Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 242359
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
759 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north northeast bringing dry
weather conditions for this evening into Tuesday night. Unsettled
weather returns by mid-late week with additional rain likely.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Quiet wx areawide this afternoon. High pressure continues to build
over Quebec, extending S/SE into the Great Lakes region. Pressure
gradient remains compressed, especially across SE parts of the FA.
This is allowing for gusty N/NNE winds to continue along the coast
and could still see some 30-35 mph gusts over the next few hrs. Also
seeing some stratocumulus streaming off the ocean in NE NC. These
should dissipate near or just after sunset. Temps are in the upper
40s to around 50 and highs will likely top off a few degrees higher
in the next couple hrs.

High pressure builds further down into the region tonight. This will
allow winds to turn noticeably lighter inland. Still remaining
breezy along the coast, however. Main focus for tonight is how far
into NE NC freezing temps get (where the growing season has begun).
Still seeing some discrepancies in the guidance w/ the deterministic
models higher than the statistical aids. Either way, think the 32 F
isotherm penetrates into at least Northampton (NC) and wrn Hertford
county. Headline-wise, have continued the freeze warning for
Northampton and extended it into Hertford. Have a frost advisory for
Bertie and Gates county where temps dip to ~33 F, though it is
questionable how much frost will be able to form with winds
remaining light (but not calm). Further N/NW, lows will be in the
upper 20s and low 30s. Along the bay and ocean, winds keep temps in
the upper 30s-low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

On Monday, sfc low pressure meanders near Bermuda with a co-located
upper low. Well to our W, vigorous sfc low ejects from the lee of
Rockies into the Midwest states. The local area remains in between
these features with high pressure holding on. Remaining mostly sunny
with some increase in high clouds late across the W. Highs will be
warmer as 850 mb temps and upper heights build across the ern CONUS.
Current fcst has temps around 60 W of the Chesapeake Bay with mid-
upper 50s near the coast where onshore flow continues. Overnight
lows will still be chilly, but not as cold, with upper 30s-low 40s E
to low-mid 30s inland. Expecting an increase in low clouds late
along the coast as the offshore low advects a maritime air mass
towards the area.

The CONUS low moves further NE into Tuesday, eventually occluding
over the upper Midwest. Associated cold front extends S to the Gulf
Coast (where tstms are likely). This cold front slowly moves E later
Tue into early Wed. Moisture return initially is limited as the
upper feature becomes well displaced to our N. Therefore,
expecting most of the area to stay dry through Tuesday night.
High temps Tue in the mid-upper 50s E to the low-mid 60s well
inland. Skies will be mostly cloudy along the coast w/ partly
sunny conditions inland. Lows Tue night in the low-mid 40s. The
front becomes ill-defined in the midweek period as the upper
flow becomes parallel to the front. Models continue to show some
light QPF as the front basically stalls over the FA. Have PoPs
slowly increasing from W to E Wed morning through Wed afternoon.
Current rainfall forecast for this initial wave Wed is
generally up to 0.50" across the W/SW with only a tenth or so
elsewhere. Highs Wed could show a lot of variation across the FA
as rain is more likely W of I-95. Highs across the SE could
reach the upper 60s while 50s linger across the W/NW. Lows in
the 40s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

More widespread rainfall is expected Thursday as a potent srn stream
disturbance induces low pressure formation along the prior frontal
boundary (just off the Carolina coast). This scenario would push
another batch of moderate-locally heavy rainfall N into the area.
PoPs continue to increase from the NBM and have introduced a wide
swath of categorical PoPs across the ern half of the area for
Thursday morning and afternoon. Despite run-to-run variability in
the deterministic guidance, there remains a robust QPF signal in the
GEFS, GEPS (Canadian), and EPS. The GEFS remains more N than the
EPS, painting the highest totals across central VA (vs across nrn/NE
NC in the EPS). Still, they both show increased probabilities of 1-
2"+ of rain. Given the area just saw 1-3" of rain, any additional
rainfall in the amount of inches could lead to some hydrological
issues. Because of this, WPC has a large marginal risk ERO across
the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic later Wed into Thu (with them
mentioning a potential upgrade to slight somewhere once
confidence increases). It also could become quite breezy yet
again along the coast, though this is heavily dependent on the
strength of the low. Thursday will also be cooler with the rain.

