Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 011757 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1257 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF
JONES/LYMAN COUNTIES. KEPT SOME POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES
OF THESE COUNTIES. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A COUPLE OF VERY ISOLATED
STORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEASTERN SD.
TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IN THE HOURLY GRIDS AS THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE LONG LIVED OR WIDESPREAD. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WAA ACCAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AM.
BOTH AREAS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. THUS...STORMS NEAR JONES/LYMAN
WILL MOVE INTO NE...WHILE SHOWERS OVER KBIS/KMBG WILL LINGER NEAR
KABR BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FAST FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN
SD...WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH CAM SOLUTIONS VARY ON HOW
FAR EAST AND SOUTH STORMS FORM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS NOT REALLY IMPROVED. NAM MLCAPE VALUES ARE
IN MY OPINION A TAD EXCESSIVE AT 4000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
REASONABLE AROUND 2000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SIMILAR AND TYPICAL
OF NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH 0-6KT SHEAR AROUND 40KTS. PROFILES SUPPORT
A HAIL/WIND THREAT BEFORE TRACKING INTO FSD CWA.

THE DRY LINE WILL GENERATE WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEP MIXING TODAY...AS
FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH VERY LOW
HUMIDITY...EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST WITH UPPER 80S PREDICTED. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION. THAT
INVERSION MIXES OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY AM FOR A RAPID JUMP IN
TEMPERATURES JUST BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE OUT PERIODS. POPS ARE STILL SMEARED
ACROSS THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROGS HAVE RETURNED TO BOTH BEING NOTABLY
COOL BY WEEK`S END...WITH WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLD/WDLY SCT -SHRA/SHRA OR -TSRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THERES A SMALL CHANCE
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT KABR AND KATY BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LOW COVERAGE OF STORMS. LEFT OUT OF TAFS
FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE CAN
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF ANY TSRA AFFECT
KABR/KATY WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BRING CIGS AND/OR VSBY INTO MVFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TMT


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