Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 201418 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 918 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will pass through the southeast states this weekend. A cold front will move through Tuesday. High pressure will pass through from the west during the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 915 AM Sat...No signif changes planned. Satl shows clr skies over the area and shld remain that way rest of the day. After cool start temps are beginning to warm quickly and shld see lower 60s SW to mid/upper 50s NE...which shld melt most of the remaining snow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... As of 3 am Sat...Clear skies and a light west southwest wind as high builds in. Lows will be in the mid 30s most places, with some upper 30s to lower 40s south coast and Outer Banks. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 AM Saturday...Mild weather is expected through the extended period. A cold front will bring a threat of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly in the morning. Otherwise dry conditions are expected for the extended period. Sunday through Monday...High pressure centered over the region on Sunday will drift offshore Sunday night into Monday as moisture increases ahead of an oncoming cold front. Mild temperatures are expected with highs on Sunday in the lower to mid 60s, then mid to upper 60s for Monday in S/SE flow. The GFS, which is the fastest of the models with regards to arrival of precipitation, keeps the area dry on Monday and will continue to keep precipitation to the west of our CWA Monday afternoon. Tuesday...There is good consensus between the ECWMF and Canadian with timing of precipitation through the area Tuesday morning before exiting the coast during Tuesday afternoon. The ECMWF/Canadian are also a bit wetter than the GFS, indicating perhaps up to one-quarter inch of rain with this system. There is some weak instability indicated during Tuesday with some decent shear/helicity indicated around midday, so have included a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Went with the cooler European and Super Blend guidance indicating highs in the mid 60s, versus the very warm mid 70s indicated by the GFS MOS. PoPs ramp up from chance early Tuesday morning to likely through midday then taper off as precipitation moves offshore Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures return to normal to just below normal behind the front for mid to late week with highs generally in the 50s, with upper 40s northern Outer Banks and nighttime lows in the 30s to lower 40s. Mostly sunny skies expected for the period, before moisture increases and brings in another chance of precipitation by the weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through 06Z Sunday/... As of 7 am Sat...VFR/SKC through the short term. Surface ridge will pass through the southeast states with a very dry airmass, so no fog is forecast. Light WSW winds less than 10 knots. Long Term /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... As of 310 am Saturday...VFR conditions are expected Sunday night into Monday. Increasing moisture ahead of a cold front will lead to scattered showers, starting late Monday night and continuing to around midday Tuesday before the precipitation moves east of the TAF sites. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible given some weak instability and decent low-level shear. Some periods of sub-VFR conditions are Monday night and Tuesday before returning to VFR Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 915 AM Sat...Bumped up winds over outer waters S of Hat where buoys are gusting in the 20 to 25 kt range...likely due to enhanced mixing from the warmer SST. Rest of fcst looks good with WSW winds mainly 10 to 20 kts today. Seas shld build to 5 ft from Hat S due to the gusty winds. Prev disc...Zones look good. No changes needed. West to southwest flow will continue in the short term as high pressure gradually expands into the area from the southwest. Pressure gradient gets temporarily pinched today, with 15-20 knots over the waters from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke into this evening, otherwise 10-15 knots elsewhere. Seas will run 3-5 feet from Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout, with 2-4 feet elsewhere. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 315 AM Saturday...Light NW/W winds under strong high pressure will back to more SE/S on Monday night and increase to 15-20 knots ahead of an oncoming cold front. A short window of Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely Tuesday ahead of the cold front as SW winds of 15-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots are likely with seas building to 4-6 feet, especially south of Oregon Inlet. By Tuesday night and Wednesday behind the front, N winds should drop of to 5-15 knots with seas at 2-4 feet.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...RF/HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/HSA MARINE...RF/CTC/HSA

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