Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 241911 CCA AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 246 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 143 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MAY CONTINUE TO BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... AS OF 146 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THIS WILL TURN WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... AS OF 1235 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/... AS OF 157 PM FRI...NORTHWEST FLOW RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS MAINLY 3-5 FEET WILL START THE PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING TIGHTER GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. FLOW WILL BE WEAK WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE SOUTH...TURNING THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DRY COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CGG NEAR TERM...CGG SHORT TERM...CGG LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...CGG/TL MARINE...CGG/TL

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