Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 172128
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
128 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The satellite imagery still has mostly cludy skies across the
northern half of the forecast region and the lightning density map
also continues to show no lightning strikes across the region
including the areas that are overcast. The satellite pictures also
continue to indicate dry airmass across the southern waters. The
SREF model still has PROB 0 for severe TSTMS across the region but
that will increase to PROB 10 Wed night over the central waters.
The latest observations including scatterometer passes at 1756Z
still indicate higher winds over the northern waters in the gale
force range. The 1800Z NCEP map still has a series of lows that
stretch from low pressure 990 MB near 36N167E to low pressure 968
Mb near 45N166W into another low press 964 MB near 50N160w then
into Low 979 MB about 120 NM northwest of the waters. High
pressure southwest of the waters extends a ridge northeast across
the southern half of the region. The pressure gradient is very
relaxed over the southern waters but fairly tight over the north
waters.

Models GFS/CMC/UKMETHR/ECMWFHR in the upperlevels indicate a
northeast oriented upperlevel ridge across the central waters
while short waves with energy stretch from east of Japan to
washington state. The models also agree on these bands of energy
to move across the north waters and so the pressure gradient over
the northern half should remain fairly tight through most of the
forecast period.

The models GFS/CMC/UKMETHR/ECMWFHR/NOGAPS/NAM have initilaized
well with the 1800Z surface observations with just very minor
differences on the actual positon of the low pressure to the
northwest and also on the central pressure value for the low
pressure near 160W. Otherwise, the models are in decent agreemnet
in the short term with again just minor differences in the
extendeded period mainly on the strength of the low pressure that
will pass just NW of the region. Models differ on the strength of
the winds over the eastern parts of the central waters. GFS has
been hinting storm force winds over waters near Oregon and now
UKMETHR and NOGAPS have winds to 45 kt. Inland High pressure 1038
mb over NV/AZ will need to remain nearly stationary and not weaken
to allow farther tightening of the pressure gradient. But in the
upperlelvels, models indicate that energy will be spread over the
NV/AZ region and that will weaken the high pressure. So with
moderatae confidence and since most of the models except GFS have
winds below storm force in the forecast region, will keep winds
just below storm force threshold in the short term. However, the
coastal waters may have brief periods of higher winds.

In the short term low pressure to the northwest will move north
as another low pressure approaches the waters. The pressure
gradient will remain tight over the north waters through most of
the forecast period.

.SEAS...The seas are largest over the northwest peaking at 20 ft.
Seas range between 4 and 9 ft over the southern half. NWW3 wave
model fits very well with the observed seas pattern and is very
close to the ECMWFWAVE model. For this issuance will continue with
NWW3 for the seas.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...n/a.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday night.
     Gale Possible Friday.
     Gale Possible Saturday.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday night.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday night.
     Gale Possible Friday.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday night.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday.
     Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday night.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday.
     Gale Possible Saturday into Sunday night.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday night.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday night into Sunday night.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday night into Saturday.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Sunday night.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday night into Saturday.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Wednesday into Wednesday night.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday.
.PZZ925...Outer Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday night.
.PZZ830...Inner Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Wednesday into Wednesday night.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday.
.PZZ930...Outer Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Wednesday into Wednesday night.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday.
.PZZ835...Inner Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday.
.PZZ935...Outer Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday.
.PZZ840...Inner Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night.
.PZZ940...Outer Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to 120W...
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night.
.PZZ945...Outer Waters from 120W to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night.

$$

.Forecaster Musonda. Ocean Prediction Center.



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