Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 011310
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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