Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 200355
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1055 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH LIMITED IF ANY
MOISTURE. THIS IS WHY WE ARE HAVING TROUBLE EVEN GETTING SPRINKLES
TODAY. WITH THIS IN MIND CUT BACK ON POPS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
THEN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA AND A WEAK WAVE MOVING
THROUGH NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THE SUPPORT IS THERE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY NOT NEARLY HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...ESPECIALLY WHERE
CLOUDS HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE FAR NORTHERN CWA COULD
DROP A BIT AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND CLOUDS DECREASE. AIMING FOR AROUND
40 IN THE NORTH AND 50 TO 55 FAR SOUTH.

AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY APPEAR TO AGAIN BE IN NORTHWEST IOWA...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL PARTS OF SD ALONG AN
INCOMING VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT NOT BANKING ON MUCH THERE. HOWEVER...AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A
BREAK FROM SHOWERS MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH...ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONG WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...INSTABILITY NOT REAL GOOD SO SEVERE IS NOT
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AND ABOUT 10 TO
15 MPH SO WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED.
IF SHOWERS CAN LINGER THROUGH THE DAY IN NORTHWEST IOWA HIGHS WILL
LIKELY END UP CLOSER TO 65 BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A LONG ENOUGH
BREAK BETWEEN WAVES TO SUPPORT SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODESTLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR WILL STILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH...SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL ACTUALLY BE PEAKING AS THE
EVENING STARTS...SO HAVE GONE WITH THUNDER FOR THE EVENING
PRECIPITATION. LATER AT NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL STEADILY DECREASE AND
END AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND A
NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
A BREEZY BUT BRIGHT MONDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MONDAY HIGHS. THE
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE INCOMING HIGH SHOULD MOSTLY PUT THE
LID ON CU DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS BEGINNING TO
TRANSITION TO AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE FROM THE WEST. ANY
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...AS IT
WILL TAKE AT LEAST UNTIL THEN FOR THE INCREASING FLOW TO BRING
ENOUGH MOISTURE BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WITH THE THERMAL PATTERN AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PEAKING DURING THAT
TIME...AND THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN. THE
PEAK RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY IN THE
EAST. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE INSTABILITY INCREASE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO THREATEN SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODESTLY
WARM THURSDAY WITH THE BEST WARMING AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY WITH DECENT SHOWER
COVERAGE EXPECTED...AND OF COURSE COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT MAY PERSIST FRIDAY IN THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. A DRY PERIOD WITHOUT A PRECIPITATION THREAT SEEMS
LIKELY ABOUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT IT IS HARD TO PIN THE
TIMING DOWN FOR NOW WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING RAPIDLY FROM THE
WEST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE AND HAVE A FAIRLY SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE COOL FRIDAY AND WARM JUST A LITTLE
FOR SATURDAY. THIS IS REPEATING A PATTERN OF THE UPPER RIDGING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS NEVER BECOMING ESTABLISHED THIS FAR NORTH...LIMITING
ANY WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. A WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE KSUX TAF SITE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
WIND DIRECTIONS ARE A BIT TRICKY FOR THAT SITE. BUT AGAIN...WINDS
LOOK LIGHT AT ANY RATE. FOR NOW...ONLY MENTIONED PRECIPITATION FOR
THE KSUX TAF SITE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY GIVING SOME RAINFALL FOR THAT
AREA. AND CURRENTLY THERE ARE SOME DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEB MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD. BUT OTHERWISE FOR NOW...LEFT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX DRY
AS CHANCES LOOK TOO SKIDDISH TO MENTION RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ANY GIVEN POINT LOCATION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ






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