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000
FXUS64 KMOB 252344
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
644 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the evening
hours. Fog is expected to develop overnight tonight, mainly north
of I-10. Some localized patches of dense fog may be possible
primarily over interior portions of south central Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle. Fog will dissipate after sunrise and
VFR conditions will return for the remainder of the day tomorrow.
Light and variable winds tonight will become southeasterly and
increase to around 10 to 15 knots late tomorrow morning. Winds
during the afternoon hours could gust as high as 25 knots in
spots. /96

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Upper ridging will slowly build eastward during the overnight
hours as the axis of an upper level trough swings into the Plains.
At the surface, southerly flow will persist, filtering in warm and
moist air. Current conditions across the forecast area are on the
warm side, as temps have risen into the lower to mid 80s under
partly cloudy skies. Skies will remain partly cloudy over the
most part tonight and winds are expected to become calm, leading
to radiational cooling for our overnight hours. This will allow
temps to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak. The
upper ridge will strengthen a bit on Friday morning before it
begins to exit the area as the trough to our west slides eastward.
Seasonably warm temperatures are expected again on Friday, as
highs warm into the lower to mid 80s. /73

SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Dry and seasonably warm conditions will persist through the
weekend as upper ridging and surface high pressure maintain their
hold on the sensible weather pattern. The aforementioned trough
to our west will pivot northward before it becomes absorbed in the
ridging aloft. Another closed low and trough will then swing into
the Plains again and the upper ridge will strengthen over the
southeast. Temps through the weekend will rise into the lower 80s
during the day and fall into the lower to mid 60s during the
overnight hours.

The closed low over the plains will open as it moves to the
northeast at the start of the upcoming work week. The ridge will
maintain its hold through at least Monday, with another dry and
seasonal day is on tap. The upper ridge will continue to push to
the east through the day on Tuesday, as the weakening trough moves
into the Mississippi Valley. The trough will continue to weaken
through the day and flow aloft will become more zonal by Tuesday
afternoon. There may be enough forcing to lend isolated
thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday, with the better chances
during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. Confidence is not overly
high on the coverage and for now will cap PoPs to 30%. Another
ridge begins to build eastward on Wednesday, with dry conditions
expected to return. /73

MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Onshore flow will persist and then strengthen late Friday and
especially this weekend. Winds may become sustained between 15-25
kt over the marine area through much of the weekend. Seas may
build to 5-8 ft over the Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday.
Small Craft Advisories will likely become necessary this weekend.
/73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      62  82  65  81  66  80  65  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   64  78  67  78  68  78  67  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      66  77  68  78  68  78  68  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   59  86  61  84  61  84  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  60  86  63  84  63  83  61  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  30
Camden      59  85  63  83  62  83  60  84 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Crestview   58  84  60  84  61  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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