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000
FNUS22 KWNS 100901
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL NM...TX S
PLAINS...NW TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TX TRANS-PECOS...FAR SERN NM...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE ERN GREAT
BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE
WRN SEGMENT OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SEPARATE FROM PRIMARY BELT OF
WLYS...EVOLVING INTO A CUTOFF CIRCULATION WHILE RETROGRADING WWD
TOWARDS CNTRL CA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS WHILE ADVANCING GENERALLY
SWD...FAVORING NELY-NLY WINDS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...PRE-FRONTAL WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
FROM NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS...AND SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

...SRN PLAINS...CNTRL/SRN NM...
A CORRIDOR OF STRONG W-WNWLY WINDS /20-30 MPH/ IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
FROM E-CNTRL NM EWD ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS...AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS
OVER NW TX. SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL OCCUR...AIDED BY
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM AND THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AND PERHAPS LOW-80S
F. SINGLE DIGIT TO LOWER TEEN RH VALUES ARE ALSO PROBABLE BY LATE
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF FRONTAL PROGRESSION IS STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL ENTER
THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...BUT
RH VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN LOW /15-20 PERCENT/...SUPPORTING AN
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT TO NLY.

A SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF STRONG WLY WINDS APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS THE
TX TRANS-PECOS AND FAR SERN NM. HERE...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
BENEATH 25-30 KT OF 700 MB FLOW WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WIND
SPEEDS...W OF A LEE SFC TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

...SWRN CA...
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE WIND EVENT ACROSS SWRN CA...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS EXHIBITING DIFFERENCES IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS EVENT
/NAM MUCH STRONGER/...BUT ONSET OF STRENGTHENING NELY WINDS APPEARS
PROBABLE TUE MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS OF VENTURA...LOS ANGELES...AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES. ELEVATED TO PERHAPS CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
FUTURE OUTLOOKS FOR A POTENTIAL CATEGORICAL UPGRADE.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
STRONG NLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL /60S-70S F/ WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL STILL SUPPORT RH VALUES RANGING
FROM 8-15 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

..ROGERS.. 03/10/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...