The low departs offshore Friday with high pressure building in from
the SW. Therefore, quiet wx is expected heading into the holiday
weekend. Blended/ensemble guidance favors increasing temperatures
for Fri and Sat with 60s and 70s possible, respectively. Overnight
lows generally remain above freezing through the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites from this evening
into Mon evening, as high pressure builds in from the NNE.
Otherwise, NNE winds will remain strong through the period,
esply at ORF/ECG and somewhat breezy at SBY/PHF (during Mon).
Mainly SKC or SCT CI through the period.

Onshore flow and potential cloudiness (with lower CIGs) will be
likely late Mon night through most of Tue. Additional rain
chances will then be possible late Tue night into Thu night,
with degraded flight conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

A strong area of surface high pressure centered just south of
Hudson`s Bay continues to push southward along the eastern
seaboard through the Mid-Atlantic states. Meanwhile an area of
low pressure continues to develop along the trailing cold that
moved through the area on Saturday. This area of low pressure is
forecast to deep significantly over the next few days about
halfway between the US coast and Bermuda. This will set the
stage for a strong persistent NE flow between the two weather
systems from today through midweek, before another frontal
system arrives on Wednesday. With the persistent NE flow of 20 -
25 kt over the coastal waters and 15 to 20 kts over the Bay,
expect significant waves of 8 - 12 ft to continue to push
toward the coast. This will lead to high surf along the coast.

So with this forecast update have adjusted headlines to drop
Gales for all but the southern two coastal zones as winds are
coming down below Gale levels but should persist for all put the
rivers above SCA levels. This should linger through Monday
afternoon and perhaps into Monday night before the winds begin
to weaken as the next front approaches from the west and the
area of High pressure continues to slide eastward into the
Canadian Maritimes allowing the pressure gradient to relax. But
the seas will remain up for a much longer period so have already
adjusted the northern coastal waters SCA through early Tuesday
morning and they will likely need to be extended further.

The next front arrives on Wednesday but stalls over the area at
the upper level jet lifts through the Great Lakes into the
Northeastern US. This will briefly allow the winds to relax, but
another wave of low pressure is expected to form along the front
and lift into the Mid-Atlantic States, providing at least SCA
winds and possibly a brief period of gales.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 500 AM EDT Sunday...

A blow out tide (up to 1 ft below normal) will occur along the
Ches Bay side of the lower MD Eastern shore during low tide
later this morning. Otherwise, water levels will begin to slowly
increase over the next 48 hrs as high pressure to our north
interacts with broad low pressure well offshore to cause a
prolonged period of onshore (E-NE) flow and elevated seas
nearshore. This combination of increased winds and elevated seas
will not allow water to flow out of the mouth of the Ches Bay
as efficiently and over time this water will start to back up
into the middle and upper Bay. So, not only will some minor to
moderate coastal flooding be possible along the Atlantic coast
from Ocean City, MD to Currituck, NC starting today, but minor
to locally moderate coastal flooding will be possible up the
Ches Bay to Cambridge and Bishops Head, MD starting Monday night
and then continuing for all of the local waters through Tuesday
and possibly Wednesday. Locations across the lower Ches Bay,
the lower James River, and the southern coastal waters from VA
Beach to the northern OBX will have the best chance of reaching
moderate coastal flooding thresholds.

Due to tidal anomalies already increasing rapidly this morning
from about Lynnhaven around to VA Beach and south to Currituck
(given the strong NE winds and building waves/seas), have issued
a Coastal Flood Advisory starting with this morning`s high tide
cycle and continuing through this evening`s high tide cycle.
Additionally, have issued a Coastal Flood Statement for
Norfolk/Portsmouth (namely from Sewells Pt to Money Pt) due to
water levels coming close to minor flood thresholds with this
morning`s high tide cycle. If tidal anomalies continue to trend
as expected, then coastal flood advisories will be necessary
for these same areas for this evening`s high tide cycle and
beyond.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for
     NCZ012-013.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for
     NCZ014-030.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098>100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     VAZ093-095>097.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098-100.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for VAZ098-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-650-652-
     654.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ESS/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ


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