Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 041454 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1054 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1050 AM FRI...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. MORNING FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND EXPECT ISOL TO SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND LINGERING SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...WITH INCREASING NE FLOW BEHIND IT. FRONTAL FORCING COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 650 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SC POP OVERNIGHT...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING LOW STRATUS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW. AT THIS TIME THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND LOCATION. ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO 40% COASTAL SECTIONS SAT NIGHT. SAT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH A MULTI LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE (THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA?) WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRODUCING A CYCLONIC AND MOIST ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW WITH PW VALUES AOA 1.75" SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. MODEL QPF FORECASTS GENERALLY INDICATE PCPN LIKELY ALONG COAST EACH PERIOD...WITH COVERAGE MORE SCT INLAND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE POPS MORE THAN 40% AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS PREVIOUS FCST WITH GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN. UPPER PATTERN WILL SEE UPPER LOW RETREATING TO THE GULF COAST AND FILLING AND WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING LEADING TO A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER OFF OF THE COAST THEN EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRY TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BUT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1050 AM FRI...PRED VFR TODAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY...WITH VEERING WINDS BECOMING NE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW STRATUS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW. AT THIS TIME THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH COULD BE IFR. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND IN EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 650 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW W/NW WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS 1-2FT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...WITH INCREASING NE FLOW 10-15KT BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MODERATE NE FLOW 10-20KT. SEAS 1-2FT EARLY TODAY...BUILDING TO 2-4FT TONIGHT HIGHEST NORTH OF OCRACOKE. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED FCST WITH BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF...INDICATING SLIGHTLY STRONGER NE WINDS SAT-SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM N...BUT STILL MAINLY 10-20 KT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING A WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS 15 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW DEPARTS OR DISSIPATES...BUT FCST CONFIDENCE LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE MODERATE POST FRONTAL FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE STEEP 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WITH SOME MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD NEAR TERM...SK/CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...JME/JBM AVIATION...JME/JBM/SK/CQD MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD

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