Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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937
FXHW01 KWNH 271204
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
804 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

VALID 00Z TUE MAR 28 2017 - 00Z TUE APR 04 2017

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER HAWAI`I FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
FEATURES LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IN THE HORSE LATITUDES, WITH (OUTSIDE
OF THE 00Z CANADIAN WHICH IS NOT PREFERRED) GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES THAT SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE STATE.  EXPECT A TYPICAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH MIGHT PICK UP STEAM
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK A TOUCH LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD, NEAR 1".  PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
AND CONFINED TO MAINLY WINDWARD/MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. BY MID-WEEK,
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE ALASKAN PENINSULA. THE
IMPLICATIONS FOR HAWAII WILL BE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE
MONUMENT, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND SOME INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE BUT OTHERWISE NOT SEEM TO
IMPACT THE TRADES.  MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANYTHING IN TERMS OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ROTH/SANTORELLI
$$





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