Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 281242
SWODY1
SPC AC 281240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AND
PARTS OF THE GULF COAST AREA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...NEW ENGLAND...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE.
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NY/PA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S HELPING TO YIELD
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED FAST-MOVING AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF VT/NH/ME/MA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER
ME SUGGEST A MARGINAL RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
A COMPLEX AND CHAOTIC CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS
STATES LATER TODAY.  THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS OUTLOOK IS TO ENLARGE
THE SLGT RISK AREA DUE TO ANTICIPATED HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER UT/CO/NM
APPROACHING THE PLAINS REGION THAT WILL HELP TO INITIATE STORMS BY
MID AFTERNOON.  MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAVE LEFT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK/TX THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY A
ROLE IN FOCUSING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THESE FEATURES ARE SUBTLE AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH WILL BE
MOST IMPORTANT.  12Z RAOBS SHOW THAT VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT THE CAPPING INVERSION IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG WHICH MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER RATHER EARLY INITIATION OF STORMS.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK-BUT-SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL WIND
FIELDS SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY OF SUPERCELL/BOWING STORM STRUCTURES AS
MLCAPE VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 3000 J/KG.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS.  PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY NEED
HIGHER HAIL PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES AS DETAILS BECOME
MORE CLEAR.

..HART/GLEASON.. 05/28/2015




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