Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 032033 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 433 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREA AND UPSTREAM AND GOOD COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS EVENING..THUS CONTINUING LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES. ISOLATED SVR PSBL WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. INITIAL ACTIVITY FIRING ON STALLED FRONT OVER N AND SEA BREEZE SRN INLAND SECTIONS...WITH UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MAINLY WITH SHRT WV. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT MAIN THREAT OF ACTIVITY SPREADING TO COAST LATE EVENING...WITH PCPN DIMINISHING W TO E OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN UPR 70S COAST AND LOW-MID 70S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N. KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID- LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS 21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY. BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS N OF AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SAT...PRODUCING TIGHTEN PRES GRAD ACROSS WATERS. STALLED FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL MOVE N EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND 15-20 KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JBM/HSA MARINE...JBM/HSA

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