Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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740 FXUS62 KMHX 060601 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 101 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... AS OF 101 AM SAT...NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FCST. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1031MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VA THIS EVENING...EXTENDING INTO THE SE. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPS DROPPING QUICKLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO EASTERN NC AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY....SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH THE COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST TO MILDEST SOUTHWEST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A MEAN 500 MB UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...FROM LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT COULD BE QUITE STORMY ACROSS COASTAL EASTERN NC WITH STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE AS A MAJOR SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EVOLVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT: A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...CARVE OUT THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO "BOMB" OUT SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEG TILTED. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT CENTRAL PRESSURES COULD DROP INTO THE 970`S! THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST DOES THIS SYSTEM GET AS THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE IMPACTS THAT OCCUR SUCH AS THE AMOUNT OF PCPN, AND IF ANY WINTRY PCPN OCCURS AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. THERE COULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM INLAND TO THE COAST AND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVING THE GREATEST IMPACTS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS OR WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS WELL AS COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF HEADLINES. IF HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES, THEN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AS MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS JUST EXPERIENCED 3-6" OF RAIN WED AND THU. BEST THREAT FOR ANY WINTRY PCPN WOULD BE INLAND WHERE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT DYNAMIC COOLING COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A NARROW SWATH OF SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. MON AND MON NIGHT: MON COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTING AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 50S. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MON/MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THIS FRONT IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NC. TUE THROUGH FRI: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TUE THROUGH THU. COMPLEX CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OFF THE MID ATLC-NE COAST TUE AND WED KEEPING EASTERN NC IN A COLD BUT MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS TUE BUT THINK DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS COULD OCCUR LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT/HEIGHTS RISE. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 101 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PD. EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME RADIATION BR AT KOAJ/KPGV AS T-TD SPREADS NEAR 0 CURRENTLY AND CALM WINDS. MAINLY SKC SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY AS NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N-NE THROUGH THE TAF PD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRI...SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SUB VFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW PULLS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 10 PM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA SHOW N/NNE WINDS 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING...NOW 5-8FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 2-5FT SOUTH. DROPPED SCA FOR SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE BASED ON LATEST OBS WITH SEAS DOWN TO 3-5FT. NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS 10-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NE SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE. CENTRAL WATERS WILL REMAIN IN SCA FOR MOST OF THE DAY SAT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRI...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUN/SUN NIGHT AND ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ON SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE NORTHEAST...PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STORM TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FT. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AND WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 6 FT OVER THE NC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 3 PM FRI...RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF OF THE NC COAST WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND BASIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AREAS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND/NEUSE RIVER ALONG DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY (INCLUDING CEDAR ISLAND) TO OCRACOKE AND OVER PORTIONS OF HATTERAS ISLAND VULNERABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. ON THE OCEAN SIDE WATER LEVELS OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. SHORE BREAK IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO BEACH EROSION AND SOME OCEAN OVERWASH. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ095-103-104. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ095-103-104. MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ135-152-154. GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130-131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154. STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ156-158. GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME/BM NEAR TERM...CQD/TL/BM SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/CQD/TL MARINE...JME/CQD/BM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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