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000
FNUS28 KWNS 212047
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VALID 231200Z - 291200Z

REASONABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
THROUGH D5/SAT...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF
VARIOUS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES /AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENHANCEMENTS OF
MID-LEVEL WINDS/ DOES ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FROM D6/SUN THROUGH D8/TUE...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH D5/SAT IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
NEAR-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW...AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS. UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO WRN CANADA BY D6/SUN WHILE THE ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

...D3/THU - D7/MON: SOUTHWEST...CNTRL GREAT BASIN...
ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AMIDST A DRY AIRMASS WILL FAVOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY DRY WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING RESULTING IN CRITICAL RH VALUES EACH DAY. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE MORE VARIABLE EACH DAY WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS FOR SUBSEQUENT DAYS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH ON D3/THU THROUGH D5/SAT TO DELINEATE
CRITICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN DECREASES AFTER D5/SAT WITH UNCERTAINTY TOO HIGH FOR ANY
CRITICAL RISK AREAS. AS SUCH...ONLY MARGINAL PROBS WERE DELINEATED
FOR D6/SUN AND D7/MON.

..MOSIER.. 05/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...