Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 311905
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
205 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THO THE PASS MISSED SM OF THE WTRS...AN
EARLIER 1424Z HI RESOLUTION ASCAT-B PASS RETURNED SOLID 35-45 KT
WINDS IN THE STRONG NWLY GRADIENT THRUT THE WTRS N OF 34N. THE NEW
12Z MDLS ARE IN RSNBLY GOOD AGRMT THAT THE STRONG ASCD SFC LOW NOW
S OF NOVA SCOTIA WL BCM COMPLEX WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS BUT CONT
SLOWLY OFF TO THE NE TONITE INTO SUN WITH THE NWLY GRADIENT IN ITS
WAKE GRADLY WKNG WITH ASCD GALES BCMG LIMITED TO THE SE MOST NT1
AND NE MOST NT2 WTRS BY MORNING...THEN BCMG SUBGALE LATER IN THE
MORNING. THE 12Z MDLS THEN ALL FCST A WKNG HIGH PRES RIDGE TO MOVE
OFSHR LATER SUN INTO SUN NITE SO IT WL JUST BE A MATTER OF HOW
FAST TO FCST CONDS TO DMNSH. AS WAS DONE PREVLY... WL POPULATE OUR
SHORT TERM FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE 12Z GFS 30M BL WINDS FOR THIS
DMNSHG TREND THRU EARLY SUN NITE.

THEN LATE SUN NITE INTO MON NITE...THE 12Z MDLS HV CONVERGED TWDS
A SMLR SOLUTION FOR AN INTENSIFYG SFC LOW TO APRCH THE NRN MID
ATLC COAST EARLY MON...PASS NE ACRS THE FAR NW NT2 AND NT1 WTRS
LATER MON/EARLY MON NITE WHL PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT
OFSHR...THEN ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NE LATE MON NITE/TUE. IN RGRDS
TO THE FCST TRACK OF THIS LOW...OTHER THAN THE 12Z GLOBAL GEM
BEING SM 3-6 HRS SLOWER AND THE 12Z NAM BEING SLIGHTLY
FASTER...THE 12Z GFS/UKMET FCST NOW FCST ALMOST IDENTICAL TRACKS.
SINCE THE 12Z GEFS MEAN ALSO SUPPORTS ITS TRACK AND THE 12Z ECMWF
IS JUST SLIGHTLY FURTHER S...WL FAVOR THE 12Z GFS TRACK FOR THIS
SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO THE ASCD GRADIENTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE
ITS SPRTD BY THE OTHER GLOBAL MDLS BELIEVE THE 12Z GFS LOOKS
REPRESENTATIVE. THEREFORE TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WL TRANSITION TO POPULATING
WITH THE 12Z GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR LATE SUN NITE/EARLY MON. THEN AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFSHR WL USE A 75/25 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS
10M/30M BL WINDS FOR LATE MON/EARLY MON NITE...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL 12Z GFS 30M BL WINDS BY LATE MON NITE THRU
TUE. ALSO WITH THE 12Z GFS CONTG TO FCST A 65-85 KT 925 MB LOW
LEVEL JET TO DVLP IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WL CONT TO FCST
MOD/HI CONFIDENCE STORM FORCE SLY WINDS TO DVLP ACRS THE WARMER
OUTER NT2 AND FAR SE NT1 WTRS MON INTO MON NITE. SO OVERALL NO
MAJOR CHNGS ARE PLANNED TO THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS RGRDG THIS SYSTEM.

FURTHER OUT IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 12Z GLOBAL MDLS GNRLY AGREE
THAT HIGH PRES BLDG OFSHR LATE TUE INTO WED WL CAUSE DMNSHG CONDS
THRUT THE CSTL/OFSHR WTRS. THEN WED NITE INTO THU...VS ITS PREV
RESPECTIVE RUNS THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER FOR A NRN STREAM
SFC LOW RACING N OF THE AREA WHL PULLING A MOD STRONG COLD FRONT S
ACRS THE NT1 AND NRN/CNTRL NT2 WTRS. THE 12Z UKMET LOOKS TO BCM
OUT OF PHASE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WL BE DISREGARDED. THE 12Z
GEM/ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FCSTG STRONGER ATTENDANT SFC LOWS
WITH STRONGER ASCD FROPAS. THEN AS THE FRONT IS FCST TO PUSH INTO
OR ACRS THE SRN NT2 WTRS THU NITE THE DISPARITY BTWN THE GLOBAL
MDLS INCREASES IN RGRDS TO WHETHER A SIG SRN STREAM FRONTAL LOW WL
TRACK NE ALONG THE FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/GEM FCST SIGLY STRONGER
SOLUTIONS FOR THU NITE THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. FOR NOW TO BE MR IN
LINE WITH LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z GEFS
MEAN...WITH LOW FCST CONFIDENCE WL FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR NOW ON WED INTO THU NITE. SO WL TRANSITION TO POPULATING WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF BL WINDS FOR WED THRU THU NITE...WITH ITS WINDS
BOOSTED UP 10-15 PERCENT THU NITE IN DEFERENCE TO THE STRONGER 12Z
GFS SOLUTION.

.SEAS...IN THE CURRENT STRONG NWLY GRADIENT THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III
HAS INITIALED THE CURRENT SEAS TOO LOW WHL THE 12Z ECMWF IS
BETTER BUT A LTL TOO HIGH. THEREFORE WL USE A 2/1 12Z ECMWF VS 12Z
WAVEWATCH III BLEND FOR TONITE INTO SUN NITE. THEN AS THE DIFFS
BTWN THE TWO MDLS NARROW...WL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO MDLS
FOR LATE SUN NITE THRU WED...THEN SINCE THE ECMWF WL BE FAVORED WL
GO ALL 12Z ECMWF WAM FOR WED NITE THRU THU NITE...BOOSTED UP SMWHT
THU NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...IN THE STRONG NWLY GRADIENT
TONITE INTO SUN...THE 12Z ESTOFS IS FCSTG A MR SIG NEGATIVE SURGE
FM DELAWARE BAY NEWD UP THE COAST VS THE 12Z ETSS. THIS IS LKLY
OVERDONE AND A COMPROMISE BTWN THE TWO MDLS WL LKLY VERIFY BEST.
THEN AS THE NEXT DVLPG LOW RACES OFSHR LATE MON/MON NITE THE TWO
MDLS FCST SMLR POSITIVE SURGES DVLPG N OF THE LOW IN ITS ENELY
GRADIENT AND THEN THE 12Z ESTOFS AGAIN LOOKS TOO HIGH WITH ITS
NEGATIVE SURGE IT FCSTS TO DVLP IN THE NNWLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW MON NITE.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     GALE MON.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     STORM MON.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     STORM MON.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     STORM MON.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     STORM MON.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM MON.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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