Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230251
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Frank was centered at 18.3N 109.3W at 0300 UTC,
or about 270 nm west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Frank is
moving northwest, or 295 degrees at 10 kt. The maximum sustained
winds have increased to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt and estimated
minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Deep convection continues
near the center, where numerous strong was occurring within 60
nm n and 90 nm s of the center. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was present elsewhere within 90 nm across the
northwest and 210 nm across the southeast semicircles. Frank is
expected continue to move northwest and reach hurricane strength
by Saturday evening. Large south to southeasterly swell from
Frank will reach the Mexican coastlines from the Cabo Corrientes
region to Baja California del Sur tonight through Saturday and
generate rough and dangerous surf. Refer to the latest NHC
forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC
for more details.

Tropical Storm Georgette was centered at 13.2N 119.4W at 0300
UTC, or about 800 nm southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula. Georgette is moving west-northwest or 290
degrees at 11 kt. The maximum sustained winds remain at 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt, and estimated minimum central pressure is
999 mb. Convection has changed little in intensity near the
center of Georgette in recent hours, with numerous strong
present within 30 nm ne and 90 nm sw of the center. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was elsewhere within 75 nm
across the north and 120 nm across the south semicircles.
Georgette is forecast to intensity to a hurricane by Saturday
morning as it continues west northwestward over the open
tropical waters. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Post-tropical cyclone Estelle was centered at 22.5N135.5W at
0000, moving northwest at 12 kt. The estimated pressure was 1009
mb. Shallow convection continues across much of the northern
semicircle within 120 nm of the center, but all significant
deeper convection has dissipated. As Estelle continues moving
west-northwest over the next few days, and over cooler waters,
the system will weaken further. Midday scatterometer data showed
winds around 30 kt across the northern semicircle, and these
winds are assumed to persist this evening. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish further through the weekend as Estelle
continues to weaken.

Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these three systems.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean along about
81W is moving west 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection associated with the broader circulation of this
feature is shifting westward from the western Caribbean and
across Nicaragua and Honduras, also extends southwest across
Cost Rica and into the southwest monsoonal winds from 04.5N to
11N between 81W and 97W. This wave will shift west across
Central America in the next 24-36 hours and continue to spawn
active convection ahead of it.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N73W to 11N77W to 08N88W to
10N98W to 11N105W. ITCZ extends from near 09.5N121W to 09N126W
to 11.5N134W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong
convection noted from 04.5N to 11N between 81W and 97W. Isolated
to widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted
within 180 nm n and 90 nm s of ITCZ between 121W and 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

North of 15N and east of 120W:

Frank is forecast to intensify to hurricane strength by Saturday
evening after it moves across or very near Socorro Island by
midday on Saturday. Frank will generate seas of 7 to 9 ft in
southeast swell that will reach the southern entrances of the
Gulf of California between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes
beginning early Saturday morning. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will cover
the Pacific offshore waters off Baja California Sur through
early next week outside of the main storm environment of Frank,
as it continues moving northwest into the open Pacific waters.
This will create rough and hazardous marine conditions across
the offshore waters, and dangerous conditions in the surf zone
across these area. Large waves and very strong rip currents will
dominate these coastlines this weekend.

A surface ridge extends from 1028 mb surface high pressure
centered near 38N130W to just north of Georgette, near 18N118W.
Moderate southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of
California between the ridge and resident troughing meandering
across the peninsula. These southerly winds may increase to 15
to 20 kt over the far northern portions of the Gulf of
California by late Saturday as high pressure builds to the
northwest. The building high pressure will also support strong
northerly winds offshore of California tonight through Sunday,
allowing northerly swell to raise seas to 8 ft or higher to
penetrate south to 26N by Sunday. Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft
will develop in the offshore waters off Baja California Norte
Sunday into early next week in mixed swell.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are expected across and
just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight
hours the next several days aided by nocturnal drainage flow.

Farther west, Georgette will move to the west of the area through
early Saturday, with associated strong winds and seas 8 ft or
greater shifting west of 120W through late Saturday.

West of 120W:

The remnant low of Estelle is blocking the subtropical ridge
from building southwest, resulting in relatively light wind flow
persisting over the deep tropics. Stronger winds persist between
Estelle and the high to the north, but this will diminish as
Estelle continues to weaken through Saturday as it moves
westward. As mentioned above, fresh northerly wind and short
period swell of 7 to 9 ft will push south of 32N to 26N between
119W and 130W Sunday into early next week.

$$
Stripling



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