Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING BACK TO GALE
FORCE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N36W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 19W AND 29W AND FROM 01N TO 06N
BETWEEN 32W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 26N91W. GENTLE VARIABLE WIND
IS W OF 90W WHILE MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN
BASIN. WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH
EARLY SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SUPPORT THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA SW TO 18N83W. WITH NO SUPPORT ALOFT...A STATIONARY
FRONT DISSIPATES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND OVER COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PANAMA...COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS BETWEEN
THE FRONTS S OF 19N...BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W
AND 78W. WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE TO GALE-
FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL VANISH THU MORNING WHILE THE TAIL OF THE
COLD FRONT STALLS BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT
TWO DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE SW TO NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT IS VANISH LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE TAIL OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N66W SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES FROM
30N61W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
HAPPENING BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.
LATER THIS MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS
OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. THIS NEW BOUNDARY WILL THEN
DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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