000
FXUS63 KFGF 251747
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE T CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED ALONG VALLEY. AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY AIRMASS MODESTLY UNSTABLE ALONG WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES. WATER VAPOR INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. SO WHILE FORCING WEAK WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE HELD AROUND AND
THICKER THAN EXPECTED. BASED ON TIMING OF CLOUDS WORKING EAST HAD
TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST AND HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
FURTHER SOUTH OVER MN. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND THERE IS STILL THE TROUGH AXIS THAT
IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS
EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING STORMS OVER WESTERN ND
AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
AND WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH SOME
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET TO SET OFF SOME
STORMS OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND. THE STORMS WERE
JUST UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

TODAY...THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME WITH MOST OF THE BEST FORCING
OFF TO THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE PAST OUR COUNTIES BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STRENGTH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SASK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY TOMORROW. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOVE EAST...THIS
TIME DROPPING A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY FOR SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW WENT LOW 70S IN THE NORTH
TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK...UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SFC HIGH...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE THE LOWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOL WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
START THE WEEK. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...WITH ANY
LOW MID-WEEK PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDENT ON LOW PREDICTABILITY LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING OVER THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

RESIDUAL SCT MVFR CIGS FROM EARLY AM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WED
ACROSS NR MN...LIFTING AND ERODING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
ORV THE RRV. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST BY EVENING.
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO SE RN SASK... WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 200.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST