Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KFGF 311445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
945 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Issued at 945 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Seeing some morning sun over portions of southeast ND, with pretty
thick clouds over northeast ND and most of MN. With the sfc low
somewhere up in north central ND, wind directions were all over
the place. However, still expect the gustier winds today to be
south of the sfc low, or from southern ND pushing into western MN
thru the day. With some morning heating, there could still be a
few afternoon showers and weaker storms. Overall few adjustments
were needed to the forecast at this point.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Forecast challenges concern pcpn chances/coverage, temperatures
and funnel/weak tornado potential over the far nw this afternoon.
Models overall in good agreement and will follow high resolution
model guidance for pops.

Surface low over the central valley will propagate NW as it phases
with approaching upper low by this evening. By late afternoon
surface low center should be along US/Canadian border area of N central
ND or NW of our forecast area. Later this afternoon LI`s drop
just below zero vcnty low however minimal cape generated by
models. T chances look low but cannot rule it out. At this point
with surface low to our NW and attendant boundaries either north
or west of the area feel there is a low threat for funnel or weak
tornado spin ups but this will need to be monitored if low ends up
farther south and east. Elsewhere arcing rain area should be
across the far north and east of the valley. Dry slotting should
keep the remainder of the FA dry. Temperatures within dry slot
should range not too far from average with much cooler values over
the far north and east.

Upper low will begin to drift east across the northern fa tonight.
best convergence will be across the north with wrap around more
spotty farther south. Minimum temperatures a few degrees either
side of 50 expected.

Low will continue to propagate eastward Wednesday into ontario.
Rain associated with the low will gradually end from west to east
during the day. With much cooler column overhead temperatures will
range 10 to 15 degrees below average.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Ridge of high pressure builds in behind departing low. with
clearing and light winds temperatures will drop into the 40s.

Return flow/warm advection sets up mainly from valley west and
with solar temperatures should recover back up close to average.
coolest temperatures will be over the far ne last to see above.

Next digging short wave will bring rain chances back to the
region Thursday night.

Friday to Monday night...Period to start with a short wave that
models have been consistent with, bringing a round of convection to
the area for the first half of the weekend. CHC POPS Friday into
Saturday with eastern areas more likely to see PCPN. Temps for the
period near normal with highs in mid 70s and lows in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Very challenging aviation period concerning CIGS and wind
direction. Surface low currently between DVL and MOT. The low is
expected to drift westward as it merges with an approaching upper
low. A boundary extends from the low roughly bisecting the
forecast area from NW-SE. Ahead of the boundary winds are SE,
behind the boundary SW. Have followed guidance on wshft as
boundary lifts northward during the day. Any deviations will
affect wind direction at TAF sites. CIGS also a challenge.
Expecting CIGS to lift into VFR in dry slot. DVL, TVF, and BJI
will be more of a challenge being in proximity of sfc low or above
mentioned boundary. These sites may hold on to lower CIGs longer
or be more variable. |


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.