Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 191015
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
315 AM PDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.DISCUSSION...Southern Oregon and northern California will remain
under the influence of high pressure today. Yesterday, Medford hit
80 degrees for the first time since October 20th last year, but we
were still just 1 degree short of a daily record. Today will be
warm as well, but high temperatures today will trend roughly 5
degrees cooler than yesterday. Expect mostly clear skies across
the area, with the exception of stratus along coast, where the
marine layer remains in firm control.

Things will begin to change on Wednesday with the arrival of the
first of several fronts that will usher in a cooler and wetter
pattern. This first front will be a bit of a sacrificial one,
weakening and dissipating as it moves onshore, with most
precipitation chances remaining confined to the coast, and inland
areas remaining dry, with the exception of the Mount Shasta area
in south central Siskiyou County. Here, upslope winds from the
south and local instability could combine with the passing trough
overhead to produce a few showers, although chances are low at
about 10 to 15 percent. A few lightning strikes are not out of the
question, although chances are much lower, down into the lower
single digit percentages. Otherwise, the passage of the system
will be marked only by cooler temperatures, with highs Wednesday
dropping another 10 degrees or so below those of today.

After a brief period of weak ridging and mostly dry conditions
Thursday, a much larger trough will approach the area late in the
week and pass overhead through the weekend. Temperatures will
return to more seasonal values, and there will be several chances
for precipitation as the trough and associated surface fronts
pass through the region. Snow levels of 5000 to 6000 feet on
Friday will lower to 3000 to 4000 feet Saturday into Sunday, and
as a result mountain snow and winter travel impacts will be a
concern, especially across the Cascade passes. Breezy winds are
also expected during this time, but should not be overly
impactful.

Seasonal temperatures and precipitation chances will then
continue into early next week as the active pattern continues,
although a day or two of drier weather is possible as short-lived
ridging passes overhead. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...19/12Z TAFs...Atmospheric stability continues to support
mostly VFR conditions across northern California and southern Oregon.
Marine stratus is still present across most of the Oregon coast,
including at North Bend, with IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities.
These conditions at the coast will continue through the evening and
overnight while VFR conditions continue inland through the TAF
period. -Miles/Hermansen

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 AM Tuesday, March 19, 2024...Wind speeds will
slowly turn today, eventually become out of the southwest by this
evening. Thereafter, a south to southwest wind will persist through
much of this forecast. A weak front is anticipated late in the day
Wednesday, and rain chances will increase (30-50%) over the waters
through Thursday.

A more impactful system looks to arrive on Friday. The forecast is
trending towards conditions conducive to steep seas, as southerly
winds increase again. There remains uncertainty for how big of swell
train could follow this front. It will also remain rainy along the
coast and the marine waters through the weekend with chances around
50-90%. Lastly, there is some indication we could have instability
over the waters leading into this weekend, so a couple isolated
thunderstorms may develop over the waters on Friday.

-Guerrero

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$


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