000
FXUS63 KFGF 170850
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND SNOW SYSTEM TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE GEM (CANADIAN) WHICH LAST NIGHT WAS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION
LOOKS TO BE THE WINNER AS ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH SURFACE LOW TRACK AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW
FALL. THIS WILL SPARE MOST IF NOT NEARLY ALL OF THE FA FROM
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING BAND OF RETURNS FROM CENTRAL ND SE
INTO NE SD JUST AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS LOOK TO BE
OVER DOING QPF AS HAVE YET TO SEE ANY GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS
WITH CIGS IN VCNTY STILL IN THE MID LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
END POPS ACROSS THIS AREA TO BE SAFE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THIS BAND IN THE MID 30S EXPECT ANY PCPN REACHING THE GROUND TO BE
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE REMAINDER
OF FA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTING OUT MILD
AND WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO INHERITED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE LOW PROPAGATES TO THE SE CORNER OF SD BY MORNING.
DEFORMATION SNOW BAND WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE BY MIDNIGHT AS COLUMN
COOLS AND CONTINUES TUESDAY. COULD INITIALLY SEE A BRIEF MIX
HOWEVER SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. HOW FAR NORTH THE BAND WILL REACH
IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEPING MAIN SNOW BAND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GFS AND NAM ARE FARTHER NORTH BUT HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE WITH THESE
SOLUTIONS. MADE A SIGNIFICANT CUT IN POPS FARTHER NORTH AS LITTLE
OR SNOW NOW EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERN SOLUTION. WITH EVENT LATER
TONIGHT FEEL ONE LAST LOOK AT FUTURE MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING WILL
DETERMINE IF SNOW AMOUNTS WORTHY OF HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY.
COLUMN COOLS OVERNIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
DROP.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SE TUESDAY MORNING DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT ANY RECOVERY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

SNOW WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
HINGING ON DEGREE OF CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ONLY CHC OF PCPN FOR THE AREA IS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE FLATTENS THE NW FLOW AND
BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
WITH ANOTHER COLD SNAP INSTORE FOR THE WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S...THEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
FOR SAT AND SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

FOR THE MOST PART KEEPING VFR CIGS THRU THE PD. SOUTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS LOW ORGANIZES TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH MONDAY
AFTN. MODELS MOS FCSTS WANT TO BRING DOWN CIGS BUT DONT SEE THAT
MUCH SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THRU MONDAY EVE BUT DID GO INTO
LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS TOWARD 00Z TUE. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY 00Z TUES. KEPT TAF SITES DRY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE