Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 180031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jan 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2625 (N01E06, Hsx/alpha)
was stable while Region 2626 (N08E16, Cao/beta) developed a small
trailer spot during the period. Neither region produced flare activity.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight
chance for C-class activity, all three days (18-20 Jan).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with
a maximum flux of 2,711 pfu observed at 17/1630 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal
to moderate levels on days one and two (18-19 Jan) due to electron
redistribution as a result of CIR effects. A chance for high levels
exists on day three (20 Jan) following high solar wind speeds associated
with the positive polarity CH. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, continued
to reflect a nominal solar environment. Total field strength remained
steady between 3-5 nT, while the Bz component ranged from +/-3 nT.
Solar wind speeds ranged between 320 km/s and 295 km/s, and phi angle
was predominantly positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on day one (18
Jan) due to the anticipated arrival of a CIR followed by a
polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds near
650-700 km/s (speeds based on STEREO PLASTIC data and recurrence) are
likely due to CH HSS effects. Conditions are expected to remain enhanced
through days two and three (19-20 Jan).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with
isolated periods of minor storming (G1-Minor) likely later on day one
(18 Jan) due to continued CIR effects and the onset of a
polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected to continue into day two (19 Jan), with G1-Minor
storms likely early, as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to active
conditions are expected on day two (three (20 Jan) as CH HSS influence
continues.


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