Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KMHX 302248 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 648 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front will meander in vicinity of eastern North Carolina through Friday. A stronger front will push in from the northwest Saturday but then stall and return north early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 645 PM Thursday...Based on trends in the radar, todays convection seems to be primarily diurnally driven with the activity decreasing in coverage and intensity during the past hour. Thus would expect a lull in any additional precipitation for the remainder of the evening with the loss of heating. For later tonight, broad cyclonic flow will continue over the eastern CONUS through the near and short term period with a quasi-stationary front remaining just north of the area with a southerly flow continuing across the region overnight helping to maintain a moist and unstable airmass across the region with PW values in excess of 1.5" and Lifted Indexes of -2 to -4. Consensus of the guidance is for redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms along and off the coast late tonight as a robust shortwave approaches from the west drawing ample moisture into the region. Expect seasonably mild temps with lows in the low to mid 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Thursday...A robust shortwave moving through cyclonic flow aloft will transit the region tomorrow with a moist unstable airmass remaining in place and expect scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. The severe potential appears to be a little less than the past couple days as bulk shear will only be around 20-25 kt and greater cloud coverage expected early likely preventing the greatest CAPE from being realized. Still expect a very warm day with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 inland and mid 80s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 PM Thursday...Unsettled weather pattern will continue through early next week as a frontal boundary remains over Eastern NC. Friday night through Monday... The frontal boundary will remain to the north of our area Friday night into early Saturday under a warm moist SW flow. The broad mid-upper trough that has persisted will become more zonal on Saturday as the frontal boundary starts to sink slowly southward on Saturday afternoon as another cold front approaches from the Midwest. The boundary will provide a main focus of deep moisture convergence and weak disturbances moving along the boundary aloft which will help initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday. SPC has the area under a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather as the area is unstable. Forecast soundings is showing SB CAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg with lift index of around -7. Some convection can be strong to severe with the main threat of strong gusty winds. The front remains across the area...therefore will continue high chance/likely pops Sunday into Monday than previously thought with PW values increase to AOA 2 inches. There will be periods heavy rain and flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas as bukfit`s MPE indicates training cells along the boundary. WPC is showing about two inches rain this holiday weekend. Temps are expected to be near normal with highs in the mid 80s to around 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Monday night through Thursday...The latest models differs with the next feature affecting the region. GFS has a strong shortwave moving out from the Midwest Monday night with a low moving over the Middle Atlantic states, while ECMWF is much weaker with the energy and low development. Comparing with the previous GFS run, the developing low is weaken. Went with WPC solution which is more in agreement with ECMWF model. With a sfc trof inland and seabreeze, expect showers and thunderstorm Tuesday and Wednesday each afternoon. Conditions may finally dry out Thursday as the sfc trof axis slide offshore Temps will gradually warm and should be mid to upper 80s along the coast and low 90s inland by mid- week...with overnight lows in the 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Short Term /Through Friday/... As of 645 PM Thursday...Expecting mainly VFR conditions outside scattered showers and thunderstorms which are expected to remain southeast of the TAF sites overnight but then are expected to redevelop over the area Friday afternoon and evening. Exception to this is late tonight as the boundary layer remains marginally moist enough to support patchy fog and low clouds. The aviation guidance and forecast soundings are not really hitting fog hard so would expect mainly a brief period MVFR visibilities at worst after 08Z. There are mixed signals with regards to the potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings so would prefer to represent this threat with a scattered 700 ft deck and continue to monitor. Any fog and or low clouds will mix out rapidly Friday morning. Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 330 PM Thurs...Mainly VFR condition with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly diurnal driven. Brief periods of sub- VFR conditions are possible with heavier down pours, especially Saturday night into Sunday. Patchy fog and stratus each morning as low level moisture will be high under light winds.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Short Term /through Friday/... As of 645 PM Thursday...A quasi-stationary front will remain north of the region through the Friday with S to SW flow 5 to 15 KT expected to continue through Friday morning with seas around 2-4 FT. SW winds are then expected to increase to 10-20 KT Friday afternoon with seas building to 3-5 FT. /Previous discussion/ As of 330 AM Thursday...weak outflow winds from overnight convective activity that moved over northern waters will produce weak north-northeast winds over most of waters early this morning with speeds 10 KT or less. Inland heating and sea breeze push will result in winds becoming south-southeast 10-15 KT this afternoon, with slightly tighter pressure gradient producing south-southwest winds around 15 KT tonight. Seas 2-3 feet this morning will build to 3-4 feet tonight with stronger winds. Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 330 PM Thurs...Winds will remain elevated Friday night 10-20 knots and could see seas building up to 5 feet along the outer periphery of south of Oregon Inlet late Friday into Saturday morning. The front will push southward into the area Saturday and then stall across the NC waters into early next week. Wind directions becomes tricky due to the placement of the frontal boundary. Expect 5-15 knots mainly N/NE behind the front and 10-15 knots ahead of it. Winds generally will be 15 knots or less with seas 2-4 feet with SW winds increasing Tuesday 10-20 knots. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters during each afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME/SK NEAR TERM...JME/SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...JME/BM/LEP MARINE...JME/SK/BM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.