Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 161957
SWODY1
SPC AC 161956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING
OVER PARTS OF ARKANSAS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL EVENTS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI.

...DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON-TRACK WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. HAVE SHIFTED/EXPANDED THE
5 PERCENT DAMAGING WIND OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT WITH STORMS
FORMING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE EXPANDED/ADDED LOW-END SEVERE
PROBABILITIES INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE S/SEWD WITHIN A
MODEST NWLY FLOW REGIME ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANDING EML
PLUME FROM THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS.

..GRAMS.. 09/16/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OF A TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY ALONG THE RESIDUAL
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND N EDGE OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE GULF
AND SE ATLANTIC COASTS.  A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC/SC THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
DIFFUSE REINFORCING SURFACE FRONT...WHERE MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
OVERLAP A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATE BUOYANCY
THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NWD INTO THE SW STATES WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ODILE.

OVERNIGHT...A SUBTLE SPEED MAX WILL MOVE SEWD FROM SD THIS MORNING
TO THE MID MO VALLEY.  THIS WILL INDUCE A WEAK SWLY LLJ RESPONSE AND
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WAA ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A FEED OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE FROM THE W AND SW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS
ERN KS/WRN MO WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.



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