Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171608 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CORRECTED POLO INFORMATION

TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 15.7N 102.4W 998 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 17
MOVING NW 315 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS
60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150
NM E AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. IT IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NW PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...
BECOMING A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
NE OF POLO WILL AFFECT COASTAL MEXICO BETWEEN GUERRERO AND
JALISCO THROUGH THU...WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE.
SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 30.6N 113.3W 997 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 17
MOVING NE 035 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS
45 KT. ODILE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES N-NE
INLAND OVER NW MEXICO. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC
AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N87W TO 10N96W...
THEN RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 13N114W TO 11N124W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 11N124W TO 14N135W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N140W 1011 MB.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM N AND
120 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS W OF 120W IS
MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. NW SWELL
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8-10 FT AS IT MIXES WITH
BROAD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT LATE THU.

AFTER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND
CLYCLOGENEIS ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED W-SW FLOW SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...SHOWS A MARKED DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY OTHER THAN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF TC POLO.

$$
MUNDELL


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