Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 301137
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
437 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND MAY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR AWAY FROM THE COAST AS WERE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY, AT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED AS A
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE POINT-AND-CLICK FORECAST
FOR DETAILS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. IN SHORT, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL 15 TO 25 DEGREES FOR HIGHS BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY. WE EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
TO AROUND 5KFT TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE POSSIBLE CONTAINMENT CHALLENGES TO PRESCRIBED
BURNING IN AREAS THAT SEE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. ALSO, ANYONE
CAMPING OR PLANNING TO SUMMIT THE PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL BE
IMPACTED BY SOME SNOWFALL AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. THERE IS
ALSO LIKELY TO BE SOME MINIMAL SNOW IMPACT ON ROADS ABOVE 5KFT
SUCH AS AROUND CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND LAKE JUNCTION ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT
ROADSIDE...AND LIKELY LESSER AMOUNTS ON THE ROADS.

I`VE RETAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH 500MB TEMPERATURE AROUND
-30C EXPECT THAT EVEN STRONGER SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL, AT TIMES, DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 30F WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS THE AIR MASS IS EASILY
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER MOST WEST
SIDE VALLEYS IF IT WERE CLEAR AND CALM. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO BE AROUND, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS. THESE ARE LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE 30F IN
THE CRITICAL AGRICULTURAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT A
SMALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. TO THE
LEE OF THE CASCADES, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, THE FREEZE THREAT IS
HIGHEST ON THESE TWO MORNINGS.

FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FRESH SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE A VERY REAL THREAT OF A DAMAGING FREEZE
ACROSS MOST WEST SIDE VALLEY AREAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
DETAILS. IN SHORT, ENSEMBLES SHOW A GROWING POSSIBILITY OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS PACKING MORE MOISTURE WHEN THEY DO ARRIVE IN THE 6 TO 14
DAY TIME FRAME. DETAILS ON TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES DIFFER, SO, FOR NOW HAVE ENTERED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. WE`LL
FINE TUNE WHEN THE GUIDANCE ALLOWS FOR THAT. IN SHORT, COOLER THAN
NORMAL AND NEAR SEASONABLY WET SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE 6-14 DAY
TIME PERIOD, WHICH IS SATURDAY THE 4TH THROUGH SATURDAY THE 11TH
OF APRIL. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING MONDAY...THEN AREA OF
MVFR CIGS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED.  MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER
MONDAY NIGHT.  FROM THE CASCADES WEST EXCEPT FOR THE COAST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP AROUND 31/04Z NEAR THE COAST WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND
TO THE CASCADES BY 31/10Z.  EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BECOME OBSCURED MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVER THE WHOLE AREA...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS
NORTH OF CAPE ARAGO AND BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE. THE SMALL CRAFT SEAS
WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL...WHICH WILL PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$

BTL/15


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