Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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364 FXUS62 KMHX 220938 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 538 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 530 AM FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS CONT THIS MORN BEFORE EXITING TO THE E AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ACROSS ENC TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DRY AND COOL CONDS CONT TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES ACRS THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE MID AND UPR 50S COASTAL SXNS. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES RE-BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST FOR LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS AREA MOST OF PERIOD. SAT-SUN...SFC HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM N SAT...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. PLEASANT TEMPS AND HUMIDITY BOTH DAYS WITH INLAND HIGHS 75-80 SAT AND AROUND 80 SUNDAY WITH OBX 5-10 DEGS COOLER. MON-THU...UPR RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SE AND MID ATLC COAST MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH REST OF WEEK...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE HIGH/LEE THERMAL TROF SFC PATTERN. DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL WED-THU AND THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHC INLAND. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING TEMPS WITH HIGHS INLAND AROUND 90 TUE- THU. HUMIDITY NOT TOO OPPRESSIVE YET WITH APPARENT TEMPS REACHING MID 90S.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... AS OF 530 AM FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL CONT FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABT 14Z THEN EXIT TO THE E. ONCE CLOUDS SCT OUT OR SHIFT OFFSHORE EXPECT VFR CONDS AS HIGH PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DRY/VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH SURFACE FLOW SATURDAY THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 530 AM FRIDAY...WINDS N 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS 4 TO 7 FT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH A SCA UNTIL 15Z THIS MORN. WILL DROP SCA FOR THE SOUNDS AND THE ALLIGATOR RVR AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BLO SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACRS THE WATERS TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY NOON. HIGH PRES SETTLES IN ACRS THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS THEN HIGH PRES REBUILDS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NLY 10-15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT TONIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. ON-GOING N-NE COOL AIR SURGE AT 15-20 KT SAT MORNING WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS 10 KT OR LESS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY SW 10-15 KT MON-TUE AS SFC HIGH EXTENDS OVER AREA FROM OFFSHORE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SEAS WITH LATEST NWPS. HEIGHTS 4-5 FT OVER NRN WATERS SAT MORNING...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 2 FT BY SUNDAY...BUILDING BACK TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150- 152-154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JAC NEAR TERM...JAC SHORT TERM...JAC LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...JAC/JBM MARINE...JAC/JBM

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