Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 261231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Mar 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Newly emerged Region 2644 (N13E36,
Dro/beta) produced a few B-class x-ray enhancements. Region 2643
(N08E10, Axx/alpha) continued its slow decaying trend. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels throughout the
forecast period (26-28 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 8,820 pfu observed at 25/1710 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to high
levels until late on day one (26 Mar) when an increase in geomagnetic
field activity is expected to cause a decrease to normal to moderate
levels for days two and three (27-28 Mar).  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the
forecast period (26-28 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a
relatively nominal environment. Total magnetic field strength remained
below 5 nT while Bz mostly varied between +/- 2 nT. Solar wind speeds
steadily decreased from 500 km/s to near 400 km/s by the periods end.
Phi angle rotated towards the negative sector between roughly
25/1430-2330 UTC and was in the positive sector for the remainder of the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced beginning late on
day one through day three (26-28 Mar) due to the onset of a CIR followed
by the influence of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Recurrence
and STEREO-A data suggest solar wind speeds in the 650-700 km/s range
are likely during the passage of this feature.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reflect the onset of a CIR with
active conditions late on day one (26 Mar). G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels are likely on day two and three (27-28 Mar), with isolated G2
(Moderate) conditions likely on day three (28 Mar), in response to the
influence of a negative polarity CH HSS that is expected to be be
persistently strong.


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