Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 240306 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1006 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through Friday. A cold front with limited moisture will move through late Saturday. High pressure will build in Sunday then slide offshore Monday through Wednesday. A cold front will cross late Wednesday night or early Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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As of 945 PM Thursday...adjustments to hourly temp trends as some inland and northern sections have dropped into low-mid 50s with radiational cooling this evening. Rest of forecast on track with more cloud cover and isolated showers along coast overnight while less cloud cover inland will allow patchy fog development. /Previous discussion/ As of 215 PM Thursday...Radar conts to show weak returns lifting onshore with the SE low lvl flow. Some of the high res mdls show some spotty qpf cont near cst so will keep isold shra mention in overnight cst. High clouds shld cont to drift E and with good breaks in clouds expect some patchy fog to develop inland tonight. Lows similar to last night with low/mid 50s most spots ...poss upper 50s beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday...Stacked low will lift NE well to the SE Fri. Mdls show hgts/thicknesses building a bit and mean rh decreasing. With decent amount of sun will have very warm highs in the upr 70s/around 80 inland to lower 70s beaches. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM Thu...Spring-like pattern through the extended with much above climo temps expected before a stronger front moves through by late Saturday. Temps temporarily back down to near climo second half of the weekend into beginning of the work week next week then warming back above avg with increasing rain chances mid week. Friday Night through Saturday Night...A closed low will track NE off the East Coast Fri Night while filling ahead of an upr trf approaching from the W. Increasing TD vals and light E to SE winds bringing threat for patchy fog late Fri night/Sat morning. Lows will be mild as well and remain in the 50s. Upr trf and deep sfc low will track through Quebec on Sat, which will drag a cold front through E NC Sat evening. Global model suite (ECM/GFS/CMC) remains in good agreement with respect to timing and available moisture with this system. The aforementioned low across the W Atlantic will cut off rich GOM moisture advection ahead of this front, so minimal chances of precip with the fropa. However, cannot rule out an isolated shower/tstm late afternoon/early evening, especially across the northern half of the CWA, with strong frontal forcing, 50+ kt bulk shear in place and an EML bringing steep mid level lapse rates greater than 7C/km. Sat looks like the warmest day of the period as low lvl thicknesses rise to between 1380-1390 meters under partly cloudy skies yielding highs around 80 for interior zones which will threaten some record highs. Lows will drop into the 40s Sat night with gusty NW winds developing after fropa with a drier airmass advecting into the region. Sunday through Monday...Front will have swept offshore bringing cooler/drier air courtesy of building high pressure across the region. Highs will be near climo in the low to upper 50s Sunday. Lows drop back down into the 30s by Mon morning with good radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and calm winds. Monday will already begin a warming trend once again as high pres shifts offshore and SW flow sfc and aloft develops. Temps will rise into the 60s on Monday. Monday Night through Thursday...A weak shortwave moving through SW flow aloft brings increasing rain chances Mon night into Tue with a stronger upper tough and sfc cold front approaching from the west continuing to bring rain chances through mid- week. 12z model suite continue to diverge with these systems leading to below confidence in the details. The GFS is generally wetter than the ECMWF through the period and kept sc/low chance pops across the area due to the uncertainty. The GFS has also backed off from dropping a front into the region Tue as well. Added a slt chc of tstms Tue as models indicating weak to moderate instab and shear across the region but again models are not in best agreement with the amount of shear and instab as well. A high shear/low CAPE environment will be in place Wed/Wed evening ahead of the cold front and added a slt chc of tstms this period as well. Guidance continues to indicate further warming Tuesday and Wednesday as heights/thicknesses rise well above climo once again and yield high temps in the 70s most areas. Models in good agreement with a stronger front pushing through the area early Thursday, with cooler air behind it. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short term /Through 00Z Saturday/... As of 630 PM Thursday...Current VFR conditions expected to persist through evening hours as isolated showers moving in along coast will dissipate before reaching TAF sites. Cirrus canopy will not be as thick overnight and some guidance supports increased threat of IFR VSBYs in fog development late tonight. However additional guidance indicates some lower SCU development with possible CIGs around 2K feet as well which would limit fog development closer to coast. Will go with conservative forecast of MVFR VSBYs prevailing all TAF sites overnight and a TEMPO group of IFR at KISO and KPGV where lower CIGs less likely. Will indicate MVFR CIGs for KEWN and KOAJ and VSBYs remaining MVFR there as well. Conditions improving to VFR all sites by 14Z Friday. Long term /Friday Night through Tuesday/... As of 3 PM Thu...Mainly VFR through the extended period as high pressure ridges into E NC from the Atlantic. Exception will be during the overnights/early mornings where patchy/areas of fog will be possible with rising dewpoints and light E to SE winds. Guidance is showing potential of widespread sub-VFR fog developing Sat morning. Isol showers/tstm possible late Sat afternoon/early evening ahead of a cold front, mainly across nrn rtes, which could bring a brief period of sub-vfr conditions. A much drier/cooler air mass builds in Sunday into Monday. This should limit overnight fog threat Sat night into early next week. Moisture increases across rtes Mon night and Tue bringing a threat of showers/isol tstms with sub-VFR conditions possible. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Friday/... As of 1000 PM Thursday...no changes with update. Seas have risen to 6 feet at Diamond Buoy and 30 SE New River buoy, thus SCA on track with seas building through Friday night with persistent onshore flow. /Previuos discussion/ As of 215 PM Thursday...High pres offshore and low pressure to the S will keep flow from the SE at 5 to 15 mph to tonight. As the low lifts NE on Fri winds will become more E and increase to 10 to 15 kts with some gusts 15 to 20 outer waters. Seas will cont to increase as SE swell builds from the low. Seas will reach 5 to 7 ft outer waters tonight then reach 6 to 9 feet later Fri. Have added northern waters to SCA starting mid day Fri. Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/... As of 140 PM Thu...SE swell energy from a distant low pressure system off of the southeast coast will continue to impact the waters Friday night and Saturday, with seas peaking at 6 to 9 ft Friday night and remain elevated 4-7 ft Sat. Winds will be light Friday night and Saturday morning then winds increase to SW 20-25 kt late Sat and Sat evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift to NW 20-30 kt behind the cold front Sat night and early Sunday with winds diminishing to 10 to 15 kt Sun afternoon. Seas will briefly build to 5 to 8 ft Sat night then subside to 3 to 5 ft Sun afternoon. Light winds are expected Sunday night, becoming southerly 10-15 kt Monday. Winds will increase to S 15 to 20 kt Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front with seas building to 4 to 6 ft late.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high temps for Fri 2/24 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 84/1962 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 75/1975 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 81/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 77/1996 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS) Kinston 84/1930 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 86/1982 (KNCA AWOS) Record high temps for Sat 2/25 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 77/2000 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 69/1961 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 81/1962 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 75/1996 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS) Kinston 84/1930 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 75/1996 (KNCA AWOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF/JBM SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...SK/CQD AVIATION...RF/JBM/CQD MARINE...RF/JME/JBM CLIMATE...MHX

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