Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082137
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Dec 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: North winds will increase to
minimal gale force overnight. Seas will quickly build to 12 ft
downstream of the gulf near 15N95W by sunrise Friday. The
gradient will continue to tighten Friday with winds increasing
to 45 kt by Friday night. Max seas will build to 16-18 ft by
early Saturday. Gale conditions will persist through sunrise on
Sunday, then will pulse to near gale force Sunday night. Another
brief and weaker gale force wind event is possible Monday night.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 07N91W to
10N110W. The ITCZ axis continues from 10N110W to 08N120W to
09N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 08N to
12N between 112W and 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: Scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh
NW winds in the gulf today. Winds will increase this evening,
becoming fresh to strong in the central gulf, spreading south
through the entrance to the gulf tonight. The pressure gradient
will relax somewhat Friday, with moderate to fresh NW flow
expected in the southern gulf Friday night into early Saturday.

A ridge extending from 24N116W to 16N104W will shift southwest
through Friday. Anticyclonic wind flow around the ridge will
become moderate to fresh west of the Baja Peninsula, and further
increase to a locally strong northwest breeze N of 28N within
about 60 nm of the coast on Friday and Saturday. Seas will build
to around 8 ft across the waters N of 30N with increasing winds.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh offshore winds will
become fresh to strong E of 88W tonight, and continue to pulse
to strong mainly during the overnight hours this weekend.
Seas will build to around 8 ft. A strong trough moving across
the western Caribbean will cross Central America early Monday.
Model guidance indicates possible low pressure development along
the trough as it moves from zones PMZ113 to PMZ111 next week.

Mostly light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 2
to 4 ft, are occurring elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, which
continues to meander along 10N. Light to moderate southwest flow
is observed from 05N to 10N, with combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in
southwest swell. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is expected
south of 05N for the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is centered near 29N125W with a ridge extending
southeast from the high. A dissipating stationary front extends
from 35N130W to 31N142W. Gentle to moderate northwest to north
flow is expected to the northeast of the ridge for a couple of
days. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast south-southwest of
the ridge. Combined seas are forecast to build to 8 ft just
north of the ITCZ late tonight through the weekend.

$$
Mundell


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