Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N27W
to 8N24W moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave is
trailing a broad 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and
is along the leading edge of a surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep
convection.

Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 74W/75W
south of 15N to inland over South America moving west 20 to 25
kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is trailing a 700 mb trough as
seen on the global models and is embedded within a broad area of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
No associated deep convection in the Caribbean waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W along 8N17W to 6N31W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 8N49W to South America near 6N57W. Clusters
of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within
60 nm south of the ITCZ between 39W-46W and within 120 nm north
of the ITCZ between 39W-53W. Clusters of isolated moderate
convection are from 6N-10N between 15W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge is anchored over the south Mexico near 20N100W
extending a ridge axis northeast along 25N95W to over the north
Gulf coast near the Louisiana/Texas border. Scattered showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm along the
coast of Mexico south of 25N west of a diurnal surface trough
that extends from 21N93W to over south Mexico near 18N93W. A
second surface trough extends over the central Gulf from 27N86W
to 22N91W generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 90 nm southeast of the trough north of 24N.
A surface ridge covers the north Gulf extending from the west
Atlantic across northeast Florida to a 1019 mb high near 29N85W,
then continues to the Texas coast. This is giving the remainder
of the Gulf mostly clear skies this morning. Surface ridge will
persist through the middle of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low/trough over the west-central Atlantic extends a
trough axis across Puerto Rico into the Caribbean to 14N72W then
west to over Nicaragua/Honduras near 14N85W, then north-
northwest across the Gulf of Honduras to north Belize on the
Yucatan peninsula. An upper ridge anchored over the west
Tropical Atlantic covers the east Caribbean east of the above
upper trough. This upper ridge is advecting moisture across the
the far east Caribbean with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms southeast of a line from the Virgin Islands to
northeast Colombia including the Lesser Antilles. Remnant
showers and thunderstorms dot the area from 16N-19N between 75W-
79W. The monsoon trough extends along 10N from Colombia across
Costa Rica generating scattered showers and thunderstorms south
of a line from Nicaragua near 14N83W to Panama near 9N79W.
Tropical wave will move across the south Caribbean through
Sunday night, then over Central America Monday. Fresh to strong
trade winds will persist across much of the central Caribbean
through middle of the week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies have cleared across the island again this morning. The
upper trough will move east of the area early Monday giving the
island westerly flow aloft. The easterly trade winds coupled
with daytime heating will continue to generate afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms across the island through the first of
the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough over the far west Atlantic is north 32N
supporting a cold front that extends north of the discussion
area and is generating scattered to numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms from 30N-32N west of 70W to the coast of
Georgia and northeast Florida. An upper trough extends through a
series of upper lows from the northeast Atlantic near 33N33W to
a low near 31N39W, 29N57W, and 20N65W then continues as a trough
across Puerto Rico into the Caribbean. A remnant surface trough
is in the west-central Atlantic extending from 31N61W along
26N60W to 23N56W with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, associated with an upper low, from 24N-30N
between 54W-58W. A second weak surface trough extends from
21N48W to 15N50W with isolated showers within 75 nm either side
of the surface trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high north-
northwest of the Azores and a ridge axis extending through
32N63W along 29N75W across northeast Florida into the Gulf of
Mexico. The surface ridge will persist through the middle of the
week. A weak front will sink south into the northwest waters
later today through Monday night where it will dissipate. A weak
low pressure may develop along the front before it dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW



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