Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 020843
SWOD48
SPC AC 020842

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO GRADUAL CHANGES LATE THIS
WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE ERN U.S. BREAKS DOWN AND
WEAKENS.  STRONGER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES SHOULD
PROGRESS FROM BC/WA...EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  ONE OF THESE FEATURES WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY
ENHANCING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION ALONG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  WHILE ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WIND SHIFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL LAG THE FRONTAL ZONE LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
LESS-ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ALONG PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY4-6
TIME FRAME BUT CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
AN OUTLOOK THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 07/02/2015



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