Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 242020
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
120 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

MODELS REMAIN IN ABOVE AVG AGREEMNET THROUGH THE FCST IN
PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR VRNCS NOTED. MAINLY
LGT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT NW WINDS INCRSNG TO 25 KT
OFF THE CNTRL CALIF COAST FRI AFTN AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 35 N
BEGIN TO PRESS E WHILE LOW DVLPS OVR THE SRN ROCKIES. BY 12Z
SAT...CHC OF NW GALES NR THE CHANNEL ISLNDS. THE 30M GFS WINDS
INCRS TO 35 KT...AS DOES THE ECMWF. GFS 925 MB WINDS BARELY REACH
35 KT. AREA IS SML AND CNFDC NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED 35 KT
WINDS...SO WL CAP WINDS AT 32 KT FOR KNOW. BLV BEST CHC FOR GALES
WILL 30 TO 60 NM OFF THE COAST 12Z SAT TO 06Z SUN.

FOR THE NRN WATERS...GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN HNDLNG OF WKNG LOW OFF
VNCVR ISLND...BRINGING IT IN TO THE NWASH WATERS TNGT. PREFER THE
ECMWF/UKNET WHICH HNDLS THIS FTR MORE AS A TROF...SO USED A
20GFS/30ECMWF/40UKMET BLEND FRI INTO SAT. OTW...GFS 30M WINDS USED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST. THE GFS HAS BN SHWNG A WKNG TREND IN THE
SRLY FLOW ASSD WITH COLD FRONT FCST TO MOV E ACR THE WATERS LATE
SAT INTO SAT NGT. THE GFS 925 MB WINDS BARELY REACH 35 KT OVR A
LIMITED AREA...AND LWR LYR IS STABLE...SO USED GFS 10M WINDS...AND
EVEN ADJSTD THESE DWN A BIT. BLV THERES A FAIR CHC OF S GALES NR
SHR AS FRONT REACHES THE COAST SAT NIGHT.

HIGH PRES WILL OVRSPREAD MUSH OF THE WATERS SAT NGT INTO WED.
EXPECT AREA OF MOD NW WINDS AGAIN FM SAT NGT THRU MON NGT OFF THE
SRN CA COAST AS TUE INCRSNG TO 30 KT AGAIN THRU TUE NGT AS HIGH
PRES MIGRATES E. CNFDC NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR GALES WARNINGS...BUT
THIS A REAL PSBLTY.

THE HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE NEXT FRONT WELL W OF THE WATERS TUE
AND WED. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER TAKING THE FRONT TOO FAR E...SO WL
USE A 20GFS/80ECMWF BLEND FOR TUE INTO WED.


.SEAS...WAVE WATCH III GDNC LOOKS GOOD...SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THIS FCST. THE WAVE WEATCH HAS BACKED OFF A LTTL ON THE SRLY SWELL
FCST TO MOVE THRU THE CA WATERS THIS WEEKEND.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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