936
AXNT20 KNHC 170507
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N15W and continues southwestward to 05N25W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N25W to 05N38W and to 05N52W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 09N and west of
44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico,
extending from SW Louisiana to southern Texas. A warm front
extends from 27N86W to SE Louisiana. A large area of heavy
showers and strong thunderstorms is affecting the southern
Mississippi Valley and extending into the northern Gulf of Mexico
waters. The storm complex is being supported by middle to upper
level diffluent flow and moist southern return flow. The
remainder of the basin is dominated by a weak pressure pattern.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong SE
winds in the south-central Gulf waters, especially south of 26N
and between 84W and 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate
to locally fresh SE-S winds are evident in the rest of the
western half of the Gulf, especially west of 90W. Seas in the area
described are also 4-6 ft. Mariners are advised that stronger winds
and higher seas are likely occurring near the more intense
storms. Elsewhere in the basin, light to gentle winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail. Areas of haze and smoke due to
agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America continue across
most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northward and
inland through late Fri. A series of upper-level disturbances
moving from W to E will maintain active weather over the northern
Gulf through most of the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
return flow will dominate the basin, except pulsing to locally
strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche through
Sat night. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as
the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, areas of haze and smoke
due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the
western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a high pressure system north of the
Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in
fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these
waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and
seas of 4-6 ft are found in the south-central Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in
Central America continues across areas of the NW Caribbean while
smoke is reducing the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, a weak and narrow Atlantic ridge extends
westward along 24N into the central Bahamas tonight. The
associated pressure gradient is supporting fresh to strong winds
in the Gulf of Honduras and in the south central Caribbean. Strong
winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist through Sun, reaching
near gale- force Fri evening into Sat morning and again Sat night.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of
Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun evening. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next week.
Meanwhile, smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America
continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and is
reducing the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N69W and
continues southwestward to the Treasure Coast of Florida near
27N80W. A few showers are seen on satellite imagery ahead of the
boundary, especially north of 28N. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds
and seas of 5-8 ft are found ahead of the front to 61W and north
of 26N. A weak high pressure pattern dominates the remainder of
the western Atlantic, west of 55W, supporting light to locally
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

A broad ridge over the far north Atlantic is the most prominant
feature in the central and eastern Atlantic, sustaining moderate
to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N and west of
35W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are noted off the coast of
Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
31N68W to 27N76W late tonight, then begin to weaken as it reaches
from near 31N65W to 26N74W Fri night, from near 31N63W to 26N70W
early Sat afternoon and shift east of 55W by early Sun evening.
Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front will continue
through Fri afternoon, then become fresh speeds Fri night
diminishing Sat afternoon. Active weather is expected to continue
ahead of the front. Conditions will improve Fri night into Sat as
the front dissipates. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate
seas are expected through Sun as weak high pressure extends E to
W along 24N-25N.

$$
Delgado