Tropical Cyclone Discussion
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918
WTPZ44 KNHC 212046
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Although the convection is not very deep at this time, the
organization of the cloud pattern has continued to improve with
various curved bands wrapping around the center. An average of the
objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers suggest that the winds are
still 30 kt. The depression is embedded within an ideal moist
environment with low shear and it is moving over warm SSTs. On this
basis, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening, and the depression
could reach hurricane status in about 48 hours or sooner. The
intensity forecast is a little above guidance given such a
prevailing favorable environment.

The best estimate of the initial motion is 280 degrees at 12 kt.
The depression is moving around the periphery of a strong
subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the
Pacific. This flow pattern is likely steer the cyclone between the
west and west-northwest during the next 2 to 3 days toward a
weakness of the ridge. After that time, the ridge is forecast to
amplify and will likely force the cyclone to move with a more
westerly component. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous
one and continues to be in the middle of the track guidance
envelope. This forecast keeps the core of the cyclone well south of
the coast of Mexico at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z  9.0N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z  9.3N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 10.0N  98.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 11.4N 100.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 12.5N 102.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 14.5N 104.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 16.0N 107.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila




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