Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 251921
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONSIDERED A CRITICAL AREA FOR
PORTIONS OF SAN DIEGO/RIVERSIDE COS...BUT MOST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE MARGINAL PRES GRADIENT STRENGTH AND
RESULTANT SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 15-20 MPH. THEREFORE...AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SGX...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST THE ELEVATED
DELINEATION. NONETHELESS...LOCALIZED CRITICAL CRITERIA WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS OF SAN
DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COS...WHERE POOR RH RECOVERY AND SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 20-30 MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..PICCA.. 11/25/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0243 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD WHILE AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY NEWD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL
FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY SEWD THROUGH THE TN RIVER VALLEY. UPPER
RIDGE OVER CA AND NV WILL DAMPEN AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NW.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRAVELS NNEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN SEWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

...COASTAL RANGES AND FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND MIN RH VALUES LESS THAN 10
PERCENT. POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH RH VALUES LESS THAN 15
PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN ON TUESDAY AS A
RESULT OF THE WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
20 MPH. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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