Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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839 ACUS01 KWNS 182000 SWODY1 SPC AC 181958 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging winds remain possible in the western Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...20Z Update... Cloud cover has remained across portions of southeast Georgia into North Florida. Furthermore, outflow from convection has surged south of Jacksonville. Storms are initiating on this boundary, but are quickly being undercut. Wind probabilities have been reduced in these areas as the environment has generally become more stable in the wake of the boundary. A few marginal supercells have develop both near/north of Orlando and along the sea breeze boundary in eastern Florida, the 5% wind/hail probabilities have been adjusted to account for this activity. The 15Z Cape Canaveral sounding showed 7.3 C/km mid-level lapse rates and 43 kts of effective shear. Marginally severe hail and damaging winds are possible, but weak mid-level ascent and warmer temperatures aloft (-7 C) should limit overall storm organization/intensity. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged other than adjustments to the general thunderstorm areas to account for current observations. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...North FL/South GA... A persistent band of widespread showers and thunderstorms extends from the FL Panhandle into southern GA. This band will sag southward through the day, with occasional intensification along the leading edge as daytime heating destabilizes the upstream environment. Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the main threat. ...FL East Coast... Strong heating is occurring along the FL peninsula, where hot/humid conditions will be present this afternoon. Westerly low-level flow will focus a rather strong sea-breeze circulation, with most CAM solutions suggesting scattered thunderstorm development. It is uncertain whether the activity will be along the immediate coastline, or offshore. However, sufficient vertical shear and CAPE profiles indicate a risk of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado/waterspout or two. ...Western Great Lakes into Central Plains... A surface cold front will extend from western WI into parts of IA/MO/KS by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front from the MN Arrowhead southward into western WI, with more isolated convection from there southward into the Plains states. Forecast soundings in MI/WI/Upper MI show favorable vertical shear profiles for a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk area for that scenario. From IA south, relatively weak winds in the lowest 6km and a deep sub-cloud layer suggest outflow dominant storms with a more marginal severe threat. ...CO/Western KS... Model guidance and water vapor imagery show a plume of mid-level moisture spreading into central CO. This should result in a cluster of thunderstorms over the mountains by mid-afternoon, spreading eastward into the Plains this evening. Inverted-v sounding profiles and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote gusty/damaging wind potential in some of this activity. ...MS/AL into the Carolinas... A relatively moist and unstable air mass is in place today across the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Little cap and pockets of daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region - with some potential for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. Areas of slightly greater focus for concern of strong storms are 1) Ahead of the MCV currently over northern MS, and 2) an axis from northern AL into central NC along the northern edge of slightly stronger winds aloft. $$