000
FXUS63 KARX 282338
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
638 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW CONTINUES TO BE ON THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE.

LONGWAVE OMEGA BLOCK IS IN PLACE ACROSS CANADA WHICH IS KEEPING
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...THE MAIN FORCING FOCUS IS ON ANY SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THAT ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AS IT DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. MLCAPE STAYS ON THE WEAK SIDE AT
ABOUT 500J/KG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD WHEN THIS
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
SMALL HAIL WITH 28.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS SKINNY CAPE
IN THE 0C TO -15C RANGE. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH IF THE SHALLOW CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BEYOND TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT WE WILL STAY IN A
COOL PATTERN WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK HOLDING FIRM BUT CONFIDENCE WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THEY WILL MAINLY HANG
ONTO ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING THE CLOSED LOW. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THAT FEATURE SOME STRONGER LIFT INCLUDES FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER TROUGH WOBBLES AROUND THE CUT OFF LOW AND THEN INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
AND BRINGS A FRONT INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF VFR CLOUDS AND CLEARING WILL BE THE
RULE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE MAINLY OVER WI TUESDAY AS
THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES. WOULD EXPECT MORE WEATHER EFFECTS AT
KLSE...WHICH MAY INCLUDE A SHOWER. SHOULD THE WEATHER SYSTEM TRACK
FURTHER WEST...POSSIBLY AN MVFR SHOWER WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS
APPEAR FURTHER EAST OF THE KLSE AIRFIELD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT