Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 291252
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
752 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIR THIS MORNING. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE IS AT 19.3C WITH THE
925MB TEMPERATURE AT 24.7C. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE COLUMN
IS 1.97 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH MEAN STORM MOTION FROM
72 AT ONLY 2 KNOTS AND HIGH PW VALUES...SHOULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS. NOW...MUCH DRIER AIR EXISTS ABOVE 12000 FEET
AND THIS CONTRIBUTES TO THE 1340 J/KG DOWNDRAFT CAPE. THAT
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAIL THREAT IS
REALLY LIMITED WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL QUITE HIGH NEAR 17500
FEET. WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 2800 FEET...THEN
ATTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AROUND 4200 FEET THROUGH THE
TROPOPAUSE. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 31 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 46200
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THERE WERE NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS
MORNING. THE BALLOON ATTAINED A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND DURING ITS 103 MINUTE ASCENT BURSTING OVER LAKE MAUREPAS 43
MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SH/TS SHOULD FIRE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND
MOVE WSW. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS MAY BE AT A HIGH
FREQUENCY. AS SHOULD ALWAYS BE THE CASE...WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH...MOVE INDOORS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS MAY BE THE CATALYST FOR AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF SEVERE TS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER FINE TUNE THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

LONG TERM...
THE FINALLY DEPARTING STACKED HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
ALLOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO SLOWLLY FILL BEHIND IT CAUSING THE
PATTERN OF SH/TS THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY TO OCCUR ON A DAILY BASIS
INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGPT...KMSY...
KNEW...KASD AND KHUM. 11

MARINE... LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  75  94  75 /  30  30  50  30
BTR  96  76  96  76 /  30  30  40  50
ASD  96  77  95  78 /  40  30  40  50
MSY  94  79  92  81 /  40  30  40  50
GPT  95  78  90  79 /  40  40  50  50
PQL  95  77  92  77 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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