Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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208
FNUS28 KWNS 092133
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 111200Z - 171200Z

GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN CONUS
TROUGH PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD -- 12Z D3/THU. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW ON D4/FRI WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL LIKELY BUILD AGAIN IN ITS WAKE.
PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ON
D5/SAT...REACHING THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY D6/SUN.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A VERY LOW CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXISTS BUT
ANY THREAT WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. WITH
THE STRONG WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE N AND NE OF THE REGION...ANY
STRONG WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH
CURRENTLY RESULTS IN LOW PREDICTABILITY DUE TO MODEL-TO-MODEL AND
RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY.

..MOSIER.. 02/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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