National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KARX 092007
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
207 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

COLD STRETCH OF DECEMBER WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THIS
WEEK AS UPPER FLOW HOLDS DOOR OPEN TO ARCTIC SURGES FROM THE NORTH.
WILL LIKELY BE BATTLING WIND CHILL RELATED HEADLINES FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS...STARTING WITH TONIGHT.

AS ONE LOW MOVES OUT AFTER PRODUCING GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL
YESTERDAY...ANOTHER ONE ON ITS HEELS. WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...GRADIENT REMAINS UP TODAY AND WITH STEADY TO
DROPPING TEMPERATURES...HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF
20 BELOW OR COLDER OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE DROPS OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. DECENT MID LEVEL Q-G FORCING WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER THIS
EVENING AND SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW GROWTH NOTED IN FAVORED DENDRITIC ZONE
BUT LIFT SEEMS TO BE MAIN FACTOR. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR BUT
WE CONTINUE TO RAISE OVERALL SNOW CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING TO THEIR OVERNIGHT
LOWS BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING WAVE LEVEL
THINGS OUT OR ALLOW A SMALL CLIMB. SOME CONCERN WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE EXTENSIONS.

PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH OUT SNOW QUICKLY TUESDAY
MORNING. QUICK FLOW WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN A
PLAYER AFTER THIS WITH BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND WITH FRESH
SNOW COVER AROUND...LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

HOLIDAY SEASON PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AT NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
INTO MID WEEK AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. NEXT WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DROP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN TONIGHT...AND SHOWS A
LITTLE STRONGER HINT OF FRONTOGENESIS. SO BESIDES HIGHER SNOW THREAT
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOKS ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNETLY THIS WAVE DROPS REINFORCEMENT
OF ARCTIC AIR MAKING FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE A BRUTAL WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN... WIND CHILL ADVISORIES LIKELY IN THESE LATER PERIODS BUT
WILL WORK OUT THOSE DETAILS EACH MORNING TO AVOID DOUBLE OR TRIPLE
HEADLINES.

DETAILS GET MORE SKETCHY IN LATER PERIODS. YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COULD DROP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT GENERALLY QUIETER
WEATHER ON TAP LATTER IN THE WEEK. MORE UPSTREAM WAVES ON TAP THAT
WILL KEEP COLDEST AIRMASS NEARBY BUT SEEMS LIKE AS BROAD AND NEARLY
ZONAL RIDGE FORMS OVER WESTERN U.S. AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MORE
MODERATED BY PACIFIC SOURCE REGION. AT LEAST LETS HOPE SO WE CAN
WARM UP SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW PACK HAS RESULTED
IN SOME BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS HAS CAUSED
VISIBILITIES TO DROP AT RST TO 2-3SM THIS MORNING AND THAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF AROUND
SUNSET. SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN AS TIMES AS WELL WITH LSE SEEMING TO BE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF IT.

WINDS WILL START TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR AS THE NEXT SNOW BAND COMES IN OVERNIGHT.
THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS SNOW APPEARS TO BE AROUND 9Z AT RST AND
11Z AT LSE AND SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR 2-4 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AT 20-30KTS. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME MORE BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT RST
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ032>034.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-029.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094-095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-009-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...HALBACH