Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLIX 010853
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A QUIET RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...HOWEVER
THAT SHOULD COME TO AN END AT SOME POINT THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS WILL STALL A FRONT OVER
OUR AREA AND THIS WILL GIVE US A GOOD SHOT OF RAINFALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CONVECTION LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING IS STRUGGLING TO
GET GOING AS THE MOIST AIR IS TAKING A LITTLE BIT LONGER TO GET IN
HERE AND REALLY HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE WANT TO BRING IN DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER ON THIS MORNING. WILL LEAN WITH
THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS AS THEY WERE PRETTY GOOD YESTERDAY. WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 FOR TODAY.

ONE THING TO POINT OUT FOR TODAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...STORM MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
MOST THE TIME BEING LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND A STALLED FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED OVER THE AREA WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
CAUSE SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE IT
COULD BE THE WETTEST DAY WITH LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND ONWARD. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO CUTOFF MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULD
LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO 25 PERCENT OR LESS. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS
THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS TO AROUND 3KFT AND VSBYS 3-5SM TSRA
MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-23Z. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA HUGGING THE NORTH GULF COAST...WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND SEAS TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY LESS THAN 2 FEET.
A PERIOD OF INCREASED SWELL PERIOD AND AN ESTABLISHED SWELL TRAIN MAY
DEVELOP BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY STATE FLOW THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL POSSIBLY COUPLED WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM
T.S. BERTHA ONCE ALIGNED ABEAM OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  70  89  70 /  60  40  50  40
BTR  87  72  90  71 /  60  40  50  40
ASD  89  71  90  71 /  40  40  50  40
MSY  89  75  90  75 /  50  40  40  40
GPT  89  74  91  75 /  30  40  50  40
PQL  88  70  89  71 /  30  40  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.