Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 292206 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 606 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...PREV FCST ON TRACK WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED. FEW CU INLAND WILL DISSIPATE WITH LIMITED MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING AS DEWPTS CREEP UP. LOWS MAINLY LOWER 7OS INLAND TO MID/UPR 70S BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EASTERN NC WILL BE BETWEEN A FRONT TO THE WEST AND A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SFC DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...CONDITIONS WILL STAY SURPRISING DRY ACROSS THE AREA. IT SEEMS THE SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL CREATE SOME SUBSIDENCE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH SOME DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. WITH THE FRONT HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO EVEN MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. IF THE SFC LOW MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE COAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...STALLING JUST ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THEN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM...KEEPING THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE FEEDS FROM THE GULF. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF WPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FAVORING THE ECMWF SCENARIO. CHANCE POPS FRI THROUGH MON DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING WITH THE FRONT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FRI. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR SHLD DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME...HOWEVER TRICKY FCST FOR FOG/ST LATE TONIGHT AS PERSISTENCE WOULD FAVOR VERY LITTLE WHILE MOST GUIDANCE SHOW QUITE A BIT. APPEARS WILL HAVE VERY FEW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WOULD FAVOR TEMPS REACHING DEWPTS. MDLS SHOW MINIMAL CONDENSATION PRESS DEFICITS IN LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR FOG/ST TO DEVELOP ESPCLY SRN TIER. BASED ON THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD TRENDS IN PREV FCST WITH S/SW TIER (OAJ/ISO) HAVING BEST SHOT FOR IFR OR WORSE LATE. WHAT FOG/ST DOES FORM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THU WITH VFR REST OF THE DAY WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING LATE MORN AND AFTN. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWER/TSTMS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. PREV DISC...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A FRONT TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FEET. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS WITH SEAS RESPONDING BY BUILDING TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRI THEN STALLING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...THEN FLOW RETURNING S/SW FRI NIGHT AND SAT AOB 15KT. SW CONTINUES SUN...WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-20KT. WEAK LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE MON AS WINDS 10-20KT CONTINUE. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD 2-4FT...LOCALLY UP TO 5FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP NEAR TERM...RF/LEP SHORT TERM...LEP LONG TERM...CQD /SNC AVIATION...RF/CQD MARINE...RF/CQD/LEP

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