Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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869 FXUS62 KMHX 300150 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 950 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist through the weekend. A weak boundary will stall over the area tonight then lift back north by the end of the day Saturday. A weak cool front will approach from the northwest early next week then stall near the area by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 945 PM Friday...Weak cold conts to sag S to around Cape Hatteras this evening. Band of showers and storms along the boundary have remained mainly over the Pamlico Sound past couple hours. This convection is starting to weaken as it approaches Ocracoke Island. Radar also shows some weakening convection over eastern S Carolina moving E. Will keep small pop southern tier overnight with bndry in the area with no pop across the north. Will have another warm and muggy night with lows in the 75 to 80 degree range across the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As of 315 PM Friday, the surface trof which has been over the mid state area most of the week will shift closer to the coast Saturday and the weak boundary that moved into the northern CWA will lift back to the north. The chance of a shower or thunderstorm will increase a bit on Saturday into the 30 to 40 percent range. Highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints ranging from the lower to upper 70s across the region will make it feel hot and humid again, but like today, heat indexes will only flirt with the 105 degree mark or higher. The chance of increased clouds and showers and thunderstorms would also serve ti limit the chance of getting heat indexes over 105. Given that, will not issue a heat advisory for Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 PM Friday...Pattern will become increasingly unsettled this weekend into mid week as the mid/upper ridge breaks down and transitions to a broad trough. Conditions will improve late week as high pressure builds in. Saturday Night into Sunday...Mid/Upper level ridge continues to break down as the broad trough over the Tennessee Valley continues to dig south. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary slowly sinks down from the NW, but remains to the north. This will provide better chances for showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be about a degree or two lower then Saturday. Expect highs in the low 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the OBX. Monday through Friday...The broad trough axis will be over NC on Monday, while several shortwaves moving through the flow through mid week. At the sfc, the slow moving cold front will sink down into the forecast area late Monday into Tuesday, then linger across the southern coastal area Wednesday into Thursday. This will lead to an increase of PoPs from scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms, especially for Monday and Tuesday. By Thursday, frontal boundary will remain stalled to the south of the area and models depict it will dissipate late Thursday/Friday as high pressure builds into the area from the New England area. 850 mb temperatures will decrease through the period and combined with increased cloud cover...high temperatures will drop into the upper 80s/low 90s inland to mid 80s along the coast Monday. Tuesday through Thursday, high temps will be a few degrees lower with highs in the upper 80s inland to low/mid 80s along the coast. High temps are expected to slightly increase Friday; with a high in the low 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the coast. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short term /Through Saturday/... As of 630 PM Friday...Most of the time expect VFR however cant rule out some patchy fog late tonight and brief sub VFR Sat aftn with convection. With weak bndry sagging into the region expect much lighter winds over the region tonight. With limited mixing cant rule some patchy fog late especially northern tier behind weak front and will add some MVFR vsbys to KPGV. Over more southern sites will keep fog out for now given uncertainty on how far S boundary will make it. Any fog that does develop tonight will quickly burn off Sat morn. Better coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected Sat aftn with short waves crossing and will add VCTS to all sites starting at 18z. Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/ As of 3 PM Friday...Scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms through mid week and will produce sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions under a SW flow 5-10 knots then shifting to NE after the frontal passage. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight and Sat/... As of 945 PM Friday...Weak boundary is approaching Cape Hatteras and expected to stall over southern sections later tonight. With boundary moving S gradient over southern tier is loosening and shld see the SW winds grad diminish. Light mainly NE to E winds expected north of the front overnight. As boundary washes out or lifts back N Sat will see SW winds return to all waters at 10 to 15 kts. Seas will be 2 to 3 feet northern waters thru the period. Over southern tier 3 to 4 foot seas this evening will subside to mainly 2 to 3 ft Sat. Long Term /Sat Night through Wednesday/... As of 3 PM Friday...SW flow will continue into late Monday as the frontal boundary moves in from the north and reaches the southern waters by Wednesday. This will result in an increase of PoPs from scattered to widespread rain/thunderstorms across the marine zones. Expect, SW flow 10-20 knots and seas 2-5 ft with the highest over the central/southern waters through Monday, then winds will shift NE after the frontal passage. Seas will become 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas however are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSB NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RSB LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...RF/BM MARINE...RF/RSB/BM

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