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FNUS22 KWNS 271906
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...
AN ISOLATED DRY-THUNDERSTORM AREA IS INTRODUCED FOR SOUTHWESTERN UT
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NV. ON THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NV...ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUOYANCY...HOT/DRY SFC CONDITIONS...AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL LIKELY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW...PW VALUES AROUND 0.5-0.7 INCHES WILL DECREASE
WETTING RAINFALL POTENTIAL...FAVORING A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

ELSEWHERE...THE ELEVATED AREA ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WY IS MAINTAINED
WITH NO CHANGES.

..PICCA.. 07/27/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON D2/THU.
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING THE ANTICYCLONE WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG/GUSTY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN DISPLACED MOSTLY TO THE E OF CRITICALLY LOWERED RH VALUES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SWRN WY...WHERE 15-20 MPH WLY WINDS MAY OVERLAP WITH RH VALUES IN
THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE AND DRY FUELS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED A
SMALL ELEVATED AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THU AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE NWD. SIMILAR TO D1/WED...PWAT
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
ON THE NRN FRINGES OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN
NV/UT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION OCCURRING WHERE PWAT VALUES
WOULD SUPPORT DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE AN AREA AT
THIS TIME.

THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS A NARROW PORTION OF CNTRL/ERN WY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ON D2/THU ACROSS THIS REGION WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD INTO A
MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. AT THIS TIME...THE SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
OVERLAP OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS...A HOT/DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER...AND SUPPORTIVE PWAT VALUES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO JUSTIFY THE
INTRODUCTION OF AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA IN CNTRL/ERN WY.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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