Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS48 KWNS 030900
SWOD48
SPC AC 030859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE STORMS CENTER AROUND SUNDAY /DAY 4/ WHEN THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NEGATIVELY TILTED INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN THE MOIST WARM
SECTOR. HOWEVER...EARLY CONVECTION AND CLOUDS MIGHT BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. MOREOVER...THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ATTENDING THE UPPER
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN POST FRONTAL. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO
MN AND WRN WI. GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POTENTIAL LIMITING
FACTORS...WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME.

DAYS 5-6...STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS REGION...BUT THE FRONT WILL HAVE
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MIGHT OCCUR WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE EVENT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

DAYS 7-8...PREDICTABILITY IS LOW IN THIS TIME FRAME.

..DIAL.. 09/03/2015


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