Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 231041 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 641 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY HOWEVER NE AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN SC ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP LOW TO THE NE. INSOLATION WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND WITH MID 60S COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... MULTI LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FOR THE NORMALLY COOLEST INLAND LOCATIONS TO LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES WITH A LIGHT WIND OFF WARM WATER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA FRIDAY IN BETWEEN DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND A CLIPPER SHORT WAVE DIVING IN FROM NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND 70...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL SC TODAY. NW WINDS AGAIN BECOMING GUSTY (TO 18-20 KTS) SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.
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&& .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUNDS TODAY AND FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SLOW DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCA FOR SEAS GOING INTO FRIDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW MOVING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS FRIDAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR LINGERING SEAS AROUND 6 FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN MONDAY. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN 2-3 FT BY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN SUBSIDE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130- 131-135-156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...BTC SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...BTC/DAG MARINE...BTC/DAG

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