Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 282113
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A VERY ACTIVE BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN EVENT
THIS MORNING THINGS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN. THAT SAID
THERE IS STILL A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
NEW ORLEANS AND SOUTH OF BATON ROUGE. RADAR ESTIMATES AN AREA OF 6
TO ALMOST 12 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF HANCOCK AND
ESPECIALLY HARRISON COUNTY. THIS LED TO NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING
ISSUES IN THOSE AREAS. OUTSIDE OF COASTAL MS RAIN RANGED FROM NEAR
AN INCH TO 5 INCHES MAINLY AROUND THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES.

ON LAST GASP OF RAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE WE SEE ABOUT A 36 HR DRY
SPELL. THE BNDRY THAT WAS THE PROTAGONIST FOR THIS MORNINGS RAIN
IS STILL SITTING OVER THE AREA BUT WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SHRA AND TSRA ALONG THE BNDRY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVNG HRS AND MAINLY ALONG THE 10/12 CORRIDORS IN SELA.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE EVNG AND OVERNIGHT HRS MID LVL RIDGING
WILL BUILD AS THE WRN CONUS L/W TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW
AND 4 CORNERS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR AREAS OF MODERATE TO DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL
MS WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FELL.

TOMORROW WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. RIDGING OVER THE SERN CONUS
AND THE MS VALLEYS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
STRETCH FROM THE NERN GULF AND TO THE NNW THROUGH THE TN
VALLEYS...INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND ALL THE WAY INTO CNTRL
CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFIED REX BLOCK AND THUS PUTTING
THE REGION UNDER SOLID SWRLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE RAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

HEADING INTO SAT THE AREA SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT CLOUDS
WILL START TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE AFTN
AND EVNG HRS CONVECTION THAT WILL FIRE WEST OF THE REGION MAY PUSH
INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A WET PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE BEGINNING OVERNIGHT SAT AND LIKELY
THROUGH TUE. THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SUN BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN BROAD LIFT...DEEP
MOISTURE...AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA SUN. TIMING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANY
IMPULSE THAT MOVES THROUGH. AS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE...NOT A LOT OF
KINEMATICS TO WORK WITH BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
COULD LEAD TO A FEW STORMS OVERACHIEVING.

HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK THINGS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WET SIDE. MON MAY NOT BE TOO BAD WITH JUST LIGHT RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE FAR GREATER FORCING AND EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE FRONT INTO
THE GULF. OVERALL WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE.

HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK IT LOOKS LIKE WE
CAN ENJOY SOME VERY PLEASANT EARLY MAY WEATHER. L/W TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST PUTTING THE REGION UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT
AND THIS WILL DRIVE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AS A BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE SEEING MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AN MAY HAVE TO AMEND TAFS IF
STORMS THREATEN TERMINALS. EXPECT CIGS TO FALL SOME OVERNIGHT TO
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY. 13/MH


&&

.MARINE...WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT/LOW
FOR AN ADDITIONAL 12 HOURS BEFORE THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS. LIKELY TO RENEW
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WINDS/WAVES TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THOUGH. THE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  87  70  82 /  10  10  10  30
BTR  71  87  72  83 /  20  10  20  40
ASD  71  85  71  84 /  20  10  10  20
MSY  73  86  72  83 /  20  10  10  20
GPT  73  83  72  82 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  70  84  70  82 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ040-058-
     060>064-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ080-081.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

CAB



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