Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 231633 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1233 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the northwest today and gradually move across the area tonight and Thursday. Strong high pressure will build in from the north Friday through Sunday, while an area of low pressure develops along the stalled frontal boundary off the Southeast coast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 1230 PM Wednesday...Latest visible satellite showing some cumulus streets starting to develop inland, but no convective development as of yet. Most of the high-resolution models indicate some scattered storms along the sea breeze this afternoon with better coverage associated with the front later on this evening. At this point, no major changes made to the forecast with low chance until later in the day. Some stronger storms will be possible this evening with surface-based CAPE in the 2500 J/kg range and precipitable water increasing to over 2 inches. Some locally strong storms with gusty winds, along with heavy downpours will be likely, especially inland. Based on current readings, raised maximum temperatures a degree or two.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...Main change with this forecast issuance was to adjust POPs/weather to reflect trend of higher likely POPs gradually spreading NW to SE across area during the evening with a decreasing trend for inland sections late tonight. Frontal boundary and shortwave will be moving into area and do expect good coverage of showers/tstms to affect all zones during the night. Main threat of a few stronger storms with possible downburst winds will be mainly during evening with higher build shear. Also added mention of locally heavy rain as PWat values increasing to over 2.25 inches and some possibility of repeating cells. Min temps mainly low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 255 AM Wed...Below normal temps expected through the period. Unsettled wx expected late weekend into next week with the potential for tropical low development along the SE coast, though much uncertainty remains regarding this system. Thursday through Saturday...The slow moving front will continue to push south through the area Thursday. Scattered showers and storm threat will continue, tapering off from NW to SE late Thu and Thu night. Strong high pressure will build in from the north Friday and Saturday, with broad upper troughing across the area, while stalled frontal boundary lingers off the SE coast. Isolated showers Fri, with best chances along the southern coast. Drier air filters into the area this weekend, with forecast soundings showing PWAT values dropping below 1" inland. Depending on the track and strength of the developing low off FL this weekend, could see some showers skirt the coastal areas but at this time expect bulk of precip to remain offshore. Low level thickness values and NE/E flow support temps several degrees below normal, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows 60-70 degrees. Sunday through Tuesday...Models continue to show possible tropical low development along the stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast this weekend into the middle of next week...though much uncertainty remains on how this system will evolve, given how far out in time and varying model solutions/lack of run to run consistency. Low is forecast to strengthen off the FL coast Sat night and Sun, slowly lifting NE Mon through Wed. The 00z GFS is slightly weaker/faster than previous runs, but moves it closer to the coast...the 00z ECMWF and CMC are also slightly weaker and further offshore than their previous runs. Precip chances increase Sun through Tue as low lifts northeastward. Models also continue to show the remnants of Harvey interacting with a frontal boundary over the Gulf Coast region, and pushing northeast. Alot of uncertainty with how this system will evolve as well, with the GFS much faster and bringing the remnant system through the SE US, while the ECMWF is much slower and keeps most of the moisture west of here. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short Term /through 18Z Thu/ As of 1225 PM Wednesday...Generally VFR for the rest of the afternoon as scattered cumulus is forming quickly over inland areas. May see some brief sub-VFR conditions in scattered sea breeze variety thunderstorms this afternoon, but the main action will come ahead of the cold front later this evening where some locally strong storms may occur. Most of the numerical guidance indicates a brief period of MVFR fog and perhaps stratus in the wake of the cold front early Thursday morning. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 255 AM Wed...Sub-VFR conditions could continue Thu and Thu night, with low MVFR stratus possibly becoming locked in behind the front with low level NE winds. Pred VFR conditions expected Friday through Sunday, with increasing cloud cover late Sat and Sun as low strengthens off the SE coast.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 1230 PM Wednesday...Very little change in the marine forecast on this update as SW winds continue at around 15 knots with a few higher gusts over the central waters. Seas are 2-4 feet, but the longer period swells are now confined to the far northern waters. A cold front approaches from the northwest later tonight. Weakening pressure gradient as cold front approaches waters tonight will allow winds and seas to gradually diminish but there will be an increasing chance of showers and tstms. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 255 AM Wed...A prolonged period of NE winds 10-20 kt expected behind the front Thursday night into Friday, strong winds and rough seas developing this weekend and continuing into next week. SCA conditions likely to develop this weekend and continue into next week. A slow moving front will continue to push south through the waters Thursday, with winds gradually becoming northeast behind the front. Strong high pressure will build in from the north Thu night through Saturday. NE/ENE winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft through Fri. Models are still showing the potential for tropical low development along the stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast this weekend into early next week. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty given how far out in time and the varying model solutions. The 00z GFS is slightly weaker than previous runs, but moves it closer to the coast...with the 00z ECMWF slightly weaker and further offshore than the previous run. Strong E/NE winds and rough seas are expected late weekend into next week. Though given the uncertainty in how this system will evolve (track and strength), will cap seas at 6-9 ft for now. Mariners should continue to monitor this situation over the next several days.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095- 103-104. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CTC/CQD MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD

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