Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 192001
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...Central High Plains...
An elevated area has been introduced across portions of the central
High Plains. Strong west-northwesterly downslope flow will combine
with temperatures warming into the 50s/lower 60s to result in
elevated to potentially critical wind/RH conditions across this
area. The best chance of critical conditions is across portions of
southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle and perhaps
northwest KS. However, due to lingering uncertainty regarding fuel
conditions and the southern/eastern extent of critical wind/RH, no
critical delineation has been made at this time.

...East-central NM into portions of west TX and south-central CO...
Critical conditions still appear possible across portions of
east-central NM, with elevated conditions extending eastward into
portions of west TX and the southern TX Panhandle. See the previous
discussion below for more details regarding this threat. The
elevated area has been expanded into portions of south-central CO,
where locally enhanced downslope flow will result in the potential
for elevated conditions during the afternoon.

...Portions of north TX...OK...central/eastern KS...
Strong south-southwesterly winds are expected on Monday from western
north TX northeast into eastern KS, as the low-level jet increases
in response to deepening low pressure well to the north across the
southern Canadian prairies. With very limited moisture return
expected, RH values may drop to around 30% in conjunction with the
strengthening low-level flow. There is some potential for RH to drop
even lower, which would result in an increased risk of elevated fire
weather conditions, and an elevated delineation may eventually be
needed for portions of this area.

..Dean.. 11/19/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/

...Synopsis...
The large-scale mid-level pattern is forecast to undergo
amplification on Monday as a ridge builds northward across the west.
In between, strong northwest flow will take shape across the leeward
side of the Rocky Mountains, particularly the southern Rockies. At
the surface, the lee trough across the High Plains will begin to
move east as a surface front pushes south through the Plains.

...East-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle...
Downslope warming and drying from northwest flow will result in
relative humidity falling into the single digits to lower teens. At
the same time, the combination of vertical mixing, enhanced
mid-level flow overhead, and the lingering effects of the lee trough
will result in strong, gusty surface winds -- potentially in excess
of 30 mph. This will result in elevated-to-critical fire-weather
conditions during the afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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