Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 250839
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
339 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Beautiful conditions to last at least one more day. Warming will
begin before the muggies move back over the area. Friday will be
the transition day as temps will warm to around 90. But it will
remain rather dry through the day as dew pt temps will continue to
be in the low to mid 60s until Friday evening when southerly
winds will begin to bring the warm muggy conditions back. Everyone
will retire Friday evening with rather nice conditions and wake
up Saturday morning to dew pt temps back in the low to mid 70s
which will be noticeable. These conditions look to persist
through the majority of next week if not longer.

A cold front will move south and stall near the coast late Monday.
The northern portion of the area should see rain chances increase
Sunday ahead of the front. But Monday, the entire area should see
sh/ts development with the exception of coastal sections from
Terrebonne to StBernard Parish. The battle ground of Monday`s
activity will be where the frontal induced thunderstorm outflows
come in contact with the sea breeze which should be mainly over
the northshore areas and southern Mississippi. The coastal areas
should observe subsident conditions behind the sea breeze that
moves well inland which would tend to suppress convective
initiation for those areas. Once the front stalls, some weak jet
support will keep sh/ts in the fcast Monday night as well. The
trough that is left along the coast will remain a focus for sh/ts
development helped along by the daily collision of a sea breeze.
This diurnally driven cycle should last through Friday.

As far as severity of weather is concerned, this may have to be
solved on a daily basis. Basically, it looks like a normal summer
pattern setting up with a better than normal scattering of sh/ts
daily with one or two possibly breaking that severe barrier. But
the best chance of receiving a severe thunderstorm could be Sunday
and Monday.

.LONG TERM...
After Friday, the old trough boundary looks to possibly lift back
toward the northeast. If this occurs, it would take the sh/ts
percentages down but cause the hot muggy conditions to be
maintained to a slightly higher degree by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all of the terminals through the
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will settle over the area today allowing the gradient
flow over the Gulf waters to ease through the morning hours.  Expect
to see winds shift from a westerly component at 10 to 15 knots to a
more southwest component at 5 knots or less by this afternoon as the
surface ridge moves directly over the coastal waters.  As the high
shifts to the east tonight, winds will turn southerly and increase
to 10 to 15 knots.  Seas will also decrease from 3 to 5 feet this
morning to 2 to 4 feet by the evening hours.  High pressure will
remain parked over the eastern Gulf through the weekend, and expect
to see the southerly flow to 10 to 15 knots persist.  A weak frontal
boundary could slip into the area by next Monday.  Winds could
decrease to 10 knots or less and turn more variable with the front
in the vicinity.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...Blue.
DEPLOYED...None.
ACTIVATION...None.
ACTIVITIES...Monitoring Mississippi River flooding

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  62  90  69 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  83  64  90  72 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  83  66  89  73 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  83  68  90  75 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  81  69  87  74 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  82  64  86  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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