Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 011127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
527 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ONE SURFACE TROUGH HAS EXITED THE CWA...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TODAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR PROCEEDS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.

THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW EVERYTHING SHAKES OUT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAK OF 150+ KTS TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT 500 MB...THE INITIAL BAND OF
ENERGY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH...QUICKLY INTERACTING WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE A BAND OF 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SO OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF FORCING.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL SET UP. THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP MOST SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA...WHEREAS THE GEM/NAM HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER NORTH
IN THE LATEST RUNS. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW...AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT PIERRE TO REDFIELD TO WHEATON. THERE
MAY ALSO BE AN INITIAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE PIERRE AREA
BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE ADVECTION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0.5 KM
WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
SO INTRODUCED THAT WORDING INTO THE FORECAST. THE LOCAL BSII IS
GENERATING VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN
END TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE LONG TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD. BUT THAT COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS
SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEEKS END AS A LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM BELOW TO
PERHAPS EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND PERHAPS SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK






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