787
FXUS61 KBUF 101757
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
157 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unfortunately...cool and generally unsettled weather will remain in
place through the weekend. Thats not to say that the next couple of
days will be a washout...as there will be frequent rainfree periods
as well. Daytime temperatures this weekend will be a solid 5 degrees
BELOW typical mid May levels. While the mercury will TRY to get back
towards normal for the first half of next week...there will still be
a fair amount of showers around.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Rainy weather will be in place across much of our forecast area
for the rest of the afternoon...particularly over the Finger Lakes
region...as we will remain on the northern periphery of a poorly
organized storm system over the Mid Atlantic region. Lift from this
feature will be enhanced by a shortwave trough that will sag south
through the region. The whole area will not be adversely impacted
though...as enough dry air in the mid levels will allow for some
sunshine from Niagara county to near Rochester...and also across
parts of the North country.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will push the weak area of low
pressure further away from our region tonight...while a progressive
shortwave ridge will cross the Lower Great Lakes. This scenario will
be accompanied by a wedge of dry mid level air that will bring an
end to the rain in most areas while promoting some clearing...mainly
over the western counties.

A robust shortwave and attendant sfc low will dive southeast across
the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday. A swath of deep moisture ahead of
this system will push across the western counties during the midday
and afternoon...then across the Eastern Lake Ontario region late in
the day and Saturday night. The resulting lift supplied by moderate
hgt falls...low level convergence and being in the proximity of the
left front quad of a nominal 90kt H25 jet with this scenario will
prompt a renewal in shower activity as the day matures. There could
even be a thunderstorm over the western counties.

The most widespread and persistent shower activity will be over the
western counties during the afternoon. Dry weather with some
sunshine can even be expected for the Finger Lakes before conditions
deteriorate. It will remain cool...as temperatures on Saturday will
top out within a few degrees of 60.

Showery weather will then linger through much of Saturday night...as
the core of a H5 low with its -24c temps will pass directly across
our region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Shower will slowly diminish from west to east Sunday as the mid-
level low exits off to our southeast. Overcast skies will then
overtime begin to break up revealing some sunshine by late Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise...a cool day will be felt with highs in the
upper 50s across the higher terrain to low 60s.

Sunday night...shortwave ridge briefly builds in which should
deliver dry weather for much of the overnight hours. The next
feature of interest will be an occluded front approaching the
eastern Great Lakes from the northwest early Monday morning. This
boundary will slowly ooze into the forecast area with showers
becoming `likely`, and the potential for some rumbles of thunder. It
will not be quite as cool Monday with temperatures peaking in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

Monday night...this is where the forecast gets a bit more murky in
regards to the progression of the front through the region. It will
all depend on the interaction of a mid-level low spinning over the
Midwest and another low located over James Bay. At this
point...there are various model solutions ranging from very wet(GFS)
weather to it turning progressively drier by the middle of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A closed mid-level low centered over the Hudson Bay Tuesday morning
will gradually rotate eastward into Wednesday. Meanwhile, ridging to
the west across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Tuesday
night will build across the remainder of the Great Lakes into Friday
morning before the next trough dives southeast across the Central
Plains Friday.

Overall, with the mid-level closed low to the north of the area
Tuesday, its associated surface low over Quebec will support a cold
front to finish pushing southeast across the area Tuesday,
supporting widespread rain and a few rumbles of thunder to pass
across the area. Chances for showers will then continue across the
area Tuesday night through Wednesday due to the troughing overhead.

As the aforementioned mid-level ridging pushes east across the Great
Lakes, associated surface high pressure will also move into the
eastern Great Lakes, resulting in a period of dry weather Wednesday
night thorugh much of Thursday.

The next chance for showers will return Thursday night through
Friday as warm front approaches the area.

Expect a gradual warming trend throughout much of next week, with
subtle warming each day. By the end of the week the temperatures
will have rebounded to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While VFR weather will be found throughout the region through at
least midday Saturday...there will be some rain to contend with. For
the rest of the afternoon...the area of steady rain will be focused
on the Finger Lakes area. This area of weather will taper off during
the course of tonight with only a couple showers possible east of
Lake Ontario after midnight.

VFR conditions Saturday morning will deteriorate during the midday
and afternoon...as showers will redevelop...particularly over the
western counties. The increasing coverage of the showers and
possible thunderstorms will be accompanied by CIGs that will lower
to MVFR levels.

Outlook...

Saturday night...MVFR cigs with showers gradually diminishing in
coverage.
Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS with scattered showers.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with the likelihood for showers and
possible thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Improving conditons with precipitation exiting.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes (less than 15
knots) will continue on the Lakes, maintaining some light, to at
times moderate chop through today. However, there are no Small Craft
conditions forecast.

Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will then be the
rule through the most of the weekend, before a more pronounced
southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm front
approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JM/TMA