Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 041230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Sep 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2409 (N03E20,
Cro/beta) underwent slight decay but produced the largest flare of the
period, a B4/Sf flare at 04/0518 UTC. Region 2410 (S19E20, Bxo/beta)
remained stable and inactive. A new spotted group has rotated onto the
visible disk near N14E75; however, further analysis and spot group
reports are needed before assigning a SWPC region number.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) first visible in coronagraph imagery near
03/1200 UTC was observed leaving the southwestern portion of the disk.
Analysis of AIA/STEREO imagery indicated that this event was associated
with far-sided activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available LASCO coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flares.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on day one (04 Sep), followed by normal to high
levels on day two (05 Sep). Normal to moderate levels are expected to
return on day three (06 Sep) with coronal holes 96 and 97 moving into a
geoeffective position. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to remain at background levels all three days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters measured at the ACE spacecraft reflected
positive polarity CH HSS effects from CH95. Solar wind velocities
generally ranged from 400-450 km/s with brief, isolated peaks near 550
km/s. Total magnetic field strength was primarily between 8-11 nT, but
reached as high as 13 nT. The Bz component oscillated and reached a
maximum southward deflection of -10 nT. The phi angle remained positive.

.Forecast...
The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through day
three (04-06 Sep) due to multiple CH HSS influences.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at unsettled to active levels
with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, over the next three
days (04-06 Sep) due to the various CH HSS influences.


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