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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 032036
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
400 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

Although the convection is not as strong as earlier today, the eye
is warmer and both objective and subjective T-numbers are
oscillating between 6.0 and 6.5 on the Dvorak scale. On this basis,
the initial intensity is now 120 kt. Blanca has the opportunity to
strengthen further during the next 24 hours as the hurricane moves
within an ideal environment of low shear and high ocean heat
content. The intensity forecast continues to be based primarily on
the SHIPS and LGEM models. The HWRF and GFDL have consistently
under-forecast the intensity of Blanca and in fact, are forecasting
rapid weakening during the next 24 hours. Beyond 48 hours, Blanca
will encounter lower SSTs, and a gradual weakening should begin.

Blanca remains trapped within weak steering currents, and the
cyclone has barely moved today. During the next 24 hours, the
hurricane should begin a northwestward track with some increase in
forward speed as a high pressure system over the southwestern United
States and Mexico amplifies, and a mid-level trough approaches the
coast of California.  Based on the latest consensus of the GFS and
the ECMWF models, the NHC forecast has been shifted slightly to the
west from the earlier one.  It appears that the high pressure over
Mexico will expand westward more than previously indicated,
which has resulted in the small westward shift of the ECMWF/GFS
model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 12.3N 104.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 12.4N 104.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 13.3N 105.4W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 14.5N 106.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 15.8N 107.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 19.0N 109.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 22.0N 110.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 24.5N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila



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