Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 261644 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1245 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1239 PM SUN...CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES AND NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN BULK OF LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED OFFSHORE BUT WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LINGERING EVENING SHOWER OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR BUT EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 4 AM SUN...LATEST RUN OF GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. WILL USE MODEL BLEND THROUGH 12Z THEN HPC SURFACE SOLUTION THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW IN THE GULF DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LOW TRACKS JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TRACK REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. RAIN WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS SOUTH ON THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLASSIC COLD SEASON "WEDGE" PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER NC TODAY WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A FRONTAL INVERSION LEADING TO WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS. EXPECTING SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT FROM LIFR/IFR TO MVFR AROUND 18Z THEN FROM MVFR TO VFR AROUND 00Z. EXPECTING GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG. FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK VERY SHALLOW THOUGH SO EXPECTING GROUND FOG AND NOT MUCH IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 4 AM SUN...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST. SUB-VFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTH 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1242 PM SUN...NORTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVSORY WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL TEND TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KT TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 4 AM SUN...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS BY JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY DEPART DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. SMALL CRAFT SEAS FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE TUESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW ON THURSDAY IS STILL NOT CERTAIN. FOR NOW FORECASTING SMALL CRAFT SEAS TO RETURN ON THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...BUT FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...CGG SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JME/HSA MARINE...CGG/JME/HSA

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