Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1147 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Fcst on track and no changes made to overnight temps. Tweeked sky
some more as sharp edge from clear to clouds holding ROX-BJI line.
Short range models continue to hold it near that line overnight
but shift it west a bit Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Main forecast challenges will be decreasing winds tonight followed
by frost chances tonight and Tuesday night. Winds have generally
been a little lower this afternoon than they were yesterday, but
there are still a few sites that have been brushing with advisory
criteria again. However, it has not been long enough or widespread
enough to justify another advisory. Morning showers over the far
northeast have moved east of the FA, so will not include any more
mention of them tonight. Winds will get lightest west of the Red
River Valley tonight, and with the dry air in place should see
some frost there. For that reason issued a frost advisory for that
area tonight. Expect less wind on Tuesday, but there could be a
few more showers in the far east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Tuesday night through the end of the week will be predominately
dry with moderating temperatures. First concern will be Wednesday
morning with the SFC high pressure system over the FA there will be
frost potential along and west of the valley. Clouds and better
mixing to leave the eastern areas with less potential for temps to
drop off. 500mb ridging continues to build over the central US and
into southern Canada Wednesday into Thursday and Friday. This will
allow daytime highs to reach into the upper 60s and low 70s
Wednesday through Sunday. Some chance PoPs work into the FA with
500mb SW flow by Sunday and Monday with moisture limited.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Tricky part will be how far west the clouds will shift thru the
next 12-18 hours. 00z short range models continue idea of shifting
clouds a bit west and southwest esp in the 12z-18z period. Bemidji
will go back in the clouds and forecast to drop into MVFR range
late tonight into Tuesday. TVF will likely have a period of MVFR
cigs as well Tuesday but less certain on this. Threw in some
scattered VFR clouds GFK but worse case would bring some high end
MVFR cigs into GFK as well. DVL clear and Fargo should be VFR too
though not impossible edge of clouds will move into them too
Tuesday midday-aftn. Northwest winds 10-15 kts gusts 18-25 kts.


ND...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-



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