Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220929
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 08N83W TO
06N103W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 08N109W THEN
RESUMES FROM 08N112W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 06N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W...AND ALSO FROM 06N
TO 08N BETWEEN 134W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE AREA
NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH 30N127W TO
15N103W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER
PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL WATERS N
OF 28N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N109W TO 06N111W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W
AND 112W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 11-14 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 07-18N W
OF 127W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING AND THE AREA OF 20-25
KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS BY 24 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W WITH RESULTANT COMBINED
SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE CURRENT
6-9 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
TO SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT BY TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE
NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 KT NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT (MON NIGHT). THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH
THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
UP TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT
AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU EARLY THU. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THU MORNING WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN THE GULF N OF
29N BY THU AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF LATE
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N BEHIND IT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT...INCREASING TO MODERATE TUE NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS RAPIDLY BECOMING NORTHERLY
AT 20-30 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO STRONG GALE WED
EVENING...FURTHER INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END BY FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N94W LATE FRI.

$$
LEWITSKY



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