


Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
171 FNUS22 KWNS 141956 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$