Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 280051
SWODY1
SPC AC 280050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.  SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE STRONG...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.

...SYNOPSIS/CENTRAL PLAINS...
ASIDE FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND EASTERN
GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE CURVING FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ALREADY APPEARS
TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF WANING AS THE SUPPORTING BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHERE MODEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...COUPLED WITH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION...ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  DUE IN PART TO GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO THE
EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...AND RATHER MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT BEST.  WHILE IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING...FROM
THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...COULD
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS RELATIVELY
LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 08/28/2014



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