Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 271008
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
308 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A COUPLE OF FEATURES
THAT WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER OVER THE 36 HOURS. FIRST AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING CONTINUED DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS. SECOND IS AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 150 W THAT WILL
FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS
CONFINED TO THE COAST AND PUSHING INLAND INTO THE COQUILLE
BASIN, BUT I DON`T EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PENETRATE ANY
FURTHER. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
OF SMOKE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE JULY COMPLEX AND NEAR
THE SKY LAKES FIRE. THE SMOKE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME
FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST THIS WEEK
WITH NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS IN THE ROGUE AND KLAMATH RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF US THURSDAY
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES, OTHERWISE EXPECT PRETTY MUCH THE SAME
CONDITIONS AS WEDNESDAY.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER WEST OF
THE CASCADES AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO END UP BELOW NORMAL
AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT
FIRES IN OUR REGION BECAUSE IT COULD BE WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE
SPREAD CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRYNESS WERE EXPERIENCING. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND FROM
CRATER LAKE NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD SNEAK
IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES,
BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER DRY SUBLAYER AND PWATS ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE, SO SUSPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.

THE EC AND GFS DIVERGE ON LABOR DAY WITH RESPECT TO THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. THE
EC HAS THE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED NEAR 140 W WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER WEST (NEAR 145 W). EITHER WAY IT LOOKS DRY FOR THE
HOLIDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES COULD END UP WARMER IF THE EC SOLUTION
VERIFIES. OF NOTE THE RMOP SUGGEST A HIGHER PROBABILITY THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED FARTHER EAST, SO FOR NOW WE`LL LEAN
TOWARDS THE EC SOLUTION. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...COASTAL STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY HUGGING THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AT
ALL COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR STRATUS THERE
TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, IF NOT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ENTIRELY.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AS WELL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CONTINUED MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY. -BPN/MND


&&


.MARINE...UPDATED 810 PM PDT TUE 26 AUG 2014...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE THERMAL
TROUGH RESTRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE
ADDITION SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF AND
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY WITH NORTH WINDS PEAKING ON THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL LOWER BRIEFLY LATE THIS WEEK BUT MAY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BRINGS INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL.
-BPN/MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR ORZ021.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.

$$








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