Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 271458 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1058 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure off the coast of SC/GA this morning will move northeast today, passing off the coast of NC tonight. A cold front will gradually dissipate over the region Thursday into Friday. An area of low pressure will linger over the Ohio Valley Thursday into the weekend, then gradually lift out to the northeast early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1030 AM Tuesday...Updated to drop POPs until 2 pm to just 30% for all but HAT to Oregon Inlet area of OBX where increased to likely for rest of morning. NW edge or rain shield with initial short wave along coast has spread to OBX but on track to move off coast around noon. Rest of area should remain mostly dry into early afternoon until secondary short wave along coast and frontal boundary over central NC initiate additional activity for rest of afternoon into evening. Latest guidance is indicating best coverage along coast and west of Hwy 17, and continued likely POPs those areas with 50% scattered shower wording in between. Minor adjustments to temps with some coastal sections running a few degs warmer than expected. /Previous discussion/ As of 7 am Tue...Models in good agreement in lifting an area of low pressure off the SC/GA coast this morning to the northeast, while cold front to the west will move little, if at all. Timing and placement of rain chances today still look very good from previous package so made no changes there. Forecast soundings show instability is marginal at best, so kept mention of thunder at slight chance. Cloud cover and northeast wind will keep temps down. Highs will range from the upper 70s northern Outer Banks to lower 80s southwest. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 am Tue...Surface low will pass by the coast tonight. Best rain chances this evening at 40-50 percent. Tapered back just a bit after midnight when the low moves off to the northeast. Lows will range from the mid 60s coastal plain to lower 70s Outer Banks. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Tue...Unsettled through Thu then a bit drier by the weekend. Wed through Thu...Weakening cold front will cont over the region Wed and Thu as big upr low conts to the NW. Axis of good moisture will remain over eastern NC leading to at least chc of shra and poss a few tsra. Best chcs will be inland Wed and have pops just below likely. Precip may become a bit more sct into Thu and have lower chc pops area wide. Temps close to seasonal for late Sept with highs 70s to lower 80s and lows 60s inland to around 70 beaches. Fri through Mon...The upr low to the NW will slowly move NE into the weekend as sfc front conts to dissipate. Drier mid lvl air will spread in from the W Fri with slight chc of shra over ern portions of the area. Not much change Sat into Mon with mdls keeping bulk of moisture near cst and offshore so will cont slight pop imd cst and dry inland. Highs will cont near seasonal lvls with upr 70s to around 80. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/ As of 7 am Tue...VFR for the 4 terminals through the short term, except sub-VFR in scattered showers. Heavy rain not expected, so visibilities in showers will likely remain MVFR. Instability marginal, so any thunder will be isolated. Surface winds will be southeast around 5 knots today, and variable 5 knots or less tonight. Long Term /Wed through Saturday/... As of 3 AM Tue...Decent coverage of shra into Thu with poss some isold trsa. The precip will lead to a few periods of sub VFR thru Thu. Drier air will work in from the W Fri with decreasing chc of shra and mainly VFR thru Sat...there will be threat of some late night and early morning fog and stratus with light winds late week. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/ As of 1030 AM Tuesday...Updated for changes to precip wording rest of day but no change to winds/seas. Current SE to S winds will back to E and NE this afternoon through tonight as low moves up from south. /Previous discussion/ As of 7 am Tue...Low pressure off the coast of GA/SC this morning will move northeast today and pass by the NC coast tonight. Wind direction will gradually back from southeast today to east this evening, then north late tonight as a result. Pressure gradient remains loose, so winds forecast no higher than 10-15 knots. Seas will average 2-4 feet across the coastal waters today. Tonight some slightly higher seas of 3-5 feet forecast from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout, with 2-4 feet elsewhere. Scattered showers through the short term, with isolated thunder possible. Long Term /Wed through Saturday/... As of 3 AM Tue...Light mainly NNE winds in wake of low early Wed quickly returns to light S or SE later in the day with weakening cold front to the W. Predominately S to SW winds 15 kts or less Thu into Fri as dissipating front drifts to the cst. Light winds Sat with the front or whats left of it near cst. Seas thru the period will be mainly 2 to 4 feet...could flirt with 5 ft at times far outer waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095- 103-104. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...JBM/HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...RF AVIATION...RF/HSA MARINE...RF/JBM/HSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.