878
FXUS63 KARX 151706
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1206 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and muggy today with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

- Widespread showers and storms expected mostly on Wednesday.
  Severe potential remains low at this time as this potential
  will be impacted by how storms evolve Tuesday night.

- Cooler temperatures for the end of the week with highs in the
  70s and low 80s from Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Today-Wednesday: Dry During the Day, Showers and Storms
Beginning Tonight

Southwesterly flow continues for today allowing for good warm
air advection into the region. It will also feel quite muggy
today as dewpoints range from the upper 60s to low 70s.
Upstream, a cold front will gradually shift south through
central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin during the afternoon
and evening. Then this boundary becomes quasi-stationary and
situates itself along the northwestern periphery of our CWA.
Many of the CAMs struggle to get storms past our northwestern
counties during the overnight. If this holds true, then the
environment across much of the forecast area would not have been
influenced or interfered with by those storms, keeping it
cleaner.

Heading into Wednesday morning, a surface low moves into the
region. While this will bring shower and storms, the severe
potential remains low as there are uncertainties with how far
south the boundary from tonight goes. While there looks to be
okay mid-level shear, the low level shear is limited. Another
thing to note is that with the passage of the surface low almost
directly overhead, a wind shift associated with the front that
will gradually shift east during the day, and the previously
mentioned weak low-level shear, landspouts could be possible.
Along the front, gusty winds will be possible as some CAMs are
showing a more defined line of storms beginning near the
Mississippi River and shifting east during the afternoon. With
some slow moving boundaries, outflows, and PWATs between 1.5 and
2 inches, heavy rainfall will be possible. Current forecast has
widespread 0.5 to 0.75 inches across the CWA. NBM probabilities
for greater than 0.75 inches are between 20 and 50% with the
highest probabilities in portions of northeast iowa and western
Wisconsin. Due to the heavy rain potential, WPC has put the
entire CWA in a slight risk for their Excessive Rainfall Outlook
for Wednesday. With the remaining uncertainties of storm
coverage and cloud cover, the temperature spread across the CWA
is quite a bit, ranging from the low 70s in the north to the mid
80s in southwestern and south central Wisconsin.

Thursday-Friday: Mostly Dry, Cooler

Some lingering showers early Thursday morning remain possible
as another shortwave moves through the Upper Midwest. After
this, mostly dry conditions are expected. With west to west-
northwest flow aloft, cooler air will be ushered in behind the
storms from Wednesday and dewpoints will fall into the 50s.
Temperatures are Thursday are looking a little cooler than the
previous forecasts with highs only in the low 70s across much of
the CWA, with a few areas struggling to get above 70F! Thursday
night will have low temperatures in the low to 50s across much
of forecast area with portions of Taylor County staying in the
upper 40s. Depending on cloud cover, favored areas east of the
Mississippi River could also get down into the upper 40s as
illustrated by the NBM 10th percentile. Friday looks to be a
little warmer but remaining dry, with highs in the mid to upper
70s.

Saturday-Tuesday: More Storm Chances?, Warmer

After a couple of days in northwest flow, a more zonal pattern
returns to the Upper Midwest and as a result, warm air advection
also returns. Temperatures climb back into the upper 70s to mid
80s into early next week. With this flow pattern, the risk for
storms increases. While there are uncertainties with timing, a
majority of both the GEFS and EPS members have rain impacting
the forecast area this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through much of tonight, with MVFR
stratus working in from the northwest around sunrise on
Wednesday. This stratus overspreads much of the region aside
from far southwestern WI during the morning with additional
restrictions due to showers and storms possible after 10-12Z in
southeast Minnesota, reaching the LSE area towards 15Z. Winds
today remain from the SSW at 10-15G15-25kts, decreasing and
backing to the E/SE for the morning on Wednesday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Skow