Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 300006 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
706 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
EAST NOW...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A STORM SYSTEM
PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE
AREA. TEMPS AT 925 MB SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS...WHICH
IS NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS COULD RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE MAYBE NEEDED AS
RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO BE WARMER...MIXING WINDS ARE
RATHER LIMITED EXCEPT ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY. A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE MAYBE NEEDED AS RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS TEMPERATURES. THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN SHOULD FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THAT RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE
ROCKIES/FAR WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEKEND. A FAIRLY
DECENT FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL PROBABLY COME THROUGH DRY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN LIKELY TO BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD SETTLE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THAT REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADED HIGHER
AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN





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