Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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102
FXUS63 KFGF 062003
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
303 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

WINDS... FIRE WEATHER... AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
OF THIS DISCUSSION. COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLEAR THE REST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES... BUT THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE A DECENT GRADIENT
AND SOME MIXING WITH LOW DEWPOINTS. FIRE WEATHER WILL THEREFORE BE
A CONCERN. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 60S
AND LOW 70S SATURDAY... COOLER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY
CLEAR EVENING SATURDAY... TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
WOBBLE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. STILL A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD AS TO
THE SPECIFICS ON VARIOUS SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT SEEMS THAT THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM AND BEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ON
MONDAY...BUT OTHERS ARE STILL BRINGING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL KEEP SOME POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THINK IT MAY BE A CASE WHERE IT TAKES A WHILE FOR MOISTURE TO
ARRIVE. TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 500MB LOW FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
STARTING A PROLONGED WETTER PERIOD. THIS INITIAL LOW GETS ABSORBED
INTO A BROAD TROUGH EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS KEEPS EITHER
A 500MB LOW OR A TROUGH OVER THE FA INTO THU...WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS EVEN LINGERING PCPN CHANCES INTO THU NIGHT AND FRI. NOT
SEEING MUCH INSTABILITY OVERALL...SO AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WETTING RAIN NOT HEAVY RAIN. ALONG WITH THE
CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PCPN...TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE TAFS IS THE WIND. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY AT
OR NEAR THE KFAR/KBJI AREAS AND HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE OTHER
TAF SITES. EXPECTING GUSTY NORTH WINDS UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDOWN WHEN
THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE ONLY DEALING WITH A LITTLE
BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DRIFTING OVER THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS AS THEY ARE FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN...AND ARE FALLING OUT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL TEMPERATURES COOL AND WINDS
SUBSIDE.

FOR SATURDAY...ALL AREAS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DUE TO EXPECTED HUMIDITY NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT...WITH WIND
SPEEDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE
20 MPH (AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS AREA).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-028-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR/HEEREN
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...TG



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