Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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221 FXUS63 KABR 141745 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1245 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation will develop early today across central South Dakota, then will spread east later today and tonight, lingering across the east on Wednesday. Precipitation chances range between 40 and 70 percent. - Precipitation returns Thursday afternoon and evening (15-40% chance). - Temperatures to remain seasonal for next several days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 1029 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Made a few adjustments to PoPs across central SD based on recent radar trends, which show an area of rain showers across north central SD. Still expecting additional development over western/central SD later this afternoon, but with some question in areal coverage and placement. Best instability sets up over southwest into south central SD, so perhaps a few stronger storms nearing or making its way into the southwest CWA late this afternoon into the evening. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Weak upper level ridging will remain over much of the area today ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. The trough will slowly track across all but the far eastern CWA by late Wednesday afternoon, bringing some weak energy tonight, then a more organized band of energy across the east on Wednesday. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will reach the western Dakotas early this morning, with its associated frontal boundary reaching central South Dakota by late this afternoon. Warm air advection ahead of the boundary will allow for much of the area to warm nicely today. The boundary will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity, starting this morning across north central South Dakota, then spreading eastward this afternoon and tonight. The boundary will be slow to exit the area, so expect to see precipitation linger over the eastern CWA through the day Wednesday. The best chance for some stronger, to possibly severe, storms will be this afternoon across south central South Dakota where 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30 to 35 knots of bulk shear set up. This area has been highlighted with a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Will see 30 to 40 knots of bulk shear across the east Wednesday afternoon, but instability will be minimal, so not expecting severe weather during that time period. Precipitation amounts are tricky due to the potential for higher amounts with any convection that develops, but most areas could see up to one quarter inch or so by the end of the day Wednesday. High temperatures today will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 The long term portion of the forecast will feature an active weather pattern with several chances for showers and thunderstorms. The period begins on Wednesday night with one storm system departing the region to the east and another storm system approaching the region from the west. The storm system will progress across the Northern Plains on Thursday with the majority of the pcpn occurring in North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A good portion of this CWA will have a 20 to 40% chance for pcpn. Conditions may dry out and warm up on Friday with highs in the 70s and low 80s. Additional low pressure systems may track across the region Friday night and through the weekend. While models are showing a more active pattern, there are disagreements with timing and placement, which causes a low forecast confidence. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail to start the TAF period, with MVFR CIGs forecast to move in late in the period as a storm system moves through. There is some potential for IFR CIGs also during the day Wednesday but will take a closer look at this for the 00Z TAFs. -SHRA/SHRA and -TSRA/TSRA also expected to affect the region through the period as this storm system moves through. Potential for MVFR VSBY in areas of heavier precipitation. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...TMT