Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 201204
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
803 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 00Z TUE OCT 21 2014 - 00Z TUE OCT 28 2014

...`ANA` AND HER THREATS MIGRATING TO THE OUTER ISLANDS...

SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SHIFT
WESTWARD---BETWEEN 160W-170W---AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
REBUILDS ACROSS THE STATE FROM EAST TO WEST.

THE 20/00Z DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE (ECMWF, GFS, CANADIAN)
MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE POLEWARD RE-CURVATURE OF
`ANA`---AND ITS ENTRAINMENT INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
ON/AFTER DAY 4 APPEARS TO BE GAINING MOMENTUM INVOF 30N 165W-170W.
THIS MODEL CYCLE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CPHC OCT 19/11PM LST FORECAST
`CONE` AND ITS OUTLOOK PERIOD (DAY 4-5).

BEYOND DAY 5, THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF MAY END UP BEING THE OUTLIER
IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, AND PREFER THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE
GFS/CANADIAN ALONG 40N LATITUDE. THIS IN MIND, HAWAI`I RETURNS TO
`SEASONAL` CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY TRADES RESUMING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON `ANA`, PLEASE REFER TO
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

VOJTESAK

$$




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