Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 300913
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISSCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND IS
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE MORE
SEASONABLE UNTIL THE BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR ON TOMORROW AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING OF COLD AIR. THIS AIR WILL
ORIGINATE FROM CANADA AND WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. AN EAST COAST SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD ALSO HELP DRAW THAT COLDER AIR DEEPER INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS AIR WILL BE
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. IF YOU LOOK A THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED JET STRUCTURE THAT TAPS WELL INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND
THE WIND STREAMLINES/TRAJECTORY TAPPING INTO THAT NORTHERN
CANADIAN AIR HEADING DUE SOUTH CANADA...THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
GOOD SETUP FOR SOME POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST...BASICALLY THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS
A WHOLE. FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD FEEL SOME OF THE COLD AIR BUT THE
COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD COME ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO COME IN COLDER. EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF
THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT. I HAVE STAYED JUST
ABOVE THE EUROMOS AND UNDERCUT THE IN HOUSE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE...WITH THAT BEING SAID THAT LEAVES THE TEMPERATURES NORTH
OF THE LAKE RIGHT AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY MORNING.
NOW...IF WE ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S...IF WINDS STAY UP
WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST UPDATES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE. BIGGEST RISE IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT A
GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KNEW THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SCS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST
OF THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD RELAX BY MIDDAY.
MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI/SAT AS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY NOW AND MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR FRI
AFTN THROUGH MUCH OF SAT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED NEAR THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD ON MON...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  47  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  76  50  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  75  46  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  55  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  76  48  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  76  43  75  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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