Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 262117 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 417 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN NC. NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER COOLING AND MODEST SFC HEATING THIS AFTN BUT THINK CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO ADD FORECAST MENTION ATTM. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER WX. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE MORNING AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NW AREAS FROM GREENVILLE AND WILLIAMSTON TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 PM MON...MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THU. GAINING A LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER AND NOT AS STRONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BOTH MODELS PRODUCING VERY LIGHT QPF THURS NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850 MB. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 40-45 BEFORE THE STRONG CAA COMMENCES BUT ONLY EXPECT UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MUCH WETTER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SFC PATTERN...SPECIFICALLY THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THERE ARE IMPLICATIONS OF PTYPE CONCERNS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE BUT AT THIS TIME OPERATIONAL MODELS TRACK THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NC (12Z ECMWF) OR NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC (12Z GFS). && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO START EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS LATE TONIGHT...THE LIGHT SHOWERS...IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW...AROUND 9Z... MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS GUSTY UP TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE TOMORROW AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS FARTHER NE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THURS NIGHT BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR. COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRI AND SAT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND/OR A VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS/THE SOUNDS/AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF THE NC COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 PM MON...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 4-8 FT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130-131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...BTC SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...SK/CQD AVIATION...SK/CQD/BM MARINE...BTC/JME/SK/CQD

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