Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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455 FXUS62 KMHX 250445 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1245 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through early next week. A cold front will move through Wednesday followed by high pressure to the north Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1245 AM Saturday...High pressure offshore will continue extend across Eastern NC overnight producing a mild southerly flow across the region. An area of high based convective blow off currently over Central NC will be moving east across our region overnight and these clouds may be opaque enough to limit radiational cooling/patchy fog potential late tonight if in fact winds decouple after 9Z as indicated in the MOS guidance. Lows will up to 15-20 degrees warmer than last night, ranging from around 50 inland to lower 50s coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...dry warm sector conditions will prevail with some increase in high cloudiness ahead of upper low moving into Ohio Valley-Gulf coast region. Some CU/SCU likely as well with heating. Guidance in good agreement for max temps mid to upper 70s inland and around 70 coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM Fri...Above normal temperatures expected through the period...with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early next week. Precip chances increase again late next week. Saturday night through Tuesday...High pressure will remain anchored off the southeast coast, as frontal boundary slowly approaches from the west. Warm moist S/SW flow expected across the region, and low level thickness values support highs 65-70 degrees along the Outer Banks, and upper 60s to upper 70s inland. Overnight lows generally in the 50s. Weak shortwave moves through the Carolinas Sunday, and could support an isolated showers/tstm across the coastal plain, but will continue dry forecast, with best forcing west of the area. Similar set up for Mon with isolated convection possible inland. Better precip chances Tue as main front and trough move into the Mid-Atlantic and SE US. Will continue high chance pops Tue. Tuesday night through Friday...Latest guidance shows front pushing through late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the north Wed and Thu, as another frontal system approaches late week. Models in fairly good agreement late week into next weekend, showing stacked low moving through the Mid-West Thu and Fri, pushing a warm front through ENC Friday, with associated cold front Sat as low pressure moves through the Mid-Atlantic. Continue slight chance/low chance pops Tuesday night, and dry for Wed and Thu. Increased pops to chance Fri. At this time does not seem like a significant airmass change behind the front, with temps still near to above normal in the mid 60s to mid 70s Wed...and a few degrees cooler Thu and Fri. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /Through Saturday evening/... As of 1245 AM Friday...VFR conditions expected for most of the TAF period. Dry high pressure offshore will continue to extend over Eastern NC through Saturday night. Could see patchy fog late tonight provided 1) winds decouple per MOS guidance and 2) High based convective debris clouds moving into the area overnight are not sufficiently opaque to inhibit radiational cooling. Any fog should dissipate rapidly after sunrise with scattered to broken high based cumulus this afternoon. Late Saturday night after 6Z there appears to be a better potential for MVFR ceilings and sub VFR visibilities in fog and stratus. Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 215 PM Fri...Pred VFR through the period, with periods of sub-VFR possible Monday and Tuesday in scattered showers and isolated tstms. Patchy fog possible across the coastal plain Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Saturday/... As of 1245 AM Saturday...Wind speeds continue 15 to 20 kt late tonight but are forecast to diminish to 10 to 15 kt around 9Z. Seas will remain 2 to 4 ft overnight. On Saturday, high pressure extending over area from offshore will produce SW winds 5-15 KT with seas mainly 2-3 feet. Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 215 PM Fri...High pressure will remain anchored off the coast through Tuesday, as a slow moving cold front approaches the waters. The front will move through the waters early Wednesday. S/SW winds generally 5-15 kt expected into early next week. Seas 2-4 feet Sat night through Sunday night. Models continue to show waves building to 3-5 feet Monday afternoon. Could see some 6 ft seas develop Monday night and Tue south of Oregon Inlet in combo of SW winds and increasing swell energy. N/NE winds 10-15kt developing behind the front Wed and Wed night. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME/JBM NEAR TERM...RSB/JME/JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...RSB/JME/CQD/SGK MARINE...RSB/JME/JBM/CQD

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