging near 400 km/s through
about 24/0300 UTC before gradually decreasing to an average of about 360
km/s through periods end. The IMF total field ranged between 1-5 nT
while the Bz component varied between +3 nT to -4 nT. Phi angle remained
in a predominately negative (towards) orientation.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to be a mostly nominal levels for
the first half or so of day one (25 Jan). Late on the 25th, an increase
in wind speed, total field strength and periods of enhanced
negative Bz are expected as high speed winds from the large southern
polar coronal hole are expected at the ACE satellite. Disturbed
conditions are expected through day two (26 Jan). By day three (27 Jan),
a gradual relaxation in solar wind parameters are expected.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated high latitude
active period observed midday on 24 Jan.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the the first half or so
of day one (25 Jan). Late on the 25th, and through day two (26 Jan),
effects from the large southern polar coronal hole are expected to
interact with the geomagnetic field. Quiet to active conditions are
expected both days, with minor storm (NOAA Scale G1) levels likely late
on 25 Jan.


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