Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300942
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N92W TO 10N100W TO 07N110W TO
08N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AT 06N122W AND CONTINUES ALONG
05N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 11N119W TO 06N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND
100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH 111W AND
114W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N TO
10N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OF 1032 MB IS ANALYZED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT
37N137W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE HIGH PRES COVERS MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF
110W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER
THE SW U.S. IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
JUST W OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS HAVE GENERATED 10-11 FT NW
SWELL THAT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
PENINSULA. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF
25N. SEAS IN THAT AREA WILL SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE TODAY...THEN
FURTHER SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 131W
BY SUN NIGHT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN MAINLY FRESH NE-E TRADES
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION FROM 09N-22N W
OF 125W WITH SEAS 8-9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THIS AREA OF FRESH
TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE HIGH PRES
LOCATED N OF AREA WEAKENS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
THE WATERS W OF 110W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY SUN NIGHT...THE
8-9 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 6-7 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE THAT AREA.

DEEPENING LOW PRES FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA TODAY WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH THE LOW
AND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVES ESE FARTHER AWAY
FROM NW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA
ON MON FOLLOWED BY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER SET OF NW
SWELL. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

$$
GR



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