Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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522
FNUS22 KWNS 311746
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO EITHER THE ELEVATED AREA ACROSS PARTS
OF N-CNTRL ORE INTO S-CNTRL WA OR THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA
ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN NM AND SERN AZ FOR D2/WED. FORECAST REASONING
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS VALID FOR BOTH AREAS.

..GLEASON.. 05/31/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0338 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EWD ACROSS NWRN MX
INTO FAR W TX LATE WED NIGHT...AS A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CNTRL CA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE A
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ENTERS THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND GENERALLY SEWD FROM PARENT LOW OVER WRN ONT...ACROSS THE
OZARK PLATEAU INTO SW TX WED AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO MUCH OF
TX.

...COLUMBIA BASIN OF ORE/WA...S-CNTRL WA...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SFC TROUGH OVER ERN WA/ORE IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRENGTHENING OF WLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN. WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES /MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S F/ WITHIN A DRY AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE STRONG
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
DURING PEAK HEATING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
MPH WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT...GIVEN FAVORABLY
DRY FUELS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

...SWRN NM...SERN AZ...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
TO THE N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO...AND
WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AMIDST
MODESTLY RICH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING WWD
DURING THE MORNING FROM CNTRL NM WILL MIX OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
LIMITING PRECIPITATION TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION.
LOCALLY GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO TSTM OUTFLOW.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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