000
FXUS63 KFGF 241808
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
108 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Main change was to remove any thunder mention in NW MN this aftn
as just not unstable enough. Some sfc heating with temps nr 60
BJI/PKD area but will need to see warmer temps to get enough
instability for thunder. Otherwise high pops for area of shra/dz
moving south into the nrn RRV and NW MN this aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Challenge will be rain shower placement with passage of upper low
and def zone rain band across the northern FA this afternoon.
Clouds and rain showers combined with NW winds sustained between
15 to 25 mph, from east to west, will create an unseasonably cool
and raw last saturday of June with max temps for much of the area
held under 60F.

Center of the upper low moving into SE ND this morning with an
area of showers heading for the southern Red River valley. Second
area of rain expected to move into the Devils Lake basin and
northern valley late this morning to early afternoon as band of
700mb Omega slides south with the upper low. Primarily showers
with a thunder chance in the east as some instability may develop
this afternoon. Area of rain will move to the east overnight with
temps falling into the 40s with clearing commencing in the
evening form west to east behind the exiting system. Generally
less than a tenth total of rain with some spots seeing up to a
quarter of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Sunday will see another day in the 60s as the FA remains under the
influence of the cyclonic 500mb flow and associated cloudy and
cool canadian airmass. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
will be possible in the afternoon with model soundings indicating
some instability with negative LIs developing in the afternoon.
SFC high pressure will work into the area Sunday night with a cool
morning setting up on Monday with lows in the 40s expected.
Moderating temps begin Monday as 500mb ridging and blyr thermal
profile warms. Max temps on Monday much closer to end of June
normals with low to mid 70s expected.

Tuesday to Friday Night...
The extended period begins with upper level ridging shifting over
the forecast area bringing warmer temperatures. Surface winds will
turn south and increase ahead of the next front, which will move
through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Anticipate increased moisture
on the nose of a 30 to 35-knot low level jet. Models also indicate
increased instability ahead of the system so expect increased
chances for thunder, especially in far eastern portions of North
Dakota and into Minnesota.

By Wednesday, as the system passes, expect some slight cooling and
breezy conditions, with scattered showers and some thunder possible.
Otherwise, looking for more zonal flow aloft along the Canadian
border. Impulses traversing the flow will help increase the chances
for showers through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Expect MVFR cigs GFK/DVL/TVF into the evening with locally reduced
vsbys to IFR range in drizzle. BJI area to see conditions lower
later this aftn/tonight with some IFR cigs/vsbys psbl. DVL on the
MVFR/VFR edge but will see improving conditions tonight. North to
northwest winds continue 12 to 25 kts, diminishing tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Hopkins/JK
AVIATION...Riddle