Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 271230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Region 2249 (S07W54, Dac/beta-gamma) produced an M2/2b (R1, minor) flare
at 27/0216 UTC bringing solar activity to moderate levels.  This region
was also responsible for several C-class events, including a long
duration C2 flare at 26/2144 UTC.  Region 2249 continued to grow and
maintained its magnetic complexity during the past 24 hours.  Growth was
also observed in Region 2248 (S17E27, Dai/beta-gamma), although it
produced no flare activity.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares throughout the period (27-29 Dec).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (27-29 Dec) with a chance of
reaching high levels after day one (27 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background
levels (Below S1-Minor) on all three days (27-29 Dec) of the forecast
period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft was enhanced.  Wind
speed fluctuated between about 370 and 550 km/s.  Phi was generally
negative.  Bt hovered near 10 nT for the first half of the period,
declining to near 6 nT during the second half.  Bz dipped to about -9 nT
before becoming mostly neutral after 27/0300 UTC.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to be disturbed with the onset of
a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) on 27 Dec.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to
prolonged periods of southward Bz.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods possible throughout the period
(27-29 Dec) due to the onset of a high speed solar wind stream.


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