989
FXUS63 KGLD 101942
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
142 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this weekend.
  Severe weather over the weekend is not expected at this time.

- Severe weather potential may return by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

A 500 mb low pressure system is still stalled out over the Great
Basin. This afternoon and into the evening, this will send out a
weak shortwaves across the Great Plains, creating enough forcing to
start some light precipitation, but not enough for anything
organized or severe. Until about 0-3Z this evening, light showers
will be over eastern Colorado, mostly just creating virga as there
is a moderately pronounced dry layer near and above the surface.
Some light rain accumulation is not entirely out of the question for
these locations, but anything more than a hundredth or two is
unexpected. These light showers could spill over into far western
Kansas, but confidence of this occurring is less than 20%.

Saturday afternoon and into the overnight hours look to be a
different story as the low pressure system starts moving to the
east. This will provide enough forcing for some slightly more
organized precipitation, including a few thunderstorms. The threat
for severe weather is low, but not 0. MUCAPE looks to be limited to
around 300-800 J/KG and effective shear is about 15-20 kts or less.
This could lead to some pop-up storms that are quickly lived. Before
about 0Z Sunday, any storm that rapidly grows in an area of higher
CAPE could burst out, so we will need to keep an eye out for strong
winds with decaying storms tomorrow.

Sunday afternoon looks to be the "best" chance in the short-term for
some impactful precipitation and severe storms, although no
parameters look very impressive. A weak 850 mb lee low is expected
to form in the very early morning hours Sunday and move across the
CWA in the mid-day. Supplied with a 20-35 kts LLJ, we will have
plenty of moisture to work with, which does cause some concern for
flooding potential. However, due to little rainfall over the
previous week and soundings show upshear speeds around 20-25 kts (a
little fast for flooding), there is only about 5-10% confidence
flooding would occur. PWATS are near 1 inch and there is an fairly
elevated freezing level which adds to the confidence, but does not
make it certain. CAPE looks to be around 1,000-1,500 J/kg with EBWD
shear around 25-30 kts, making low-end severe storms possible (~5%
chance).

Saturday looks to warm into the upper 60s and 70s, however cloud
cover could lower these temperatures 3-5 degrees if the clouds
become more widespread and move farther east early. Sunday will be
cooler with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, due to the low pressure
system moving a cold front across the area. Tonight will cool into
the 40s; some locations in eastern Colorado could see upper 30s if
the clouds clear out early and the winds become calm. Tomorrow night
will be warmer as the LLJ will be moving warm, moist air into the
region. The western CWA will remain in the mid 40s but the eastern
CWA looks to stay in the mid 50s. Sunday night will be slightly
cooler behind the cold front, likely down into the 40s to low
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

For Sunday, precipitation chances are forecast to continue for
the area through the evening hours as the upper low continues to
track east, but accompanying troughing through the Plains will
help bring a weak low pressure system and front through the
area. The storms and showers could end a bit sooner than
forecasted as 500mb spread charts are favoring a slightly faster
track of the upper features. Severe weather remains unlikely,
but the chance is the slightest bit better with MUCAPE trying to
approach 1000 J/KG. However, shear remains weak (generally below
20 kts) so small hail would be the greatest "threat" unless a
storm can persist and produce large amounts of the small hail.
With the system and near persistent cloud cover, highs are
forecast to be a bit cooler, generally in the 60`s and low 70`s.

Monday is forecast to have the upper low leave the area and
allow cloud cover to break and temperatures warm back into the
70`s. There could still be some late afternoon and evening
precipitation chances with little to no dry air advection
keeping moisture over the area. Will either need some meso
features to spark storms or temperatures warm enough to hit
convective temperatures. Severe weather is not expected.

Tuesday on gets a bit more interesting as guidance suggests that
will be the next chance for a more pronounced upper feature to
swing through the Western CONUS. In most scenarios, an area of
low pressure develops over the area late in the day Tuesday and
sparks storms, including the possibility of severe storms. If
this scenario happened, temperatures could warm into the 80`s
with 850mb forecast temps high enough to support surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. The reason confidence is
not currently high is that the next upper feature is not one
wave, but looks to be more of a long trough with an upper low
that ejected out of it to the south. Ensemble guidance is
suggesting that this could delay the features and change
when/where the surface low forms. The warm temperatures would
remain, but the storm coverage could be changed with potentially
weaker synoptic forcing.

Wednesday and Thursday, regardless of solution, look to
continue to have storm chances with additional waves moving
through the flow and the overall slow progression of the main
features. If the trough stays more over the area and/or there is
persistent cloud cover from the upper features, temperatures
could cool back to the 60`s and 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1049 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK.
Some CU between 3,500-9,500 ft AGL are moving into the region,
but are not expected to impact flight categories. Winds will
remain north-northwesterly during the day and this evening
around 3Z, become lighter and slowly shift to be from the
south.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA