Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 050207 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1007 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 955 PM WED...SHRA HAVE MAINLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING WITH WITH VERY ISOLD RETURNS NRN COASTAL PLAIN. THINK WILL BE MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT WITH POSS ISOLD ACTIVITY NW TIER. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THRU REGION. AS NNE WINDS DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG TO SPREAD SW OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /PERHAPS MONTHLY-DAILY RECORDS FOR TEMPS ALOFT/ AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WAS TEMPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP LIKELY OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE REGION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE MID 60S OUTER BANKS AND UPPER 6OS TO LOWER 70S INLAND. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY LATE SATURDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THE APPROACHING UPPER CLOSED LOW SUPPLYING A ROUND OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST SFC LOW WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD CHC SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST LIFT IS REALIZED. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SCHC SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING RAPIDLY, SO FEEL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN WEST WINDS, CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ON FRIDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE SATURDAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO LESS CLOUD COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE OBX. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY JUST AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS LATE SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FEEL THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, PERHAPS DROPPING A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY GIVEN THE FRONT BISECTING EASTERN NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPS REALLY RAMP UP BY MID WEEK AS WARM RETURN FLOW INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX. LOW TEMPS INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, LOW TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/... AS OF 645 PM WED...VFR THRU THE EVENING WITH SCT CLOUD...ISOLD CONVECTION SHLD STAY E OF TAF SITES EARLY EVENING. AFTER 06Z WENT CLOSE TO HRRR MODEL WITH IFR STRATUS SPREADING SW OVER ERN NC...COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS LOW LVLS WILL BE SATURATED. THIS STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONT THRU ABOUT 12Z THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY MAINLY VFR THU. VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA DEVELOPING OVER REGION LATER WHICH COULD LEAD TO OCNL SUB VFR. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH A SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE OFF AND ON AT THE TAF SITES WITH VARIABLE WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY SCHC SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH MONDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RETURN FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN NC AND BECOME WASHED OUT. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FROPA. && .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 955 PM WED...NO CHANGES WITH NNE WINDS SPREADING S IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. PREV DISC...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF OREGON INLET SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST OF THE CRYSTAL COAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SW FLOW IS 10 TO 15 KT WHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS ARE NORTH AROUND 10 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT. EXPECT THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO SPREAD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT BECOME NE 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW 10 KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS/FRONTS WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS AND SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY, JUST AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING WASHED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY. GIVEN THIS PATTERN, EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...LEP AVIATION...RF/LEP MARINE...RF/JME/LEP

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