Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251901
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
101 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

RAISED TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY IN THE DVL
BASIN. AREAS RADARS SHOWING VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MOVING INTO
NORTH CENTRAL ND. ELSEWHERE STRONGER RETURNS WERE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN SD AND MAY BRUSH FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER SURFACE OBS
SHOW NO SNOW NORTH OF KATY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST
ONTARIO AND WAS MOVING EAST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER
SOUTHERN SASK WITH SOME FLURRIES OVER SOUTHERN SASK. TROUGH WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EAST. FLURRIES MORE
LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP FLURRIES AS IS. TWEAKED
WINDS DOWN A BIT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES. NAM/GEM COMING AROUND TO MORE CONSISTENT...FARTHER
SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WILL FOLLOW LATER FOR FORECAST.

MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ORGANIZING SNOW BAND IN ZONE OF
INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS NORTH HALF OF SD INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MN. THE ND/SD BORDER AREA REMAINS ON NORTHERN
FRINGE HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT TRIMMED BACK ON POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE
BORDER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
COLD FRONT STEADY COLD ADVECTION TODAY. COMBINED WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS FLURRIES A GOOD BET. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FZDZ HOWEVER UNTIL WE RECEIVE REPORTS WILL LEAVE OUT OF
FORECAST. WITH STRATUS SPREADING BACK INTO THE FA ANY TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL IF AT ALL.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON
HOW MUCH OF THE FA CAN LOSE CLOUDS. ANY DECREASING CLOUD POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FA AND WILL HAVE COLDEST MINIMUMS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FRIDAY. WITH DRYING COLUMN
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOLAR ACROSS THE REGION. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF AND LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND SO
FORECASTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE A CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT
HELD PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO SEEP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FA FOR CONTINUED DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE TREND.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW STILL LOOKS SAT NIGHT AS WEAK IMPULSE DROPS
SE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG 1050MB+ ARCTIC SFC HIGH
WHICH WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR EARLY WEEK. THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ON SUNDAY WITH THE
BOUNDARY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR MON/TUE. TEMPS
MAY STAY NEAR OR BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY IN SOME AREAS
MON/TUE...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF DEEP SNOWCOVER IN MANY AREAS MAY
IMPACT TEMPS. THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING
THE MID-WEEK TIME...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AFFECTING THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE/SFC TEMPS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.
REGARDLESS...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND FOR DURATION OF UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH SOME SHORT LIVED IFR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE N-NW WINDS AOB 10KTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...WJB




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