Tropical Weather Discussion
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355
AXPZ20 KNHC 230933
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
933 UTC Wed Aug 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 23.5N 134.3W at 0900
UTC, moving NNW at 9 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts
to 60 kt. Convection has virtually dissipated as Kenneth has
moved over cooler waters. Kenneth will continue to weaken,
likely becoming a tropical depression by late Wednesday and a
remnant low by Thursday. Please refer to the National Hurricane
Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23
KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS
headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N130W. The
intertropical convergence zone reaches from 09N130W to 07N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
06N to 08N east of 83W, and within 30 nm south of the axis
between 126W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 90 nm of the axis between 113W and 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough will prevail across the Gulf of California
through the end of the week with a weak surface low developing
at times along the trough north of 29N. Fresh winds will pulse
off the coast of Baja California Sur from 24N to 27N. Elsewhere the
pressure gradient between this elongated area of low pressure
and surface ridging W of the area will allow moderate NW winds
off Baja California through Friday evening, then decreasing to a
gentle breeze through Monday. Seas will remain between 3 and 5 ft
during this period. Increasing southwesterly winds to the south
of the area may bring 6 to 9 ft swell to the offshore waters
south of 15N Saturday into Monday. Fresh to strong SW winds will
accompany the swell starting Sunday evening through Monday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough
through Sunday while moderate to fresh WSW winds are expected S
of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Cross
equatorial swell of 6 to 8 ft will propagate across the area
beginning on Saturday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered near 26N125 will tighten the pressure
gradient over NW waters as weakening tropical cyclone Kenneth
moves northward. This will result in an increase of seas over a
large portion of the area N of 25N and W of 135W through
Thursday. Moderate to locally fresh NNE flow is forecast
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Moderate to
fresh southerly flow is forecast south of the monsoon trough
through Friday. By Saturday, models are forecasting a slight
intensification of the southerly flow south of the monsoon trough
east of 120W. This may build seas to 7 to 8 ft from about 05N to
15N, east of 120W Saturday through Monday.

$$
Christensen



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