Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 230427
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1127 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A BIT OF A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL PUSHING INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AREA ON LEADING MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS CRAWLING NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. FORCING
ENCOUNTERING DRIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH...AND LARGER
SCALE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHEAR TO A GREATER DEGREE PUSHING
NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS LEADING BAND OF PRECIPITATION
TO WEAKEN AND LARGELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND AREA
CURRENTLY CLOSER TO THE STRONGER PV GRADIENT NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-80 IN NEBRASKA TO WORK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REWORK POPS TOWARD A BIT MORE
CERTAINTY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH LATER IN THE NIGHT...AND EVEN
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE AREA LIFTS NORTHWARD.

AREA OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH RAIN HAS DEVELOPED A DECENT
MESOHIGH...WITH RADAR SHOWING PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW PULSES PUSHING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. AS THE RAIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
DWINDLE...WILL SEE AREAS TO THE NORTH WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AFTER
DARK...AND GRADUALLY BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DEALING WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN STILL RISEN INTO THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONTINUED FETCH OF DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THIS CORRIDOR AND
WEAK OVERALL LIFT HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND AMOUNTS.

BY THIS EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WAVE SLOWLY PIVOTING
NORTHWARD...ALL THE WHILE BECOMING MORE LATITUDINALLY STRETCHED.
NEVERTHELESS...CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

AM ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN RAIN THROUGH THE HEART OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  HOWEVER...NEXT
SURGE IN MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
SHOULD BREAK OUT AGAIN.  INSTABILITY REALLY LOOKS MEAGER THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY...BUT JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE INCREASES MORE
DRAMATICALLY AND A MID LEVEL WAVE LIFT NORTHWARD. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL THUNDER THREAT IS LOW.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WITH A POSSIBLY A SMALL BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MIDDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY.
STILL APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS WEAK DURING THIS
PERIOD...THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL TO NON-
EXISTENT.

THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TREKING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRIER AIR BRIEFLY RETURNS AS THE LOW EXITS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO FINALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE
AREA.

ACTIVE WEATHER RESUMES LATE IN THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
DIRECTS A SHORTWAVE OUR WAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATE WEEK. LOOK FOR A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY VFR FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH RIDGING
ALOFT LEAVING A LOWER THAN MENTIONABLE LEVEL OF RAIN THREAT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BY THE FINAL 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD...
PROSPECT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE...AS WILL THE CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING SOME MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN


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