Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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867
FXXX12 KWNP 230030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Aug 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2671 (N10W31, Fsi/beta-gamma)
produced numerous B flares and two C flares, the largest of which was a
C2/sf at 22/1750 UTC. The other numbered region on the disk, Region 2672
(N08E47, Dao/beta), increased in area and produced a B7 flare at 22/1438
UTC. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available
satellite imagery during the reporting period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance of
M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts), for the next
three days (23-25 Aug).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 15,600 pfu observed at 22/0305 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected remain at high levels
the next three days (23-25 Aug), while the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters became disturbed early in the day with a SSBC.
Shortly thereafter total field increased to 9 nT and the Bz component
deflected southward to -9 nT. By midday the field became more relaxed
before showing signs of agitation again later in the day. Solar wind
speeds started off at 525 km/s, jumped to 670 km/s by 0700 UTC, then
leveled off around 490 km/s by the end of the day. The phi angle
switched from a positive to a negative orientation early in the day with
a SSBC. Phi remained mostly negative through about 1400 UTC, then began
to oscillate between positive and negative sectors, coincident with late
day field agitation.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced into day one
(23 Aug) while solar wind speeds recover to background levels. Day two
(24 Aug) is likely to see periodic enhancements in solar wind parameters
before settling to near background levels by day three (25 Aug).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G2-Moderate storm levels early in the day.
The field was mostly at quiet to unsettled levels through the remainder
of the day.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on
day one (23 Aug), with a chance for G1-Minor storming early in the day,
as solar wind parameters recover to normal, background levels. Day two
(24 Aug) is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels as the
solar wind environment transitions back to quiet levels by day three (25
Aug).



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