Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 011137
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
735 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 00Z MON MAY 02 2016 - 00Z MON MAY 09 2016

THE 1 MAY/00Z FORECAST CYCLE MAINTAINS A VERY CONSISTENT APPROACH
--- WITH A BREAK (WEAKNESS) IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT SATURDAY (8/12Z) --- AT
THE VERY LEAST.

THE DETERMINISTIC DETAILS STILL HAVE A `WAYS TO GO` WITH THE
OUTCOME ALONG THIS `BREAK OR WEAKNESS`--- AND THE 1/00Z ECMWF
APPEARED TO BE A LESS LIKELY SOLUTION VERSUS THE CANADIAN AND GFS
--- BETWEEN 150W-160W LONGITUDE.

THE SOLUTIONS DIFFER --- IN THE SAME REGIONS OF THE PACIFIC (AT
HIGH LATITUDE) --- NOT UNLIKE PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES. A TEMPORARY
`RESHUFFLING` OF THE PATTERN HAS BEEN SET INTO MOTION --- WITH
SOME QUESTIONS CONCERNING A STORM TRACK SHIFT IN THE BERING SEA.
SO MUCH SO --- THAT BY 7/12Z (DAY6) --- THE ECENS IS BRIEFLY
OUT-OF-PHASE WITH THE NAEFS/GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PACKAGES
ALONG 170W LONGITUDE (ALONG 50N).

DOWNSTREAM, WOULD THINK SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE 1/00Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS/CANADIAN AND THEIR CORRESPONDING MEANS LOOK LIKE
MUCH BETTER `PLACEHOLDERS` FOR THE EAST PAC AND GULF OF ALASKA.
FOR HAWAI`I AND THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC, THIS DEPICTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS AND `WAVY` SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 160W
(CANADIAN/GFS) DAYS 6-7  --- RATHER THAN A DEEP CUTOFF LOW
SCENARIO NEXT WEEKEND (THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS A GOOD DAY FASTER
WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT).

THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME FOR DAYS 6-7?--- A DISRUPTION OF THE TRADE
WINDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO THE PRONOUNCED SIGNAL FOR WEAKNESS
IN THE ENTIRE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ---FROM WEST TO EAST. AND THE
EMERGENCE OF A CUTOFF AT 500 MBS (AROUND DAY8?)--- JUST NOT AT THE
`QUICKER PACE` OF THE DETERMINISTIC 1/00Z ECMWF.

VOJTESAK



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