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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181513
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HIGH PRES BUILDING W OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TODAY WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS
DECREASE SAT EVENING TO 20-30 KT AND CONTINUE TO SUN WITH SEAS 8
TO 10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 06N90W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
06N90W TO 07N110W TO 05N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 116W AND
133W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS W OF 130W...AND S
OF 20N W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W
AND 130W TO INCLUDE BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS OVER N MEXICO
N OF 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 115W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE TROPICS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 110W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH FROM 03N TO 07N
BETWEEN 78W AND 104W.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR
29 N146W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS COVERS
THE AREA BASICALLY FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 138W. ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATES SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. TRADEWIND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 116W
AND 133W. ELSEWHERE...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SURFACE HIGH AND A 1007 MB LOW OVER N BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
PRODUCING LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. 8 FT SWELL ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 121W AND 124W.
EXPECT A NEW SWELL TRAIN TO ENTER THE NW CORNER IN 48 HOURS WITH
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

$$
FORMOSA