Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 301400 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1000 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... AS OF 10 AM TUE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH FORECAST. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS EARLIER AS CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. STILL EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL SCT STRATO CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80. AS OF 640 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OFF THE GA COAST...WHILE A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS MORNING. SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE THROUGH THE DAY...REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS -RA MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT N/NE FLOW...AND SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10AM. OVERALL VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...850MB TEMPS 13-14C AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS 75-80 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUE...QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED...WITH UPPER LOW AND WEAK FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS BOTH DAYS...BUT ANTICIPATE JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BOTH DAYS. NO BIG CHANGES IN TIMING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODELS DEPICT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR THINGS OUT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EAST...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SUNDAY MORNING BEING THE COOLEST WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER INLAND LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 640 AM TUE...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR WITH AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BETWEEN 12-14Z GIVING WAY TO PRED VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT N/NELY FLOW. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBY TO MVFR/IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 640 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS...AND SEAS 2-4FT. LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH SHORTWAVE. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH TODAY...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 15KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4FT TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN STRONG NORTH ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A POWERFUL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL CONSPIRE TO LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH THE LOCALLY RUN NWPS/SWAN MODEL AND WAVEWATCH SHOW SEAS AT 6 FEET STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY WITH A MODERATE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. WITH A SLACKENING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS WILL FINALLY START TO SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD NEAR TERM...CQD/TL SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/CQD MARINE...CTC/CQD

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