Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 212107
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
307 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Still hardly a cloud in the sky across the area, so it is a good
day to see the power of the late February sun at work. Afternoon
high at Bemidji has risen to 21F, while most other areas are
around 10F. May see a few clouds around tonight with fairly light
south winds. More clouds move in from south to north on Thursday,
with chances for light snow picking up by afternoon, mainly along
the ND/SD border. Still looks like some banding potential with
this, or the potential for some higher snow totals across the far
southern Red River Valley into west central Minnesota. Still
early, but it looks like 3-4 inches are possible in the above
mentioned area. After coordinating with neighboring offices, will
issue a winter weather advisory for Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night to cover this. Good thing this time around is that
wind speeds look to stay pretty low, so no compounded impacts from
that.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Thu night and Fri...The northern trend to low pressure and
associated pcpn continues with the 12z deterministic forecast
cycle. the GFS though continues to stick with with lower QPF and
keeps snow mostly in west central Minnesota. The NAM remains the
most robust with nearly 0.40 inch while the GFS has about half
that. The frontogenesis featured with the NAM would be associated
with the potential banding to produce the higher amounts. Advisory
type impacts would certainly be possible with actual snowfall
amounts likely winding up in the 2 to 5 inch range. Wind will not
be a factor this time around with the easterlies sustained at only
10 mph. The event should close out by mid morning Fri.

Sat through Wed...The next chance for snow comes Saturday as a
surface low moves into the Midwest and here again a track that
would favor our south and southeast forecast area seems likely.
This system would be a more potent Colorado low, but at this time
at least, it looks like it would offer a more glancing blow to the
southeast forecast area. Beyond this time quiet weather is to be
expected with more moderate areas of high pressure traversing the
region. Thus, an average temperature regime would be likely with
daytime highs well up in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

VFR conditions will continue across the area for the remainder of
the forecast period. Winds will be from the south or southwest,
and will become lighter overnight, and will slowly pick up in
speed again tomorrow morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Godon/Wilson


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