534
FXUS61 KBTV 151818
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
218 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and sunshine will remain in place through mid-
week, though wildfire smoke will likely keep conditions hazy.
Temperatures will climb in the coming days, with afternoon
highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Wednesday will be
the hottest day, with valley locations reaching the mid 90s. An
approaching frontal system from the Great Lakes will bring the
next chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 134 PM EDT Tuesday...The main forecast notes for the near
term will be reduced air quality from wildfire smoke and
increasing temperatures through mid-week.

Light west/southwesterly flow under ridging will allow wildfire
smoke from Canada to continue to spread across the region. Smoke
may lead haze with slightly reduced visibilities, particularly
near the International Border. The smoke may thicken towards the
afternoon based on the latest HRRR/RAP vertically integrated
smoke forecasts which may lead to a colorful sunset. By the
evening, the bulk of smoke should thin out from daytime mixing
and stretched flow aloft. Both the states of NY and VT have
issued Air Quality Alerts due to fine particulates, which will
remain in effect until midnight tonight.

In addition to the smoke, warm air will continue to increase
into the region through mid-week. Little relief is expected
tonight temperature wise. WAA will keep lows in the mid to upper
60s to near 70 overnight. Dry and clearing skies will be the
theme for tonight. By tomorrow, 925mb temperatures will
approach 27C Champlain Valley and near 25C elsewhere. High
temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s in the
valleys and upper 80s to low 90s in the higher terrain. While
there is a trend towards lower dewpoints into the low to mid 60s
from increasing drier air, heat index values in the valleys
will approach 95-100F. As a result, a Heat Advisory has been
issued for tomorrow from noon to 8 PM for dangerous heat
conditions. Be sure to take the necessary precautions if
planning to be outside tomorrow.

An upper shortwave, associated with an approaching frontal
system will work towards the area late Wednesday night. The
latest CAMs suggest a slower moving shortwave which should delay
any precipitation chances until late Wednesday night. However,
can`t totally rule out an isolated passing shower or rumble of
thunder across the St. Lawrence Valley or Adirondacks Wednesday
late evening. Wednesday night will be warmer than tonight with
lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, with some mid 70s across the
Champlain Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 134 PM EDT Tuesday...The approaching trough looks to be
slower moving as a result of a stronger ridge out ahead. Shower
and thunderstorms along a prefrontal trough look to be more
likley early Thursday morning than Wednesday night.
Precipitation chances increase into the day Thursday.
Precipitation looks to be fairly scattered during the day
Thursday, and primarily terrain driven with the main forcing
still to the west of the region. This increase in moisture will
drive dewpoints into the 70s and with the delay of the main
front, will likely drive heat index values back towards heat
advisory criteria in the low to mid 90s. However, if any clouds
or showers linger, these high heat index values will be
conditional. The heat and humidity will help CAPE values to be
near 1500 J/kg with 30-40kts of shear ahead of the front. The
lack of immediate forcing during Thursday afternoon should limit
most of the severe threat, however, given the incident
conditions, some strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.
Furthermore, pooling moisture will help Pwats be around 1.5"
contributing to the potential for heavy rain. The best chances
for any stronger storms will be near sunset. Beyond sunset,
storm chances decrease as the front pushes through Thursday
night with weakened potential energy. Finally some heat relief
will filter in Thursday night with lows into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 134 PM EDT Tuesday...After the stretch of heat earlier in the
week, a cold front will finally push through the region Thursday
night into Friday bringing much more comfortable conditions. High
temperatures will climb into the 70s to low 80s Friday afternoon,
with dewpoints only in the 50s making it feel quite comfortable
after the prior warmth and humidity. Overnight lows Friday night
will be cool, dropping into the 50s with some of the colder
locations dropping down into the upper 40s. Seasonable weather looks
to continue through the day Saturday, with rain chances return for
Sunday although there is still some uncertainty with the exact
timing this far out. Seasonable conditions look to continue as we
head into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions currently prevail across
all terminals this afternoon, with mostly clear skies.
Visibilities have been reduced to 5-6SM at times due to wildfire
smoke and haze across the region, especially across more
northern terminals but generally visibilities have been VFR.
Some guidance suggests that additional fog may develop tonight,
especially in the more favored areas like KMPV, however the
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF forecast at
this time. Winds continue to remain light and terrain driven
throughout most of the forecast period, becoming more southerly
by tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The current forecast highs for Tuesday and especially Wednesday
will be within a few degrees of daily record highs, which are
listed below.


July 15:
KBTV: 93/2013

July 16:
KBTV: 96/2018
KMPV: 92/1969
KPBG: 95/1969
KMSS: 94/2018
KSLK: 90/1997

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for VTZ001-002-
     005-009.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ026>028-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...WFO BTV