Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 181926
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
326 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SRN NT2
WATERS...WITH LOW PRES OVER THE SRN BALT CANYON TO HAGUE WATERS.
ASCAT PASS FROM 1430Z MISSED MOST OF THE ERN PORTION OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT DID INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF 15 TO 25 KT
WINDS WITH A SMALLER EMBEDDED AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER THE
NW PORTION OF HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48
HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO DISPLAY TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW
FCST TO MOVE ACROSS N FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...THEN INTO
THE FAR SRN NT2 WATERS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY E SAT INTO EARLY MON.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIFT THE LOW NE FASTER COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/UKMET. THE 12Z CMC HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED CLOSER TO THE
GFS...BUT EVEN IT DIVERGES BY LATER TUE AND WED. CONSIDERING THE
ECMWF HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MLDS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL
CONTINUE TO GO CLOSER TO THE WIND FIELDS DEPICTED BY THOSE MODELS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT GRIDS. AS FOR
WARNINGS...WILL MAINTAIN THE GALES FOR THE INNER WATERS FFROM
HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR AND CAPE FEAR TO 31N SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
THE N WATERS WEAKEN AND THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TUE AND WED...THE GFS IS AGAIN AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TUE THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS WED. THE GFS MOVES A LOW ACROSS THE NT1
WATERS...WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC ALL INDICATE A STRONGER LOW
PASSING NEAR OR JUST N OF THE GULF OF MAINE...THEN TRACKING NE
TOWARD CANADIAN MARITIMES. WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HERE
AND CONTINUE TO FOLLOW ECMWF. THIS ALSO FAVORED BY WPC MEDIUM
RANGE. IN SUMMARY...WILL POPULATE GRIDS USING THE GFS 30M WINDS
THROUGH 00Z SUN...THEN WILL USE 12Z ECMWF FOR REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

.SEAS...SEAS CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW FT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE AND
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...WILL GO CLOSE TO THE WNA WAVE
VALUES EXCEPT WILL ADD A FEW FEET OVER THE GALE AREAS SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. THEN WILL GO CLOSE TO ECMWF WAM FOR THE REMAINDER OF FCST
PERIOD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE ESTOFS INDICATES A POS
SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT FROMT THE CENTRAL N CAROLINA COAST AND
EXTENDING ALONG THE S CAROLINA COAST SUN INTO SUN NGITH WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH
AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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