Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 290708 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 308 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical Storm Bonnie is forecast to make landfall along the South Carolina coast today, then weaken to a depression tonight. The low will slowly drift northeast near the North Carolina coast Monday through mid week. A frontal boundary will approach the region by next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 230 am Sunday...TS Bonnie will slowly move near the coast of South Carolina today. Mainly SE winds are expected to the north of the system across eastern North Carolina leading to a very moist airmass. Showers have been slow to develop but getting a bit more now and all models show plenty of shra and scattered tsra today. Even with clouds shld see temps climb into the low/mid 80s and that will lead to some instab helping to produce good cvrg of shra/tsra. Based on model and WPC qpf have raised pops to categorical inland this aftn with likely closer to cst. Locally heavy downpours a good bet with precip water values around 2 inches. With SE flow will have to watch for some rotating cells moving onshore today however overall helicity not impressive and think best chcs will be S of region closer to TS. 4 to 5 foot SE swell north of Bonnie will lead to a high threat of rip currents for beaches from Cape Hatteras south with a moderate risk further north.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 am Sunday...Bonnie is forecast to weaken to a depression tonight as it moves little near the coast of South Carolina. This will cont to produce a moist SSE flow of winds over the region with numerous shra and a few tsra expected to cont. Locally heavy downpours will cont as precip water values remain around 2 inches. Will remain mild and muggy with lows upr 60s and lower 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 315 AM Sun... The remnants of Bonnie will drift slowly northeastward near the coast of SC on Monday and then along the NC coast through Thursday. Periods of locally heavy rainfall and increased rip current threat are main impacts we will see from this system. Monday...Deep tropical moisture will continue to feed north northwest on the east side of the tropical system as it sits along the central SC coast. This will lead to bouts of SHRA and Iso to scattered TSRA...and cont likely pops. Given PW`s around 2 inches, which is near 2 S.D. above climo, will see locally heavy rainfall. This then may lead to minor flooding of poor drainage areas and ponding of water on roads. Will be quite uncomfortably muggy with highs around 80. Monday Night and Tuesday...Decent coverage of shra and a few TSRA will continue as the remnant low continues to drift north along the NC/SC coast. Will cont likely to high chance pops with again locally heavy rainfall possible. Best chances for rain appear to be eastern and southern half of the CWA this period along and northeast of the low track. Despite the low near the area, winds will remain rather light with fcst slp to remain above 1000 mb. Little temp change with all the moisture in the area. Highs again around 80-85 and lows in the mid 60s to near 70 along the OBX. Tuesday Night through Thursday...The low will take its time moving up along the NC coast. Model track and timing difference are noted, with almost 24 hours differences between model solutions. Current thinking is the tropical depression [at this point] will be just to our south, moving to the northeast, eventually off the northern OBX coast by Thursday evening (at the latest). This slow progression means continued SHRA and chc TSRA through the period, mainly along the coast. However, if we have any breaks in the clouds, diurnally driven TSRA is possible further inland, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Flooding may continue to be a problem through mid-week for locations that have already received heavy rain for several days in a row. Although the TD will be moving along our coast, the gradient will not lend itself to gusty conditions. Expect winds 5-10kts with slightly higher gusts, especially along the immediate coast. Temps will remain above climo with heights/thicknesses above average with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s to near 70. Friday through Sunday...A frontal system will slowly approach by the weekend with perhaps a better coverage of convection. Southerly flow will increase through the period as a trough anchored in the central CONUS begins to deepen. So expect diurnally drive showers/thunderstorms, especially Saturday into Sunday as the dynamics become better organized. Temperatures in the mid 80s with lows around 70.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Short Term /Through tonight/... As of 1215 am Sunday...With moisture increasing shld see shra gradually spread over the region overnight into Sunday. Will see some lower cigs mainly in MVFR range develop thru daybreak with ocnl sub VFR VSBY as shra cross. Will likely see conditions bounce between VFR and MVFR today into tonight as showers become more numerous with a few TSRA. When heavier shra or TSRA cross could see some IFR as well. Long Term /Mon through Thursday/... As of 315 AM Sun...Remnant tropical low will drift along and near the NC coast through Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers expected thru mid-week with the low in the vicinity. These showers will lead to periods of MVFR/IFR, especially thru Tue. With low levels very moist could also have some light fog/lower stratus develop during the late night/early morning hours as winds expected to be very light. Conditions look to improve Thursday as the TD/sfc low moves off the northern OBX. Southerly flow will develop Friday with an increase in diurnally drive convection.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through tonight/... As of 230 am Sun...SE to SSE winds will cont thru the period with Bonnie remaining well to the south through tonight. Speeds will be mainly 10 to 15 kts however some 15 to 20 kts expected especially over outer waters. These winds shld lead to some 6 to poss 7 foot seas over outer central and southern waters so will cont SCA south of Oregon Inlet. Extended the SCA for southern waters through tonight as looks like 6 foot seas will linger over the outer waters. Long Term /Mon through Thursday/... As of 315 AM Sun...Predominant SE to S winds 10 to 15 kts with some gusts 15 to 20 kts through Monday with weak tropical system S of area. As the weakening low drifts NE near the NC coast Tue, expect to see winds grad become more E then eventually NE behind the slowly exiting system. Uncertainty remains however as to timing of when the low will pass the waters, therefore winds are subject to change. It does appear however that winds will remain sub SCA as system will be quite weak. Wavewatch and SWAN continue to show marginal 6 foot seas outer central and southern waters through Monday night, otherwise mainly 3 to 5 feet. By Tue seas primarily 2-4 feet. The TD/sfc low should be exiting the northern OBX by Thursday will conditions slowly improving, weather wise.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 230 am Sun...With tropical moisture over the area expect bouts of heavy shra and tsra the next few days with rainfall amounts generally between 1 to 3 inches. This heavy rain will likely lead to some localized minor poor drainage flooding and ponding on roads. Widespread or significant flooding is not expected as ground is not overly wet and evapotranspiration near max this time of year.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-103- 104. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...LEP AVIATION...RF/LEP MARINE...RF/LEP HYDROLOGY...MHX

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