Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 240051
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
851 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS OFSHR...LATEST RADAR SHOWS HEAVY TSTMS
MOVG SE ACRS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE. AS THIS CONVECTION PASSED C-MAN
STATION IOSN3 EARLIER IT REPORTED PEAK WINDS UP TO 49 KT AND AT
00Z BUOY 44013 HAD PEAK GUSTS TO 29 KT. SO LOCAL GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE LIKELY STIL OCCURRING IN THE VCNTY OF THESE TSTMS AND A
STATEMENT STATING SO WL BE ADDED TO THE NEXT NT1 OFSHR FCST.

OTHERWISE OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE 18Z NAM/GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT
VS THEIR PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS IN FCSTG THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SE
ACRS THE NT1 WTRS TONITE...BCM STNRY ACRS THE NRN NT2 WTRS SUN...
THEN WASH OUT SUN NITE. THEN THE LATEST MDLS SHARE SMLR TIMING FOR
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TO APRCH FROM THE NW MON...THEN PUSH OFSHR
INTO THE NT1 WTRS MON NITE. SO WITH THE MDLS REMAINING
CONSISTENT...WL CONT TO USE THE PREVLY POPULATED 12Z GFS 10M BL
WINDS THRU MON NITE WITH JUST SM MINOR ADDITIONAL EDITS MAINLY IN
RESPECT TO THE 12Z ECMWF.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE LATEST MDLS GNRLY AGREE THAT A NON-
DESCRIPT SUMMER TIME PATTERN WL DVLP WITH WEAK ASCD GRADIENTS AND
LITE WINDS. TO SLIGHTLY VARYING DEGREES THE MDLS FCST THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO CONT TO PASS SE ACRS THE NT1 WTRS TUE...THEN BCM
NRLY STNRY ACRS THE FAR SRN NT1 AND FAR NRN NT2 WTRS TUE NITE THRU
THU NITE WITH VERY WEAK ASCD GRADIENTS (WITH MAX ASCD WINDS GNRLY
IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...OR LESS). SO FOR NO MAJOR REASON OTHER
THAN TO BE SMWHT MR IN LINE WITH THE LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE... PLAN ON REPOPULATING OUR FCST WIND AND WAVE GRIDS WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECMWF WAM MDLS FOR WED THRU THU NITE WHICH
WL RESULT IN NO SIG CHNGS TO THE PREV OFSHR FCST PACKAGE.



-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 18Z A LOW PRES TROUGH WAS OVER THE NT1 WATERS W/A WEAK HIGH
PRES RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE NT2 WATERS. AN ASCAT HIRES PASS FROM
NEAR 1511Z REVEALED 10-20 KT WINDS OVER THE NT1 WATERS AND 15-25
KT WINDS OVER THE NRN NT2 WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE NW NT2 WATERS
WHERE 10-15 KT WINDS WERE NOTED.

12Z GUIDANCE WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
W/A FEW DIFFERENCES NOTED FROM LATE DAY 3 ON. W/THAT NOTED RE-
POPULATED GRIDS THROUGH TUE 12Z W/12Z GFS 10M WINDS THEN LEFT
PRIOR GRIDS FROM ONGOING FORECAST IN FOR THE REST OF DAY 3 THROUGH
DAY 5. LOW PRES TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SUN W/HIGH PRES OVER THE SRN NT2 WATERS EXPANDING N
INTO THE NT1 WATERS BY SUN NIGHT. COLD FRONT STILL ANTICIPATED TO
SLIDE E OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY MAINLY OVER THE NT2
WATERS LATER TUE INTO WED BEFORE WEAKENING SOME WED NIGHT.

.SEAS...POPULATED GIRDS WITH 12Z NWW3 THROUGH TUE 12Z...THEN LEFT
PRIOR GRIDS IN FOR REST OF DAY 3 THROUGH DAY 5.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS/HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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