Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 230839
SWOD48
SPC AC 230837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An amplified but progressive upper-air pattern will continue through
the early part of the extended period.  Offshore flow into the Gulf
of Mexico is expected through the early half of Monday and low-level
moisture will be rather marginal and slow to return northward by
Tuesday into the southern Great Plains.

Model variability is substantial by Tuesday-Wednesday (days 6-7) in
the eastward migration and evolution of a shortwave trough from the
Rockies into the central U.S.  While it seems like
moisture/instability will be somewhat limited, nevertheless it is
possible a narrow moisture/instability corridor develops from the
eastern portions of the central Plains into the MS Valley.
Therefore will maintain a Predictability-Too-Low highlight for a
potential scenario that would seemingly be on the lower tier of the
severe-potential spectrum.  By next Thursday (day 8), large
uncertainty exists but the pattern appears less favorable for
organized severe thunderstorms.

..Smith.. 11/23/2017


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