Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
000
FXXX12 KWNP 290030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Sep 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2597 (S14W66, Dao/beta) was little
changed and only produced minor B-class enhancements. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class
flares on day one (29 Sep); decreasing to a slight chance on days two
and three (30 Sep-01 Oct) as Region 2597 rotates to and beyond the limb.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels and
reached a maximum flux of 23,935 pfu at 28/1610 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels all three days (29 Sep-01 Oct), with a chance for very high
levels by day three (01 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels all three days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained indicative of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Solar wind speed was elevated and ranged from about 600-725 km/s, with
an increase to near 800 km/s later in the period. Total IMF strength was
between 4 to 8 nT and the Bz component was variable, with a several
prolonged periods of southward direction. The phi angle was
predominantly positive.

.Forecast...
The solar wind speed is anticipated to remain elevated as Earth is
expected to continue to be under the influence of the positive polarity
CH HSS all three days (29 Sep-01 Oct). Solar wind speed is likely to be
at peak levels on day one and begin a slow decrease starting on day two.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels late in the
period and was otherwise primarily at G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH
HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to respond with active to G1 (Minor)
storming, with an isolated period of G2 (Moderate) storming on day one
(29 Sep) under continuing CH HSS influences. There is a slight chance
for an isolated period of G3 (Strong) storming on day one due to the
high solar wind speed and occasional periods of favorable IMF
orientation. The geomagnetic field is likely to continue responding at
active to G1 storming levels, with an isolated period of G2 levels, on
day two (30 Sep).  Weakening CH HSS effects are expected to decrease the
overall planetary geomagnetic response to primarily active levels, with
a few periods of G1 (Minor) storming likely on day three (01 Oct).



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.