Tropical Weather Discussion
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717
AXPZ20 KNHC 222137
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

High pressure building behind a vigorous cold front moving east
across the Gulf of Mexico will tighten the gradient in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec tonight and allow winds to increase to gale force
starting at 0900 UTC. The high will slide quickly eastward, and
winds to diminish below gale force 12 hours later by 2100 UTC.
Please see the latest East Pacific high seas forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 06N105W to 07N140W. No significant
convection.

...DISCUSSION...

...A series of strong cold fronts and a prolonged period of
unusually large swell will continue to affect most of the
forecast area through Monday...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate southwest winds are ahead of a cold front west of Baja
California. Large seas of 14 to 23 ft generated by the front
will sweep eastward overnight. Large NW swell will continue to
propagate southeastward, continuing into the deep tropics during
the next several days. The pressure gradient will tighten off
the Jalisco Mexico coast tonight as the front W of the area
approaches, and produce a brief period of fresh to strong winds
within 120 nm off the coast. Ridging behind the front will allow
fresh to locally strong north winds to spread into the southern
Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes Monday. Strong winds
sustaining the swell event will diminish by Tuesday as the high
weakens, with seas decreasing below 12 ft in the offshore Mexico
waters Wednesday night. However, seas of 8 to 10 ft will persist
west of 100W through the end of the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the region
through Tuesday. Seas will generally range between 3 and 5 ft
until Tuesday, then build about a foot in response to building
NW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered near
31N157W is supporting strong southwesterly winds within 240 nm
ahead of the front N of 27N. Strong NW winds are occurring west
of the front. A large NW swell event continues spreading across
the waters with 12 ft seas dominating north of 21N and reaching
as high as 26 ft along 29N. Seas of 8 ft or greater encompass
the waters NW of a line from 19N107W to 14N110W to 04N129W to
04N140W. Large long period swell will continue to sweep
southeastward with 8 ft seas nearing the equator early Monday.
Global models continue to show gale force winds associated with
the cold front currently crossing the northern waters will
remain just north of 30N through tonight. These winds will
continue to generate NW swell. Seas of 18 to 24 ft can be
expected west of the front where the near gale winds are
occurring. Forecast models are in general agreement in
developing low pressure over the western waters near 12N134W on
Thursday and Thursday night. A large area of fresh to strong
winds will be possible in the vicinity of the low from 12N to
26N W of 120W by Friday morning.

$$
Mundell



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