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000
FXUS63 KARX 010923
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
323 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES. 01.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALED 4 TO 5 INCHES
IN OSAGE AND 3 TO 4 INCHES IN DECORAH. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE
I-90 CORRIDOR FROM ROCHESTER TO LA CROSSE...1 TO 2 INCHES IS
RELATIVELY COMMON. LATEST RAP SHOWS A MODEST BAND OF 850 HPA
FRONTOGENESIS RE-DEVELOPING ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS LOWER LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH INCREASING
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE 500 TO 300 HPA LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING CANADIAN TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 6-12 MORE HOURS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST REPORTS...MODEL/COBB DATA AND RADAR TRENDS PROVIDE ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO JUSTIFY SOME CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES. WILL EXTEND
THE WINTER STORM WARNING A TIER OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD FROM
MITCHELL TO CRAWFORD WHERE 6 TO 9 INCHES STORM TOTAL SNOW WILL
FALL. TO THE NORTH...WILL EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM OLMSTED TO JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES
WHERE 3 TO 5 TOTAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR BOTH AREAS...THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA GIVEN 30 TO 35
KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. TRAVEL WILL REMAIN
DIFFICULT IF NOT HAZARDOUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO NOTHING NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 10 GIVEN VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN WI/MN WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT
OF THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE
TEENS...BUT WITH A STIFF NORTHERLY WIND...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING AIR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW ZERO. NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW EARLY FEBRUARY NORMALS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S AND LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO.

AFTER A DRY MONDAY...SNOW CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID-WEEK AND THEN AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE RESPONSIBLE SHORT-WAVES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ARE AVERAGE AT BEST. GIVEN OVERALL DRIER AIR PARCEL
SOURCE REGION...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK APPEAR TO BE
RELATIVELY MINOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

SNOW HAS MOVED IN WITH DROPPING CIGS AND VSBYS. EXPECT KRST/KLSE TO
HOVER IN THE 1-2SM RANGE MOST OF THE TIME...WITH SOME DIP TO 1/2-
3/4SM AT KRST FROM TIME TO TIME. CIGS SHOULD HOLD NEAR 1 KFT...KRST
MOSTLY BELOW AND KLSE MOSTLY ABOVE.

THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL FALL THROUGH MID MORNING
SUNDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS/GUST
OVERNIGHT...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD BE SOME BLSN AT
KRST AS A RESULT...LIKELY CONTINUING SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS EVEN
WHEN ACCUM SNOWS HAVE STOPPED.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ061.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ053>055.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ094>096.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ018-019-
     029-030.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ008>011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RIECK