Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 042008
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
408 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure meanders in the Gulf of Maine through Friday. This
low then slowly exits to the southeast through Saturday night.
High pressure builds in from the northwest behind this system
Sunday through Wednesday. Low pressure approaches from the west on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure is drifting in the Gulf of Maine tonight as it
meanders with the 500mb trof cutting off and vertically
stacking. Models in decent agreement of the low drifting to
around Penobscot Bay before turning back westerly into tomorrow
afternoon. This will keep precipitation going into tomorrow
with slight warming of the boundary layer through the night
turning precip into rain/snow mix in southern and south-central
zones with snow continuing across the north. Winds are gradually
falling this evening but expecting accumulating heavy wet snow
plus gusty E-NE winds likely knocking out power from tree damage
through the night. Downslope off the Miramichi Highlands of New
Brunswick will keep totals low for the Route 1-1A corridor in
Eastern Aroostook County but totals ramp up westward. Expecting
wintry precip to mix with rain this evening from south to north
that will result in a gradual dropping of the winter headlines.
This long duration will continue to pose travel impacts and
possible power outages into tomorrow. Tomorrow, the low
continues to drift over the Gulf of Maine with light snow north
and rain/snow mix south. Expecting light accumulations to
continue before the precip becomes light enough the high sun
angle for early April keeps precip accumulating on roads.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The short term is dominated by a large scale omega block over
eastern North America. Vertically stacked low pressure remains
over the forecast area Friday night and slowly drifts southward
Saturday into Sunday. The blocking high moves southeastward
into the area through the period. As the high builds, conditions
gradually dry out Saturday night into Sunday. Precipitation
amounts will be light for Friday night through Saturday night
with total QPF around one to two tenths of an inch. Cannot rule
out an inch or two of snow Friday night, especially in higher
upslope terrain such as the Katahdin region and southern
Piscataquis County. Above freezing temps and light precip should
minimize any snow accumulations Saturday.

Little or no precip is expected Sunday, just residual
stratocumulus. The clouds will break up from the west Sunday.
Fewer and thinner clouds will allow highs to recover into the
mid 40s.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The high building in Sunday night will bring very dry Canadian
air into the area into Wednesday. No precipitation is
expected through Wednesday.

There is a backdoor cold front expected Monday night, but for
the day of the eclipse, little cloud cover is expected. In fact,
warm advection ahead of the front will produce the warmest day
of the year so far across the forecast area. The rapid warming
will likely create very muddy conditions for eclipse tourists
straying off paved roads across remote northern Maine.

PWs drop towards 0.20 inches. While a northerly low level flow
and ridging aloft usually brings concerns of stratocumulus
fields, dew point depressions are such that little if any low
cloudiness can be anticipated. Cannot rule out some higher
clouds towards H5 or higher, but nothing suggests significant
cirrus coverage at this point.

The backdoor cold front ushers in cooler temps Monday night into
Tuesday, but warmer temperatures back into the 50s return
Wednesday into Thursday.

Chances for rain increase Thursday into late week. Confidence is
high in an all-rain event, but the exact timing and evolution
of the system remains in question. This system will likely bring
deep southern stream moisture with a shot at another significant
slug of precip. Given the recent heavy snowfall and this
potential rainfall, hydro concerns may return to the forefront.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Northern Terms...IFR/LIFR with SN & BLSN. Vsby less
than 1/4mi at times. NE winds 10-20kt with gusts up to 35kt
slowly weakening through the night. LLWS likely. Tomorrow,
MVFR/IFR with -SN. NE winds 15-25kt.

Southern Terms...IFR/LIFR with SN or PL. SN becoming RASN
tonight. NE winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 40kt possible.
Tomorrow, MVFR/IFR with RASN or RA. E-NE winds 10-15kt with
gusts up to 25kt.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday...MVFR cigs probable in the morning, becoming VFR in the
afternoon. North winds 10 to 15 kt.

Sunday night into Tuesday...VFR. North winds 5 to 10 kt,
becoming light by Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Storm Warning into this evening before falling to
Gales then SCAs by morning. Easterly winds tonight till low
pressure drifts near the waters and expecting shift southerly.
Seas generally 15-20ft subsiding to 8-10ft tomorrow. Vsby
reduced in rain and snow through tomorrow.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions will persist Friday night through
Sunday. Seas will remain above criteria all weekend. Wind gusts
will exceed 25 kt Saturday night through Sunday. Lighter winds
and diminishing seas are expected Sunday night well into next
week with no advisories or warnings anticipated.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some minor coastal flooding is possible with this system, mainly
with this evening high tide around 755PM. A surge of one to two
feet is expected along with seas up to around 17 feet not far
off the coast, but a few things are working against it being a
notable event for us. First, tides themselves are not that high.
Second, the high tide Thu evening is after the highest surge.
Third, low level winds are from the E, which is typically not
favorable for the largest waves to make it to shore. That said,
some minor coastal erosion is possible as some of the most
susceptible spots, mainly east-facing areas. A Coastal Flood
Statement is in effect.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM EDT Friday for MEZ001-003>006.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for MEZ002.
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for MEZ010-011-031-
     032.
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Sinko/MCW
Marine...Sinko/MCW
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Sinko


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