Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 201732 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 132 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1221 PM MON...A FEW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING FORMS ALONG THE COAST AND IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT GIVEN A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND MARGINAL FORCING BUT A FEW AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY RECEIVE A TENTH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. CLOUDS/LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 320 AM MON...STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE WILL MOVE SE...WHILE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE LIFTING UP THE NE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. NO SIG CHANGE TO PREVIOUS POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA TUE INTO WED...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST FORCING NEAR THE UPPER LOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND BY SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S/UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUE/... AS OF 130PM MONDAY...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AND A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP. FEEL SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST...SO HAVE VCSH OVERNIGHT AT EWN/OAJ. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR CRITERIA. FOG OVERNIGHT SEEMS LIMITED GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT FLOW ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 320 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE...MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TUE AND WED WITH THE FRONT AND THEN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1225 PM MON...VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS AROUND ALONG THE COAST. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP KEEP WIND OVER THE WATERS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTER WATERS MAY SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. MAY EVEN SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY OVER SOME SECTIONS AS THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 320 AM MON...TUE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SW FLOW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE SFC AND UPPER LOW DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PEAKING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. CONTINUED TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT FOR NOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT OFF THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIOD OF SCA LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH FREQ GUSTS 25-30KT LATE WED INTO THU. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU AND FRI. GUSTY NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU 10-20KT INTO EARLY FRI...SUBSIDING TO 15KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...CGG SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/LEP MARINE...CGG/CQD

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