978
AXNT20 KNHC 152117
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Pulsing gale-force winds are
forecast in the Agadir area of the Meteo-France high seas
forecast until 16/00 UTC, and then again from 16/12 UTC to 16/21
UTC. Seas in the 8-11 ft range are possible with these winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France
at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to
05N41W where it becomes diffuse. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 10N and east of 18W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 27W
and 30W, and from 06N to 12N between 35W and 58W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to the central
Gulf near 25N90W to 22N93W where it transitions to a stationary
front that continues to Tamiahua, Mexico. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue across the eastern Gulf
between Spring Hill, Florida and Marco Island this evening in
association with a pre-frontal trough per recent radar and
satellite imagery. Moderate to fresh return flow is east of the
front, with gentle to moderate variable flow west of the front.
Seas are slight to moderate across the entire basin.

For the forecast, the front will lift as a warm front over the
western half of the basin tonight into Thu while it stalls east
of 90W. This will shift the focus of heavy rain and thunderstorms
to the NW Gulf on Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow
will dominate the basin, pulsing to locally strong near the
Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Winds will slightly
weaken during the weekend as the gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, haze
due to agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the
western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered southeast of Bermuda is supporting fresh
to strong easterly winds offshore of central and eastern Honduras,
as well as in the south-central Caribbean, including portions of
the Gulf of Venezuela. Earlier ASCAT scatterometer data captured
both areas. Mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail across
the remainder of the basin, except light and variable in the
southwest Caribbean south of 11N. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range
east of 70W, and in the 5-8 ft range west of 70W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in the southwest Caribbean south of
14N.

For the forecast, strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will
persist through Sun, reaching near gale-force speeds Fri evening
into Sat morning. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these
winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of
Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun evening. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next week.
Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America
continues across some areas of the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
Gale Warning in the East Atlantic Ocean.

Fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate seas are ongoing N
of 29N between the NE Florida offshore waters and 67W as a cold
front approaches from the west. A pre-frontal trough continues to
fire up heavy showers and thunderstorms with frequent lightning
and gusty winds across the central and portions of the south
Florida seaboard as well as the northern Bahamas. A trough, the
western remnants of a cold front, reaches from 23N55W to 19N61W
with scattered showers near it. Otherwise, ridging extends over
the rest of the Southwest North Atlantic offshore waters. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are there, due to the
influence of this high.

In the central Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 31N47W to
the remnant trough near 23N55W. Scattered moderate convection is
along and ahead of the front, north of 25N and west of 38W.
Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are north of 28N
between the front and 43W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1029 mb high pressure north of the area
near 42N33W dominates the waters. Gentle to moderate trades
prevail across the open waters and moderate seas, except fresh to
strong N to NE winds north of 18N between the coast of Africa and
20W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will push off the NE
Florida coast tonight and extend from 31N73W to Freeport Thu
afternoon, from 31N65W to 27N69W Fri afternoon and weaken as it
extends from 31N61W to 28N71W Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds
are forecast ahead of the front through Fri night along with
showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will improve Sat as the
front dissipates. Tranquil conditions are expected the remainder
weekend.

$$
Lewitsky