Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 051809 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 109 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1100 AM THU...NICE 42 DEGREE DIFFERENTIAL ACROSS CWA WITH 38 NRN OBX AND 80 AT KEWN. ARCTIC FRONT HAS PUSHED S OF KPGV-KOCW TO JUST N OF KHSE LINE AND ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS SRN AREAS BY LATE AFTN. MAIN CHANGES WITH UPDATE WERE ATTEMPT TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMP AND DEW PT TRENDS...AND DID LOWER POPS OVER SRN SECTIONS WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST IN WARM SECTOR. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NRN SECTIONS IN WAKE OF FRONT AND CATEGORICAL POPS GRADUALLY SPREADING S ON TRACK. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 80 KEWN- KNCA-KOAJ AREAS. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 737 AM THUR...STRONG COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING NORTHERN ZONES WITH A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN WINDS TO NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND NEAR 50 NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PLODDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS E NC THROUGH THE DAY...FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGHT THE CRYSTAL COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT IS AN ANA FRONT... WITH ALL OR MOST OF THE PRECIP BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY. STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPS AS WARM 850MB SW WINDS ABOVE THE SFC COLD POOL WILL INDUCE STRONG LOW LEVEL FGEN AND A DRAMATIC LOWERING OF CLOUD CEILINGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT. NEAR SFC TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING JUST AFTER THE EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS WHEN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TAKES EFFECT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... AS OF 430 AM THUR...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MIXED SLEET AND FZRA NORTH OF HWY 70. HAVE LEFT OUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES ATTM DUE TO TEMPS TAKING LONGER TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK. NO SNOW EXPECTED IN THE FA AS BULK OF OMEGA WILL BE IN THE SUB DGZ...AND IMPRESSIVE WARM NOSE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE 850-850 MB LEVEL. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE A FZRA/SLEET MIX AS NEAR SFC LAYER MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A REFREEZE TO ICE PELLETS THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD CUT DOWN ON FZRA ACCUMS... AND AT THIS TIME EXPECTING UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIGHT FZRA ACCRUAL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RECENTLY WILL PREVENT BIG PROBLEMS ON ROADS...THOUGH BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER DRYING OCCURS AFTER AROUND 6Z WITH MAJORITY OF ORGANIZED WINTRY PRECIP EXITING OFF THE COAST. SOME LINGERING -FZDZ MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND HAVE AN EXPIRATION TIME OF 9Z FOR THIS REASON. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL INCLUSION OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO THE ADVISORY IF TEMPS DROP MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 450 AM THURSDAY...THE LAST GASP OF WINTER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A RETURN TO MORE MODERATE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY WITH REGARDS NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER THAN 24 HOURS AGO MOS POPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NON ZERO THREAT OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. EARLY IN THE PERIOD IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN THEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST INTO THE MID 30S SOUTH AND LOWER 30S NORTH CHANGING ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CLEARING AND VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND WILL PRODUCE COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE ECMWF AND MAV MOS ARE INDICATING TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THE MID TO UPPER TEENS! DID NOT GO QUITE THAT LOW JUST YET WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE AROUND 20 INLAND TO THE UPPER 20S BEACHES. MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT COUPLE OF SRN STREAM SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS FORECAST AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUE-WED. WILL COVER WITH 20% CHC OF RAIN TO INDICATE LOW FCST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... AS OF 100 PM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THIS...LLWS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS AROUND 2KFT WILL BE AROUND 40KTS THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR/LIFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE REGION. FOG EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 21Z-06Z. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. SLEET AND ICE ACCRETION IS MAINLY A CONCERN AT THE KPGV SITE...BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY AND CLEAR FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER CLOSE TO THE COAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 450 AM THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY. CLEARING EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE REST OF PERIOD. GUSTY N-NE WINDS 15-25 MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF FRONT INTO FRIDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/ AS OF 1100 AM THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WATERS AND ON TRACK TO PASS THROUGH SRN WATERS BY EARLY EVENING. VSBYS IMPROVING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVSY TO EXPIRE NRN WATERS...AND EXPECT TO DROP SRN WATERS AT 2 PM. WILL CONSIDER HIGH SURF ADVSY N OF HAT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH 4 PM ISSUANCE. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 737 AM THUR...MARINE DENSE FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING DUE TO SW WARM FLOW OVER COLD WATERS. THE DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS/ALBEMARLE SOUND THIS MORNING AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH SHARPLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MID AFTERNOON...SO WILL LEAVE MARINE FOG ADVISORY INTACT LONGER HERE. GALE WARNINGS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT SCA SRN RIVERS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIOD OF 25 TO 35 KT WINDS ACROSS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS LOCATED AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH THE MORNING...REACHING THE CRYSTAL COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. SW WINDS 10-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SWITCH RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 450 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IN AFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE SRN RIVERS WHERE AN ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 35 KT EARLY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT LATE FRIDAY AND 10 TO 15 KT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL REST OF WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-091>094-103. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-137. GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-152-154-156-158. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME/TL NEAR TERM...JBM/TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...JME/JBM AVIATION...JME/LEP MARINE...JME/JBM/TL

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