Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 262347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
647 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Forecast area enjoying a pleasant spring day after a fairly stormy
past 12-24 hours. Drier/subsident/mostly sunny conditions in place
this afternoon in the wake of the convective complex that exited the
area this morning. Temperatures as of 2 pm were in the 70s to the
lower 80s with dew points in the middle 50s to the lower 60s.

For tonight through Friday night...will be seeing a closed low over
the 4-corners region slowly open and move east into Central Plains.
Deepening/moist southerly flow into the area with embedded weak
troughs expected to result in a general increase in
shower/thunderstorm activity. Mesoscale Convective Allowing Models
showing showers/storms over the Plains through this evening...then
moving this activity northward in a weakening mode...spreading from
south to north across the area late tonight/toward daybreak and then
continuing through the day Friday and into Friday night. CAPE and
Bulk Shear not all that impressive. This...and lack of a good
trigger to fire stronger/deeper convection..looks to limit severe

Otherwise...look for highs Friday in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
dew points increasing into the low/middle 60s for a rather humid day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

For Saturday through Sunday...that trough over the Plains continues
to lift across the Upper Mississippi River Valley for the likelihood
of showers/ least through Saturday night.
Temperature-wise...look for highs Saturday and Sunday in the middle
70s to the lower 80s.

For Monday through Thursday...Shower/thunderstorm chances continue
through the period...highest chances centered Tuesday into Wednesday
as a fairly vigorous low/cold front rolls across the Northern Plains
into the Upper Mississippi River Valley.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected through midnight then thunderstorms
along with MVFR conditions are possible. Cirrus will continue to
thicken across the TAF sites thanks to ongoing thunderstorms
across the Central Plains. A complex of showers and storms looks
to move in form the southwest late tonight into Friday morning.
There is uncertainty as to how widespread the thunderstorm
activity will be since the system is weakening as it moves in.
Have maintained VCTS at the TAF sites starting at 10z at KLSE and
at 08Z at KRST. After that there will be periods of showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm through mid afternoon Friday.


.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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