Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 300159 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 959 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Atlantic will continue through the Sunday producing near record highs over Eastern North Carolina. A cold front will approach from the west Monday and cross Eastern NC Tuesday morning. High pressure will build in behind the front Wednesday. A strong and slow moving low pressure area will affect the region late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 10 pm PM Sat...Warm and muggy night on tap again across E NC as SW breezes keep pumping in the unseasonably warm temperatures with lows generally upper 60s interior to low 70s coast. Mostly clear skies may increase in coverage just like last night with sct/bkn low clouds developing. May be some sea fog yet again esp north of Hatteras where waters are cooler. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 315 PM Sat...Flow regime will be unchanged for the most part on Sunday, so another very warm day on tap with some near record highs (climate sxn below). Perhaps a degree or so cooler than Sat as low level thicknesses just a tick lower. No precip chances as high pres will be strong sfc and aloft. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 PM Saturday...Models remain in decent agreement through mid week with progressive upper low moving from plains into Great Lakes breaking down upper ridge over SE US Sunday night into Tuesday, followed by zonal flow Wednesday. The flow will become more amplified late next week with the models indicating the potential for a strong upper low to affect the southeast and mid Atlantic states. There is much uncertainty regarding details with this system but there is a potential for heavy rain and possibly severe weather Thu/Fri. Sunday night...Ridging surface and aloft will result in another warm night with lows mid 60s to around 70. NAM12 does indicate possible scattered light shower threat with southerly flow overnight which is in line with synoptic climo profiles of showers along coast as front moves into eastern TN. However, other models are dry and will not intro POPs at this time. Monday through Wednesday...A cold front will approach from the W late Mon and slowly cross the region Mon night into early Tue. Temps remain warm Mon with a low chc of some convection espcly inland during the aftn as the front approaches. Most models continue to indicate a decent coverage of precipitation Mon night/early Tue and will continue likely POPs this period. ECMWF had trended dry with 00Z run but showing good coverage again with 12Z run, thus continued confidence in higher POPs. Lingering shra ends from W to E Tue morning with the front sliding offshore. Highs Mon will again climb well into the 80s then cool into the mid 70s to around 80 Tue behind the front. High pressure is forecast to build into the area Tue night and Wed with dry weather and temps moderating into the low 80s inland. Thursday through Saturday...12Z ECMWF has come back in line with GFS indicating upper low cutting off near Gulf Coast Thursday- Friday and then slowly moving across SE US into weekend. Other models continue to indicate more progressive solution, thus a low confidence forecast. Uncertainty on details this far out but there is a potential for heavy rain and/or severe weather Thu night and Fri. Will indicate a continued threat of showers/tstms into Saturday. Cooler temp trend is more likely with either solution. Highs still around 80 Thrusday and then in 70s Friday-Saturday. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /Through 18Z Sunday/... As of 10 pm Sat...Winds will become light tonight with sct/bkn MVFR cigs developing yet again as fcst will be based on persistence from last night. No fog expected as bndry layer will remain somewhat mixed due to the 4-7 kt winds overnight. Skies become mostly sunny on Sunday with another dry day on tap with SW winds 10-15 kt. Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/... As of 340 PM Saturday...VFR expected to prevail through Monday with enough nocturnal mixing to preclude fog development. A cold front will be moving across the area Mon night into early Tue with better coverage of shra and storms with periods of sub VFR conditions possible. High pressure builds in behind the front late Tue through Wed with a return to prevailing VFR conditions. Some sub-VFR possible with possible shra and tstms developing Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Sunday/... As 10 pm Sat...S to SW winds of 10-20 knots will continue as sprawling Bermuda high pressure remains anchored offshore. Seas will be 2-4 ft through Sunday with a wind dominated periodicity around 5 seconds. Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/... AS of 340 PM Saturday...Moderate SW flow of 10-20 kts with seas around 3-5 ft expected thru Sun night around offshore high pressure. An approaching cold front will increase SW winds to 20-30 kt Mon through early Tue with low end Gales possible central waters. Seas are forecast to build to 7-11 ft by late Mon/Mon night into early Tue. SW winds diminish to 10-20 kt Tue, briefly become NW around 5-15 kt late Tue night, then back to southerly 10 kt Wed. Seas slowly subside Tue and Tue night, dropping below 6 ft late Tue night and to 2 to 4 ft Wed. SW winds will increase to 20-25 KT ahead of cold front Thursday with seas building again to 4-6 FT. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 3 PM Sat...The Tar River in Greenville is expected to reach moderate flooding, while Contentnea Creek in Hookerton is in major flood stage. The Neuse River in Kinston is now at minor flood stage, and is forecast to increase further to major flood stage next week. The NE Cape Fear River in Chinquapin forecast remains in minor flooding. The Roanoke River is forecast to rise over the next several days due to increased flow out of Kerr Dam but is expected to remain below flood stage. Additional rainfall forecast for Monday night into Tuesday is not expected to have a significant impact on the high water levels. && .CLIMATE... Record highs are possible Sunday with an extremely warm air mass over Eastern NC. RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 04/30 --------------------------- LOCATION TEMP/YEAR NEW BERN 91/1974 (KEWN ASOS) CAPE HATTERAS 84/1974 (KHSE ASOS) GREENVILLE 92/1957 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS) MOREHEAD CITY 86/1957 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS) KINSTON 94/1906 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS) JACKSONVILLE 90/1987 (KNCA AWOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TL NEAR TERM...HSA/TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...HSA/TL/JBM MARINE...HSA/TL/JBM HYDROLOGY...MHX CLIMATE...MHX

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