Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 251406 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1006 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A tropical airmass will linger into Monday as a cold front approaches from the northeast. The front will meander just off the coast through Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday through late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1000 AM Sunday...No significant changes with this update. Majority of precipitation remains offshore with perhaps just a few light light showers or sprinkles along the coast. Maintained current PoP spread with no PoPs over the far northwestern counties by midday. Latest high- resolution HRRR and NSSL WRF models indicate some redevelopment along the sea breeze this afternoon. Stream of deep-layer moisture indicated by water- vapor satellite will keep skies on the cloudy side today, but there should be enough breaks in the clouds to allow high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Sunday...Latest GFS and ECMWF models show ribbon of deeper moisture and omega right along and just off the coast tonight and will keep low chance PoPs over the coastal/Sounds portion of our CWA tonight with no PoPs inland. Numerical guidance indicates some lower dewpoints and slightly cooler low temperature readings tonight behind weak frontal boundary with mid 60s inland ranging to mid 70s Outer Banks. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Sun...Scattered showers expected Monday and Tuesday. Then, cooler and much drier air will spread into Eastern NC Wednesday through late week. Typical summertime pattern re-develops late week and next weekend. Monday through Tuesday...Frontal boundary will linger along the coast through Monday morning, and could see isolated to scattered showers along the coast. A strong mid-level shortwave will move through Virginia and the Carolinas Tuesday, supporting scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Marginal instability but strong shear and much cooler temps aloft, 500mb temps drop to -12/-13C, could see some small hail. Will continue chance pops. Will keep sc thunder mention both days, but think it will be isolated. Low level thickness values and pred N/NE flow support highs in the low/mid 80s Mon and Tue, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Wednesday through Saturday...Strong high pressure will move overhead on Wednesday, and off the coast late week into the weekend. While overhead, this high will provide a somewhat refreshing airmass with lower humidities and cooler temps. Temperatures quickly warm back up however, as southwest winds return on Thursday and highs creep back to the upper 80s/90 degrees late week and the weekend. Low temps for the period will range mostly from the upper 50s/low 60s inland to upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Typical summertime redevelops late week into next weekend, with troughing inland and high pressure offshore. Dry wx will continue through late week, with scattered diurnal convective chances next weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through 12Z Monday/... As of 705 AM Sunday...IFR/LIFR conditions continue at KOAJ/KISO and KPGV early this morning, but with better mixing expected, these conditions should improve to VFR by 14z or so. Anticipate mostly VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF as most of the expected precipitation remains east of the TAF sites although a stray shower or thunderstorm could occur near the sea breeze this afternoon. Numerical guidance and NARRE model does indicate some potential for fog late tonight given light winds and wet ground, so will include a period of MVFR vsbys after 08z tonight. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 3 AM Sun...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Scattered showers and storms may produce brief period of sub-VFR conditions Tuesday. As usual, patchy fog/stratus will be possible most mornings. && .MARINE... Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 1000 AM Sunday...Allowed SCA to expire for central waters as seas at Diamond Buoy are now at 5 feet. Winds should subside to 10 knots or less with seas 2-4 feet by later this afternoon into tonight. Winds will veer to more W/WNW later tonight behind an initial cold front ahead of a stronger front around Tuesday night or so. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 3 AM Sun...Generally benign and pleasant boating conditions expected through the period. Models now showing a stronger surge behind the initial front Monday morning. Increased winds to 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft, but there is the potential for a brief period of 15-20 kt Mon morning. Surface high pressure will build in over the area Tuesday night, crest over the waters Wednesday, moving offshore Thursday. N/NW 5-10 kt Tue, N/NE 5-15 kt Wed, becoming S/SE 5-15 kt Thu, with seas generally 2-3 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095- 098-103-104. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...RSB/CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...CQD/SGK AVIATION...CTC/CQD MARINE...RSB/CTC/CQD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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