Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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320
AGNT40 KWNM 280804
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE LTST GOES WV IMGRY INDC AN UPR RDG OVER THE OFSHR WTRS...AND
A WK SHORTWAVE TROF JUST NE OF THE AREA. THE IR IMGRY INDC SFC
HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL AND NRN NT2...AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
JUST S OF THE NT2...MOVING NW. CRNT SFC RPRTS AND 02Z ASCAT/RSCAT
DATA INDC WINDS 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
OFSHR ZONES...ERLY WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE SRN WATERS TO THE N OF
TD TWO...AND SW WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND AND NRN MID
ATLC COAST AHEAD OF AN APRCHG CD FNT. THE LAST NHC ADVISORY INDC
TD TWO WL MOVE NE INTO THE SRN NT2 WATERS TDA...WHILE
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE 00Z GLBL MDLS AGREE WELL
IN THE SHORT RANGE ON THE TRACK. THE BIGGEST FCST PROBLEM IS WHEN
THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST...AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL RECURVE
TO THE NE AS THE SRN EXTENT OF AN UPR TROF MOVING IN FM THE W ON
SUN CAUSES THE SYS TO MOVE NE. THE 00Z MDLS ALL SEEM TO INDC AN H5
VORT MAX WL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE APRCHG UPPER LVL TROF...AND THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM INDC THE TRPCL LOW WL DRIFT ALONG THE SC COAST.
THE 00Z UKMET CONT TO BE A FAST OUTLIER WITH THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM...AND INDC IT WL GET CAUGHT IN THE SW STEERING FLOW AND
TAKES OFF TO THE NE. THE REST OF THE 00Z GUID...GEFS MEMBERS...AND
TROPICAL MODELS ALL INDC THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WL REMAIN ALONG THE
SE COAST...SO PREFERRING THE 00Z ECMWF AS IT HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY AND HAS THE 00Z GFS/GEM SUPPORTING ITS SOLN...AT
LEAST INTO DAY 3.

OTRW...THE 00Z MDLS ALL INDC SFC HIGH PRES WL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PORTION THROUGHOUT A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALONG WITH
A PAIR OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FAR NE WATERS. THE
FIRST CD FNT IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO NT1 LATER TODAY...AND THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF INDC THE WINDS WL NOT EXCEED 20 KT IN THE W AND SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS. THE PREV FCST WENT
AS HIGH AS 20 KT...SO PLANNING ON STAYING WITH THAT INTNSTY WITH
THIS SYS.

ON MON INTO TUE...THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/GEM AGREE ON THE TIMING OF
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER BNDRY MOVING INTO THE NT1 WATERS...BUT 00Z GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. AS A RESULT...FAVORING THE 00Z ECWMF FOR THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...THE 00Z GFS LOOKS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE
WITH THE INTNSTY OF THE SW WINDS OVER THE SHELF WATERS...AND THE
00Z ECMWF SEEMS A BIT MORE REPRESENTATIVE WITH 25 KT. AS A
RESULT...PLANNING ON USING THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE FCST.

SEAS...THE 00Z MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH-III AND ECMWF WAM MODELS ARE
WELL INITIALIZED ACROSS THE NT1 AND NT2 WATERS. HOWEVER...THEY
ARE SEVERAL FT LOW JUST S OF THE AREA WITH TD TWO. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGRMT ON THE NRN STREAM SYSTEMS...BUT DIVERGE ON THE
TROPICAL SYS WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WX MODELS. AS A
RESULT...PLANNING ON FLWG THE 00Z ECMWF WAM SOLN TO COINCIDE WITH
PREFERRED ECMWF WX MDL. HOWEVER...WL NEED TO ADJUST FOR TD TWO.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE 00Z MODELS SHOW A
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SURGE MOVING INTO THE SC COAST TDA INTO
SUN...WHICH SEEMS A BIT OFF WITH THE SE FLOW ON THE NW SIDE OF TD
TWO PUSHING SEAS TWD THE COAST. HOWEVER...THIS IS AN EXTRATROPICAL
MODEL SO IT MAY NOT BE PICKING UP ON THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
OTRW...THE MDLS SEEM RSNBL TO THE N OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT INTO SUN.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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