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FNUS28 KWNS 222057

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Valid 241200Z - 021200Z

Models continue to depict persistent mid-level troughing across the
West throughout the D3-D8 forecast period.  In response to the
mid/upper troughing, a persistent lee surface trough will oscillate
across portions of western Texas/Oklahoma through at least D6/Tue.
Fire weather concerns will substantially increase in response to
this pattern primarily across the southern High Plains, although the
degree of fire weather risk will depend on how fuels recover/cure in
response to extensive precipitation in some portions of the region.

...D3/Sat through D7/Wed - Portions of the southern High Plains and
Periods of elevated to critical atmospheric fire weather conditions
will develop during peak heating hours each day as
westerly/southwesterly downslope develops behind the slowly evolving
surface trough.  Given the overall favorable synoptic regime for an
extended period of heightened fire weather conditions, 40%
probability areas have been introduced and/or maintained for at
least some portion of this region through D7/Wed.

As stated earlier, fuel states will be a primary complicating factor
for greater confidence in critical fire weather conditions occurring
during the extended period.  Extensive amounts of precipitation and
cloudiness have occurred across the region over the past several
days (particularly in southern New Mexico, portions of the Texas
South Plains, and northeastward into Oklahoma).  The dry pattern
will likely result in extensive curing of fine fuels at the very
least, and this curing will likely be most pronounced in portions of
the Texas Panhandle and northeastern New Mexico where the least
rainfall has occurred.

Once concerns about fuel states are resolved, higher probabilities
and/or critical delineations may be needed - especially on D5/Mon as
windy and dry conditions develop across relatively dry regions of
northeastern New Mexico northeastward into western Kansas where
drought is most likely to persist.  Although 40% areas exist through
D7/Wed, confidence on specific location of the surface trough
becomes low.  These areal delineations (D6/Tue and D7/Wed) may need
adjusting in future forecast cycles.

..Cook.. 02/22/2018

...Please see for graphic product...

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