Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 280737
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
237 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE LTST GOES WV IMGRY INDC AN UPR RDG OVR THE COAST...AN UPR LOW
N OF THE GRT LKS...AND A SHRTWV TROF OVR THE GRT LKS. ASCAT FM 02Z
INDC AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES OVR SRN NT2...AND W TO SW WINDS UP
TO 20 KT INADVOF A FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE GRT LKS RGN...ASSOC WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV TROF. THE 00Z MDLS AGREE WELL ON THE
TMG OF THE BNDRY MOVG INTO THE OFSHR WTRS IN THE SHORT TERM...THO
THE GFS IS SLGTLY STGR WITH THE SFC LOW AS IT PASSES N OF THE AREA
TDA INTO TNGT. THE 00Z MDLS INDC WNDS AHD OF THE BNDRY WL INCRS T0
25-30 AHD OF THE FRNT...AS THE FRNTL FRCG SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME MXG
IN THE MRGNLLY STABLE ENVRMT...ESP OVR THE GLF STRM. THE STGR
WINDS ARE XPCTD TO MOVE QUICKLY E OF THE AREA TNGT...THO THE FRNT
IS XPCTD TO HANG UP AND MOV SLOWLY S ALNG THE COAST...BEFORE BFLY
STALLING OVR SRN NT2 MON NGT INTO TUE. THE 00Z MDLS ARE AGREEING
FAIRLY WELL ON THE TMG OF THE BNDRY...AND NO MAJOR DIFFS NOTED IN
THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFS ON THE TMG
AND INTSNTY OF SHRTWVS ALNG THE FRNT. THE PREV 12Z UKMET RUN WAS
A BIT STGR WITH THE FIRST SHRTWV...AND WAS A BIT OF A STG
OUTLIER. HOWEVER...THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED TWD THE REST OF THE
GUID...AND MOST ALL SOLNS INDC A VERY WK FRNTL WAVE ON MON. THE H5
ENERGY LOOKS TOO WK TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A SFC LOW...SO ATTM
FAVORING A WKR SOLN. IN ADDITION...THE GFS/ECWMF AGREE FAIRLY
WELL...AND INDC WNDS UP TO 25 KT IN THE SE NT2 WTRS LATE MON. AS A
RESULT...PLANNING ON GOING NO HIGHER THAN 25 IN SE NT2 THRU MON.
FURTHERMORE...THE 00Z GFS ALSO AGREES WELL WITH THE ECWMF ON TUE
WITH THE SECOND AND STGST OF THE SHRTWVS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED
SLGTLY WKR WITH THE WINDS FM THE 18Z RUN...AND ALL MDLS INDC THE
H5 ENERGY BCMG STRETCHED OUT...THO A LTL MORE CONSOLIDATED THAN
THE PREV H5 VORT MON. THE 12Z ECWMF INDC ABT 25 KT...AS DOES THE
GFS. AS A RESULT...SO PLANNING TO GO AS HIGH AS 25 KT WITH THIS
FRNTL WAVE AS WELL...THO WL HAVE A SLGTLY MORE EXPANSIVE AREA.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE 00Z GFS AND ECWMF START DIFFERING LATE WED
AND THU...ESP WITH SHRTWVS ROTATING ABT AN UPR LOW CTRD NR JAMES
BAY. THE 00Z ECWMF HAS BEEN VRY INCONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED WITH
THE HANDLG OF THE ENERGY...AND SFC DVLPMT HAS BEEN CHANGING FM RUN
TO RUN AS WELL. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A LTL BETTER RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...AND INDC A WK FRNTL BNDRY THRU THE N PTN WED. THE
GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE WNDS AND STRENGTH OF THE BNDRY...AND INDC
ABT 25 KT IN NT1. THIS SEEMS RSNBL GIVEN THE WK MID-LVL ENERGY
ASSOC WITH THIS SYS.

IN ADDITION...THE 00Z MDLS ARE INDCG A STGR BNDRY THRU THE N PTN
THU...WITH GFS WNDS UP TO 30 KT IN THE CAA. ALTHO THE STRENGTH OF
THIS BNDRY WOULD INDC THE PSBLTY OF GALES...THE LACK OF A
CONSISTENT SOLN CREATES HIGH UNCERTAINTY...AND CONFDC IN GALES IS
LOW AS A RESULT. THE GFS HAS ALSO BACKED OFF THE CSTL DVLPMT THU
NGT ALNG THE GA/SC COAST...AND AGREES WELL WITH THE UKMET AND
ECWMF ON HIGH PRES BLDG IN FM THE W. ALTHO NOT HIGHLY CONFDNT WITH
THE GFS...PLANNING ON FLWG IT THRU THE FCST PD...AS IT SEEMS TO BE
A RSNBL CMPRMS AND HAS SHOWN THE LEAST VARIABILITY.

.SEAS...00Z NWW3 AND ECMWF WAM ARE INIT WITHIN A FT IN THE OFSHR
WTRS...WITH SEAS LESS THAN 6 FT OVR THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRES. NO MAJOR DIFFS WERE NOTED INTO WED NGT...BEFORE THE
ECWMF WAM BUILDS SEAS ABT 6 FT HIGHER THAT NWW3 WED NGT INTO THU
WITH A STGR WX PTTN DEPICTED BY THE ASSOC WX MDL. TO REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFERRED WX MDL...WL GENLY STAY NR THE 00Z
NWW3 MDL.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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