Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 301216
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
815 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VALID 00Z THU JUL 31 2014 - 00Z THU AUG 07 2014

THE 30/00Z ECENS AND GEFS MEANS MAINTAINED DECENT CONTINUITY AND
CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION OF A CLOSED
H5-TO-SFC LOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA INTO DAY 6.
BEYOND DAY 6, THE ECENS IS A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER
SOLUTION AT 500 MILLIBARS.

THEIR 30/00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS EARLY AS DAY 4
(4/00Z) WITH RESPECT TO DEPTH AND GEOGRAPHICAL POSITIONING OF A
SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
BETWEEN 140W-145W. BUT FOR THE MOST PART, THE DIFFERENCES ARE
INCONSEQUENTIAL FOR HAWAI`I SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECASTS.

IN THE SUBTROPICS, THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC
RUNS DO NOT WAVER MUCH WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTH AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE LOCATION INVOF 35N 140W THROUGH DAY 6. LIKEWISE, THEY
AGREE ON AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC BETWEEN
10N-15N LATITUDE WITH ADDITIONAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO
DEVELOP INVOF 15N 125W AND TO FOLLOW A TRACK THAT IS A TAD NORTH
AND WEST OF THE REMNANT `GENEVIEVE` TRACK.

BLENDING THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WITH THEIR MEANS WOULD
PROVIDE GENERIC TRACK GUIDANCE FOR ACTIVE SYSTEMS EMERGING WITHIN
THE ITCZ. IN PARTICULAR---A DISTURBANCE INVOF 18N 147W @
7/00Z---THE END OF DAY 7 WOULD BE A `STRAIGHT-UP` 50/50 BLEND OF
BOTH 30/00Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS.

PLEASE MONITOR INFORMATION FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AND NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING TROPICAL WEATHER
DEVELOPMENTS.

VOJTESAK

$$





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