Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 270957
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
457 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A FAIRLY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TODAY TO NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DURING THE SAME PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL TAKE HOLD OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES AND THE
GULF COAST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE CLEARING LINE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...NEARING MCCOMB AND
BATON ROUGE AS OF 4 AM. CLEARING WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR SURGES IN.
AFTER A COOL START WITH AN ADDED CHILL FROM THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...IT WILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY LATE MORNING UNDER THE WARM
LATE MARCH SUN WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...EXCEPT MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL LEAVE LIGHTER AND MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
NORTH GULF COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK UP IN THE 70S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION EARLY MONDAY AND THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION
ON MONDAY. THE FORCING WILL BE RATHER WEAK OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.

A LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...HOWEVER
THERE MAY BE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T/STORMS. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SLOWEST PUSHING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND KEEPING LOW END CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND SUNSET AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KNEW. THERE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THRU THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS CLOUDS SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST THIS MORNING.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND SPEEDS ARE WELL IN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. SFC HIGH WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WHICH WILL BE WEAKENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AIDE IN RELAXING THE WINDS. ATTM...IT
APPEARS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA AROUND MID
MORNING. SO HAVE THE ADVISORY EXPIRING THEN. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST A BIT LONGER OFFSHORE...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL ROTATE
BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAIN SITUATED EAST OF THE
AREA.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
             FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  41  68  49 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  69  45  71  53 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  68  43  67  49 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  67  51  69  57 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  68  45  65  49 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  67  42  65  45 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$



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