Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 272128
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 011200Z - 071200Z

THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE WRN CONUS ON
D3/SUN AND D4/MON BEFORE BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EWD ON D5/TUE. AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
ON MONDAY AND THEN EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SURGING DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW.

THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS/LOW RH ACROSS NM/FAR W TX INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON
D5/TUE...AS DRY WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE THREAT SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICALLY LOW RH.
ALSO...ANTECEDENT COLD/MOIST CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD
RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS. GIVEN THESE MITIGATING
FACTORS...NO CRITICAL PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN DELINEATED.

FOR D6/WED AND BEYOND...MODEL SPREAD INCREASES REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN LOW AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
MUCH OF THE CONUS.

..DEAN.. 02/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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