Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 160711 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 310 AM TUE...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE SUPPLY AND DYNAMICS NOT THAT GREAT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONFINE POPS TO THIS AREA TODAY WITH THE REMAINDER DRY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 310 AM TUE...THE FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE A RATHER WELL DEFINED VORT CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AREAS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 310 AM TUE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY WET/SHOW HIGH PRECIP CHANCES IN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. HOWEVER IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW OVER THE AREA SO NOT MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED. ILL LEAN TO FORECAST PERSISTANCE WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS WED AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WED/THU WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WED AND MID TO UPPER 70S THU. LOWS WED NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST. UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY. DESPITE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS (LOW 80S) BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT APPPROACHING FROM THE NW MON SO KEPT SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS/TSTORMS BEGINNING MON AFTN WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 MOST SPOTS. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/ AS OF 310 AM TUE...VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT OAJ AND EWN WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ AS OF 310 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR THRU THU ALTHO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. FRI AND SAT LOOK TO CONT WITH VFR AS STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP CHCS AND BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/ AS OF 310 AM TUE...COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY...THEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET TODAY. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL REACH THE WATERS DURING THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS DEVELOPING ALL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 310 AM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED INTO WED NIGHT. SWELL WILL DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS, HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE AND CONT THRU FRI WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...BTC AVIATION...HSA/BTC MARINE...HSA/BTC

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