Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
932
ACUS01 KWNS 220059
SWODY1
SPC AC 220058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...A LARGE
PORTION OF OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK...EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...FROM PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
TO TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening and into
the overnight hours across parts of the southern/central Plains.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will all be
possible, primarily across the southern Plains.

...Upper Mississippi Valley to Texas tonight...
Steady advance of a surface cold front across the central U.S. is
forecast tonight, eastward toward/across the upper and middle
Mississippi Valley and southeast across the southern Plains.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along the front at this time
from northern Minnesota to western north Texas -- with the strongest
storms -- including a few supercells -- indicated from central
Oklahoma south-southwest to western north Texas.

These stronger storms are ongoing within the region of greatest
instability, with mixed-layer CAPE roughly 1500 to 2000 J/kg within
this zone.  With time, storm clustering/upscale growth toward a
quasi-linear configuration along -- and just to the rear of -- the
advancing front is expected, and thus threat will trend more toward
damaging winds and some hail, as convection shifts east and
southeast across the lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks/southern Plains.
In the short term however, while convection maintains some local
cellular characteristics in that central Oklahoma to north Texas
zone, large hail and the potential for a couple of tornadoes will
continue.

..Goss.. 10/22/2017

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.