Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 021957
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS HAVE
PULSED UP BUT NOT REACHED SEVERE AND ARE SLOW MOVING. CAM MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 03Z OR SO. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF ML CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. THINK THAT STORMS SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THAT REGION WILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH CANADA. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH AS DISSIPATED.

TOMORROW...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVEN SOME NAM CAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG DOES NOT SEE OUT OF THE QUESTION. LIKE
TODAY...SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE.
INCLUDED SOME 30-40 POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE
BY THE LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING...BUT THINK THAT THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EXACTLY HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON HOW ANY
MORNING ACTIVITY BEHAVES AND WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...SO SOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED SOME
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BEGINNING TO COOL OFF INTO THE 70S AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL ENJOY DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND A PERIOD OF MID WEEK SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION TONIGHT AND
CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD TS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTN...MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 200. WILL KEEP ONLY A MENTION OF
VCNTY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT AND UPDATED TO TS OR ONSTATION AS NEEDED.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO TEMPO YET. OTHER THAN THAT...VFR
CONDS WITH LOWER CIGS AT DVL NOW DISSIPATING BUT SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER


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