Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLIX 050853
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/

.LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  91  73 /  60  30  20  10
BTR  88  74  92  74 /  40  10  10  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  50  20  20  10
MSY  88  76  91  77 /  50  20  20  10
GPT  86  76  87  77 /  50  30  20  10
PQL  87  72  89  74 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.